NFL Analysis
10/2/24
20 min read
2024 NFL Week 5 QB Power Rankings: C.J. Stroud Enters Top 5
Quarterbacking was back in Week 4, at least at the high level. There were still some passing struggles league-wide, but we had some great games from some of the best players. We also might have a rising star.
A reminder: these rankings consider the skill set of these quarterbacks and are not strictly based on production this season. It’s much more useful to understand and evaluate how these quarterbacks are playing rather than reacting to big yardage totals in a given game.
While a quarterback may have had a great start to the season, that doesn’t automatically make him the league’s best starter. We also use some stats in here, but this is also not a ranking of quarterbacks based on EPA, QBR, or any other single stat.
For the way we’re ranking quarterbacks this year, we’re going to try to ask how much a quarterback plays into his team’s ability to win games — how much easier does the quarterback make things for his offense? Each week, we’re looking at factors such as accuracy, pocket management, and decision-making, among others.
Does the quarterback create the structure for the offense? Does he make the coach's job harder by having to scheme around him? Is he just a product of what surrounds him? These are the types of questions we’re trying to answer, and they will determine the order of this list.
Each week, we’ll be ranking the league’s 32 starting quarterbacks. That means if a quarterback switch is made, it will be reflected in the rankings.
Here are the rankings heading into Week 5. All stats provided by TruMedia unless noted otherwise.
NFL Week 5 QB Rankings
1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs 
Last Week: 1 
Once a week, we get a weird Patrick Mahomes interception. This last one was more consequential because it led to the hit that injured Rashee Rice. That could potentially derail other offenses, but Mahomes has still found a way to navigate some of those mistakes. His ability allows the Chiefs to work things out on the fly.
Mahomes has not played particularly well in the first four weeks of the season, but he’s still the best quarterback in the league. Both things can be true.
2. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills 
Last Week: 2
A week after Josh Allen had one of the best games in his career and was on the verge of jumping to the top of these rankings, he had one of the lowest success rates in his career. However, even that could be looked at as a positive for Allen’s trajectory.
His struggles against Baltimore weren’t because of risky throws or Allen going too far into hero mode and making mistakes. The Ravens were just playing really well and forcing Allen to hold onto the ball. He still made a throw in that game.
Allen still has an MVP path, and he’s at the point where even his “bad” games show his growth as a player.
3. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens 
Last Week: 3
This is what the Baltimore offense was supposed to be. We got our best peak at that on Sunday night against Buffalo. Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry are in the same backfield, making life difficult for opposing defenses, and the threat of the run has opened things up in the passing game.
Jackson has run more in the past two weeks, and he’s taken advantage of the open throws that come off it. He hasn’t thrown into a tight window in the past two games, per Next Gen Stats, and creating that type of spacing is due to how teams have to defend the quarterback.
4. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams 
Last Week: 4
Matthew Stafford is still hanging on as a quarterback, lifting a dire situation around him. The Rams hung around with the Bears while that defense was doing everything it could to make life impossible for the quarterback. Stafford stood in the pocket and took some hits, while rookie Jordan Whittington led the team in targets. It could have been a blowout with another quarterback.
His 48.5 percent success rate was his third-highest in a loss since joining the Rams, and he had the second-highest explosive pass rate of the week. Stafford’s play and the load the Rams have placed on him, with all of the injuries elsewhere, are keeping this team from being a complete disaster.
5. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans 
Last Week: 6 
It’s time to give C.J. Stroud the credit for doing the heavy lifting for Houston’s offense. The Texans have gone back to struggling on early-down runs and have added in some procedural penalties that have routinely given the offense third-and-longs. At 9.3 yards, the Texans are 32nd in average distance to go on third down.
Despite that, Stroud has made some magic happen. He’s still crazy accurate on most plays and has taken his out-of-structure game to another level. He’s creating throwing lanes by moving in the pocket and getting outside of it. He’s creating explosives while keeping the offense on schedule when the other elements around him, like the run game, aren’t working quite as well.
6. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys 
Last Week: 5 
Dak Prescott's drop in the rankings is more about Stroud's ascent. Against the Giants on Thursday night, Prescott had his best game of the season, as the Cowboys found a bit of rhythm on offense. He got the ball out quickly (an average of 2.4 seconds) and worked the short area of the field, with 70 percent of his throws between 1-10 air yards.
Ideally, the Cowboys would find more ways to create explosive pass plays, but if this is how Prescott has to live while that gets figured out, he’ll be accurate and smart enough to make that work.
7. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers 
Last Week: 7
The only way Justin Herbert avoids pressure in this offense is if he gets the ball out insanely fast. If he’s holding onto the ball, there will likely be pressure in his lap. He’s also not getting much help from his receivers with the fifth-highest drop rate for a quarterback this season.
Yet, while hobbled, Herbert still stands in the pocket and plays the position well. There are few quarterbacks who fit the touchdown to Ladd McConkey in the window he hit with a defender in his face. There was also a nice 26-yard throw to Josh Palmer with Herbert on the move.
In the third quarter, the Chiefs sent the blitz, but Herbert threw deep and got some production out of pushing the ball down the field. In the fourth, Kansas City eased off the blitz but still pressured Herbert on all but one of his dropbacks.
8. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals 
Last Week: 8
The past two weeks have been a good sign for Joe Burrow, the Bengals, and those who believed the early-season struggles would be worked out with more playing time.
Burrow looks more comfortable behind center and is taking advantage of the underneath throws to open space. Having Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins on the field helps — he’s averaging 0.59 EPA per play with a 61.5 percent success rate when both are on the field.
His interception in the fourth quarter was a bad miscommunication with Chase, but the offense is running like many expected it to.
9. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks 
Last Week: 10
Seattle has allowed the quickest time to pressure on average, 2.34 seconds per Next Gen Stats. On plays of at least three seconds, Geno Smith has been under pressure at a league-high 73.3 percent of the time.
Despite constantly being put in dire passing situations, Smith has made the most of it. He’s not just moving in the pocket; he’s creating outside of it, which is a new and welcome development.
There’s a reason why the “film watchers” are so high on him. The degree of difficulty that Smith has pulled off is incredibly high, and he’s made the most of it.
10. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals 
Last Week: 9
Without Trey McBride, the Cardinals leaned a lot more on 11 personnel (74.1 percent compared to 49.1 percent during the first three weeks), and the Arizona offense looked unsettled for the first time this season. Despite running 12 personnel on 22 percent of snaps, just one of Kyler Murray’s dropbacks came in that grouping.
Murray completed a high percentage of his passes, but most of them were covered up and limited after the catch. He also had to get the ball out quickly because the offensive line was not holding up. It was a down game, as the Cardinals had to throw to keep up with Washington’s offense.
11. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers 
Last Week: N/A (9 in Week 1)
Jordan Love’s return was shaky to start, as Brian Flores tested the quarterback with heavy blitzing and complicated coverage looks behind it.
Love was looking at plays like this:
But in the second half, the Packers got Love back into a good rhythm. They ran more hurry up, and Love got the ball out quickly while still pushing the ball down the field. He had a 50 percent success rate after halftime.
The amazing thing is that Love only took one sack despite getting hit 10 times. That pocket management will be a plus going forward.
12. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers 
Last Week: 13
This is a different 49ers offense, and Brock Purdy is helping lead the charge. He’s still getting the benefit of schemed open throws, but in a completely different way than we’ve seen for even a Purdy-led offense, never mind the Jimmy Garoppolo version.
Purdy has a 10.6-yard average depth of target, which is second to only Anthony Richardson, and only 27.3 percent of his passing yards have come after the catch.
Part of that is because he’s throwing into tighter windows, some of them by his creation, and getting bailed out by some incredible catches, mostly from Jauan Jennings. Still, Purdy’s aggressiveness allows the 49ers to shift to this style of offense.
13. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets 
Last Week: 11
The optimism and goodwill generated by last week’s Thursday Night Football performance against the Patriots was zapped a bit in the rain against a blitz-heavy Broncos defense.
With Denver constantly sending extra pass rushers, Aaron Rodgers looked uncomfortable while he took 13 hits and five sacks. He said his knee is a bit sore and swollen. His movement in Week 3 was the bright spot, but that disappeared in Week 4 with more pressure. That will be something to monitor going forward.
14. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions 
Last Week: 15
Having a 100 percent completion percentage is great, but that’s gotten too much of the focus from Jared Goff’s Monday night game against Seattle. Goff made a few anticipatory throws but heavily relied on play-action throws to the middle of the field, which is not particularly new for Goff.
What did stand out is that Goff played under a bit of pressure to avoid some sacks — his spin out of a sack to find Jameson Williams in the first quarter was a great pay — however, he took five sacks and had a 37.5 percent pressure-to-sack rate.
The high level of Goff in these controlled environments is great, and it’s good to see after some inconsistent offensive weeks.
>> READ MORE: How Goff Achieved Perfection
15. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles 
Last Week: 12
It was a rough game for Jalen Hurts. He was without DeVonta Smith and A.J. Brown, which would hurt most quarterbacks, but he was also inaccurate and greatly impacted by the Tampa Bay pass rush.
