NFL Analysis
1/3/25
14 min read
2025 NFL Free Agency: Players Set To Hit Pay Dirt This Offseason
As Sam Darnold prepares to face the Detroit Lions on Sunday night in the biggest game of his career (before his first playoff appearance is even bigger), speculation has begun on whether the Vikings quarterback on a one-year deal will re-sign in Minnesota or move on to greener pastures in free agency.
One thing is clear — barring a collapse in the next few weeks, Darnold, who was just selected to his first Pro Bowl, is set to be one of the biggest winners among pending free agents.
Plenty of other players are poised to cash in after excellent seasons or with a fine track record over several years as they hit free agency.
Here’s my list of a dozen such players, including six on each side of the ball:
OFFENSE
SAM DARNOLD, QB, MINNESOTA VIKINGS 
Despite drafting J.J. McCarthy 10th overall in 2024, Sam Darnold should be the top priority for the Vikings to re-sign for several years or franchise at an estimated $40 million on the one-year tender after his outstanding season. Darnold earned $10 million this season on his one-year deal.
If he hits the free agent market, the 27-year-old Darnold will be in demand with few quality free agent quarterbacks potentially available and a draft class lacking the star power of the 2024 class that had five first-rounders.
Darnold is finishing a career season in which he has led the Vikings to a 14-2 record, which is the most wins by a quarterback in his first year with a team. He has 13 games with a 100-plus passer rating, one short of tying Aaron Rodgers’ record set in 2020 (which Darnold can accomplish on Sunday).
The scene of Darnold being mobbed by his teammates after his career-best 377-yard passing day in last week’s win against the Packers shows how popular Darnold is with his teammates, who respect his journey from Jets high first-round bust to expected bridge quarterback to now a player on a 14-win season (and counting).
As he approaches his first playoff game as a starter after the Detroit game, Darnold has reached a career-best in the following categories: passing yards (4,153, fourth in the league), TD passes (35, fifth), and passer rating (106.4, fifth).
He has 18 touchdown passes and only two picks in the last seven games, all victories, as he’s won nine straight. He also has run for 202 yards, 22 first downs and one touchdown.
Darnold benefits greatly from an excellent supporting cast led by QB-whisperer head coach Kevin O’Connell and all-pro receiver Justin Jefferson. Darnold is happy in Minnesota, and he’ll be best served to stay there in 2025 and possibly beyond while the team continues to groom McCarthy (a la Jordan Love behind Rodgers) rather than take more money elsewhere and probably find less success.
TEE HIGGINS, WR, CINCINNATI BENGALS
Tee Higgins played under the $21.8 million franchise tag tender this season after the Bengals did not extend his contract. He was the only 2024 franchised player not to reach a long-term deal with his team.
The Bengals are focused on extending Ja’Marr Chase this coming offseason at $35 million per year (Justin Jefferson’s deal) or more. That likely means Higgins will hit the open market as the top available wide receiver.
Higgins was the Bengals’ second-round pick in 2020. At 25 years old, he’ll hit the market when general managers prefer to sign free agents to lucrative deals, and he offers teams a big target at 6-foot-4, 220 pounds.
He’ll be trying to exceed $30 million per year on his next deal and will likely need play-time incentives as part of a deal to reach that level, as teams will have concerns about his durability. He missed six games this season and five games last season with hamstring injuries.
He’s finishing this season strong with 24 catches for 277 yards and five touchdowns in the last three games (all Bengals wins). He had 11 receptions for 131 yards and a career-best three touchdown catches, including the overtime winner last Sunday against Denver.
Top Landing Spots for Tee Higgins
J.K. DOBBINS, RB, LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
I debated including J.K. Dobbins or Aaron Jones (1,093 rushing yards plus 378 receiving yards on 46 catches with seven total TDs).
I opted for the 26-year-old Dobbins, who is making only $1.6 million this season (plus some incentives he’ll reach), as opposed to the 30-year-old Jones, who is on a $7 million contract that won’t increase much next season as he likely stays in Minnesota.
Dobbins is a great story of perseverance. A former second-round pick by the Baltimore Ravens, he battled ACL and Achilles injuries during his first four seasons (playing in only nine games from 2021-2023).
He has a career-high 842 rushing yards with a 4.8 yard per carry average, nine rushing touchdowns, plus 29 receptions for 141 yards in 12 games. He missed five games with a knee injury but returned last week with 76 rushing yards and one touchdown against the Patriots.
