Breakdowns

Week 12 Havoc Rate Mismatches

Havoc rate is a statistic that attempts to capture an offense’s ability to prevent negative plays and a defense’s ability to create negative plays. We have altered and expanded the traditional formula to include third- and fourth-down failures/stops.

Havoc Rate Leaderboards

The Offense and Defense leaderboards heading into Week 12 (as well as their rates expressed in standard deviations) are as follows:

Using Havoc, what are the projected Week 12 mismatches? The top 10:

Steelers Defense vs. Ravens Offense

This game, which has been rescheduled to Sunday afternoon, features the undefeated Steelers hosting the sliding Ravens. Havoc projects an advantage for a Steelers defense that ranks first in Defensive Havoc Created (60.9%) vs. a Ravens offense that ranks 17th in Offensive Havoc Allowed (-30.5%). Looking back at the Steelers’ Week 8 victory, the final score (28-24) was misleading. The Ravens outgained the Steelers by 236 yards, winning the yards per play battle by 1.4 yards. So how did the Steelers prevail? Defensive Havoc Created. Despite the overwhelming yardage disadvantage, the Steelers created timely Defensive Havoc:

The Ravens will need to avoid negative plays against the league’s best defense in creating them. Unfortunately for the Ravens, the matchup favors the Steelers defense in several categories:

Buccaneers Offense vs. Chiefs Defense

Both teams come into this game fresh off national TV appearances. While the Chiefs got it done in prime time against the Raiders, the Buccaneers lost a close game against the Rams. Havoc projects an advantage for a Buccaneers offense that ranks sixth in Offensive Havoc Allowed (-30.6%) vs. a Chiefs defense that ranks 19th in Defensive Havoc Created (-30.5%). The volatile Buccaneers offense has struggled in four straight prime time games, each time against defenses that rank in the top half of the league in Defensive Havoc Created: Bears (8th), Giants (11th), Saints (2nd) and Rams (14th). In all four games, the offense has underperformed their season averages in Points (29.1, 2nd) and Havoc (30.6%, 6th):

Tom Brady and the Bucs now get the chance to rebound against the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs. While the Chiefs field the league’s best offense, their defense has been average. An underrated aspect of the Chiefs-Raiders game was how poor the K.C. defense was at generating negative plays:

Tampa has scored over 30 points in five of their seven wins, against teams that ranked 29th (CAR), 17th (LAC), 24th (GB) and 21st (LVR) in Defensive Havoc Created. This week, the Tampa Bay offense has slight advantages they will need to capitalize on to keep up with Patrick Mahomes:

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