Dobbins is the leading rusher for the playoff-bound Chargers. He may have to sign an incentive-laden deal based on play time with his injury history, but he’s clearly in line for a substantial pay raise in 2025 with the Chargers or elsewhere.
TREY SMITH, OG, KANSAS CITY CHIEFS
Trey Smith fell to the sixth round in the 2021 draft due to past health concerns about blood clots in his lungs. He’s overcome the issue to become a mainstay for the Chiefs. He’s been a starter from Day 1 on four division champion teams and the past two Super Bowl winners who earned the top seed in the upcoming AFC playoffs.
Smith is an excellent pass protector (with no sacks allowed this season) for Patrick Mahomes and a fine run blocker. He is being paid $3.366 million this season as he finishes his rookie deal.
He just helped his market value by being selected to his first Pro Bowl. Smith, 25, should be signed by the Chiefs or a new team in the range of the top guards in the league (led by the Eagles’ Landon Dickerson at $21 million per year).
RONNIE STANLEY, OT, BALTIMORE RAVENS
Ronnie Stanley was the Ravens’ first-round pick in 2016. After being selected to the Pro Bowl and First-team All-Pro in 2019, he signed a five-year, $98.75 million extension to his rookie deal.
His play declined due to ankle and knee injuries during the next several years. In lieu of a possible release, he accepted a pay cut to a one-year, $7.5 million deal with significant incentives for being selected to the Pro Bowl (which he didn’t make in the voting) or All-Pro (not yet released).
For the first time in his career, 30-year-old Stanley has played in every game this season, and his play has improved to the point that he should be a target for the Ravens to re-sign or for other teams to pursue in March as a quality left tackle.
RUSSELL WILSON, QB, PITTSBURGH STEELERS
The 36-year-old former Super Bowl champion and nine-time Pro Bowler in Seattle has been on a wild journey the past few years.
He was traded to Denver for a boatload of high picks, went 11-19 as the starter before being benched due to contract concerns, was released last offseason (with the Broncos owing him $38 million in guaranteed money), and signed a one-year contract with the Steelers for the veteran minimum of $1.21 million.
After battling a calf injury in training camp and the early regular season, he took over for Justin Fields in Week 7 and won six of his first seven starts to help the team reach 10-3.
Russell Wilson and the Steelers clinched a wild-card spot, but they’re on a three-game losing skid to top teams (Eagles, Ravens, and Chiefs). It has cost them the lead in the AFC North to Baltimore who will win the division if they beat the lowly Browns on Sunday.
It's still been a solid turnaround year for Wilson, who produced 100-plus passer ratings in five of his first seven games this season but has not reached that level in the last three weeks.
For the season, he has 15 touchdown passes, only five interceptions, a passer rating of 97.4 (ranking 12th), and 139 rushing yards with two touchdowns on the ground, as he runs a lot less than early in his career when he was a dual-threat quarterback.
Wilson’s showing in the season finale against the Bengals and the playoffs will loom large in the Steelers’ decision on whether to re-sign him at closer to market value for a top 15-caliber quarterback when he’s healthy and on his game. Wilson could hit the open market if the season ends poorly for a team that looked so strong a month ago.
Either way, he’s proven he can still play effectively, and some team will pay him in a year with few great free agent quarterback options and just an OK draft class compared to 2024.
DEFENSE
ZACK BAUN, LB, PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Zack Baun was just selected for his first Pro Bowl after a season in which he vastly surpassed expectations when the Eagles signed him on a one-year, $1.9 million contract.
The 28-year-old Baun was a third-round pick of the New Orleans Saints and made 14 starts in his first four seasons. The Eagles were expected to utilize him as a rotational pass rusher and special teams ace, but defensive coordinator Vic Fangio made him a starting inside linebacker.
Baun has flourished in the role, with 150 tackles (third-most in the league), 11 tackles for loss, and 3.5 sacks.
The Eagles will surely try to re-sign him before free agency to a contract in the $15-18 million per year range (shy of the top-paid inside backer—Roquan Smith of the Ravens—at $20 million per year). The franchise tag will not be in play as there is no differentiation between inside and outside backers, so the projected franchise amount at Baun’s position is $27 million.
Baun’s career year and leap to stardom will pay off big time, and perhaps he will owe Fangio a commission.
CARLTON DAVIS, CB, DETROIT LIONS
Carlton Davis was having one of the best seasons of his seven-year career as the Lions’ top corner when he suffered a fractured jaw in Week 15 against the Bills. According to coach Dan Campbell, it’s possible, but not likely, that Davis will make it back in the postseason, which is another big loss for Detroit’s injury-ravaged defense.
He had two interceptions, 11 passes defensed, and 56 tackles in 13 games this season. He played on a restructured one-year, $14.5 million contract that voids after this season, so he’s eligible for free agency.
The Lions will try to re-sign him after sending a third-round pick to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (with two sixth-rounders returning to Detroit) to acquire Davis as free agency opened last March.
Davis was the Bucs’ second-round pick in 2018 and had 75 career starts with the team. His best season was in 2020 when he had four interceptions, 18 passes defensed, and 68 tackles in the regular season, plus three passes defensed and 22 tackles in the Bucs’ run to the Super Bowl title that season.
The 28-year-old Davis is still in his prime and should have plenty of suitors at a nice bump over this season’s salary if the Lions can’t get him re-signed.
Ideal Landing Spots for Top Free Agent CBs
BYRON MURPHY, CB, MINNESOTA VIKINGS
Byron Murphy is another player who is finishing his best season with great timing as he heads toward possible free agency.
He earned his first Pro Bowl selection with career highs in interceptions (six, tied for third in the league) and passes defensed (14). He also has contributed 74 tackles and five tackles for loss to the Vikings defense that leads the league in interceptions and takeaways.
The 26-year-old Murphy was the Arizona Cardinals’ second-round pick in 2019. He was a three-year starter with five interceptions and 34 passes defensed during his four years with the Cardinals before leaving in 2023 free agency for a two-year, $17.5 million contract with the Vikings.
He’s a key part of defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ scheme that asks the corners to play a mix of man and zone coverage.
That makes him a potential target for any NFL team if the Vikings can’t re-sign him. They have plenty of cap room to do it, and Murphy likely wants to stay where he’s had the most success if he receives a good offer in the $18-20 million per year range.
JOSH SWEAT, DE, PHILADELPHIA EAGLES
Josh Sweat was the Eagles’ fourth-round pick in 2018. He’s having one of his best seasons with eight sacks, 15 QB hits, nine TFLs, and 41 tackles as an edge/OLB for Philadelphia’s top-ranked defense.
He’s been a starter the past four seasons and was selected to the Pro Bowl in 2021. His best season sack-wise was in the Eagles’ Super Bowl season of 2022, when he had 11 sacks (and 23 QB hits).
Sweat, 27, is playing out a one-year, $10 million contract he signed this year following his three-year, $40 million extension in 2021.
He’s in line for a big salary increase with the Eagles or elsewhere after this season, as quality edge rushers are always in demand.
BOBBY WAGNER, LB, WASHINGTON COMMANDERS
It may be hard for Bobby Wagner, as a 34-year-old inside linebacker, to get a big raise from his current one-year, $6.5 million contract, but Commanders coach Dan Quinn knows Wagner’s value as a leader and producer on the playoff-bound team’s defense.
He’s having another stellar season, with 124 tackles to lead the team, two sacks, eight TFLs, three passes defensed, and two fumble recoveries.
He’s been a big part of Washington’s rise from ranking last on defense in 2023 to ninth this season, as the team’s record has taken a big leap from 4-13 to 11-5 going into the regular season finale.
Wagner is a nine-time Pro Bowler from his Hall of Fame-worthy career with Seattle for 11 years (where he was a second-round pick in 2012), then one season with the Rams before coming to Washington this season.
His salary should be at least doubled in 2025, most likely as he stays with the Commanders.
CHASE YOUNG, DE, NEW ORLEANS SAINTS
Chase Young was on my list of free agents about to hit pay dirt last season before the second overall pick by Washington in 2020 signed in New Orleans for one year and $13 million.
With the Saints projected to be far over next year’s salary cap, there’s a decent chance Young will be moving on to his fourth team in 2025 free agency.
He was a Pro Bowl player as a rookie before an ACL injury derailed his next two seasons. He’s only missed one game each of the past two seasons and had 7.5 sacks last season at Washington and San Francisco (moving west in a mid-season trade) before producing 5.5 sacks, 21 QB hits, and eight TFLs this season.
Young is still only 25 years old. His age and athleticism will make him a target for many teams looking for pass-rush help in 2025.
With incentives for playtime and sacks, he should find a team willing to give him a nice pay raise in 2025 now that he’s proven that he can stay on the field.