On his first dropback, Hurts was pushed out of the pocket and had Saquon Barkley down the sideline but couldn’t make an accurate throw. It was things like that for much of the game.
The offense right now isn’t quite a Jalen Hurts creation, and it’s not exactly what we’ve seen previously from Kellen Moore. The disconnect is a bit concerning, but there is a chance it looks better at full strength. At the moment, Hurts’s lack of accuracy and poor decision-making have compounded other issues.
16. Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders 
Last Week: 20
Jayden Daniels has patience, aggression, and accuracy. Those traits continue to show up in the passing game as the weeks go by, and the Washington offense gets opened up more.
He’s throwing more on the run and looking to do so. The scrambling is working as is the designed run game, which they didn’t have to rely on as much — but had a great sweep for a touchdown inside the 10-yard line.
Right now, we’ve seen Daniels' best traits immediately translated to the NFL, and he’s been in complete control. We’ll eventually see what his play will look like in more adverse situations, but this is working, and it doesn’t even feel like this is the ceiling.
>> READ MORE: Commanders Can Win NFC East
17. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 
Last Week: 19
After taking too many sacks during the last two weeks, the Buccaneers shifted their philosophy. Against the Eagles, Tampa Bay turned into peak Miami for a game, getting the ball out incredibly quickly and using motion to create space. It worked.
We’ll see if Baker Mayfield continues to throw this quickly (2.05 average seconds to throw in Week 4), which will allow him to be more confident in the pocket with his reads. The quick-hitting offense got Mayfield in a rhythm, and he was an excellent distributor. It hid a weakness and accentuated his strengths as a passer.
18. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars 
Last Week: 14
There are still so many high-level traits with Trevor Lawrence, but he’s continually regressed in accuracy and decision-making this season. While those were plus traits that made the most of a bad situation, and that’s part of what we were grading on, they’re now part of the problem.
We’ll have more on Lawrence and the Jaguars later this week, but this is about as disappointing of a development as could be imagined in this situation.
19. Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings 
Last Week: 18
Sam Darnold is still making the most of his opportunity in a system that creates so many answers. He can throw to Justin Jefferson or take advantage of when the defense overcommits resources to guarding the league’s best receivers, as was the case on two big passing plays against the Packers.
It’s also hard to see the floor falling out for Darnold, considering he’s still making some mistakes and dangerous throws, yet the offense is fine. He has an interception in three of four games.
He also has a fumble on a sack in three of four. Right now, the positives completely outweigh the negatives, which is exactly what the Vikings should hope for in this 4-0 start.
20. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints 
Last Week: 19
We’ve seen a bit of the old Derek Carr during the past two games. Against Atlanta, he was blitzed a fair amount, and his play was up and down. He got the ball out in an average of 2.12 seconds against extra rushers but also took a sack, and his pick-six came when he had to double-clutch a screen against a free rusher.
He’s handled the blitz well overall this season, but it remains one of those areas where defenses can get to him if the pressure is there.
21. Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons 
Last Week: 16
Kirk Cousins pushed the ball down the field, living in the intermediate range where he typically excels. He was generally accurate, but it still feels like things are just a bit slow. When he has the confidence and timing on some of those intermediate shots, the old Cousins is still there.
But often, he fired a little late in contested windows, and he doesn’t have the arm to take defenders out of the play. New Orleans had seven passes defensed in the game. That’s a thin line to walk, but it’s where Cousins is at physically.
22. Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears 
Last Week: 22
There was a lot of good from Caleb Williams against the Rams in Week 4. It was easily his best game so far as a pro. The Rams blitzed and pressured Williams, but he had answers to beat it.
His touchdown to DJ Moore from empty inside the 10-yard line was a laser-accurate throw with him standing in the pocket and allowing the route to develop.
The next step is getting the downfield passing to click within the timing of the offense, but this game was the first glimpse of what we could hope is more development from the top overall pick.
23. Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers 
Last Week: 23
Justin Fields keeps putting together impressive, solid performances. His 51.2 percent success rate was the second-highest of his career, though it didn’t come with many big plays. He’s living on shorter passes with 82.1 percent of his throws within 10 air yards in Week 4. But that’s limiting mistakes and allowing the offense to stay on the field.
The best version of Fields combines this new down-to-down consistency with the explosive plays he created in Chicago. This toned-down version can work, especially with a good defense, but there is a potential for more.
24. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts 
Last Week: 21
Before he left with an injury, Anthony Richardson was putting together what might have been his best start of the season. He had a dart to Michael Pittman off play-action for a 32-yard gain on his first throw. Of course, that was followed by sailing an out over Pittman’s head on the next play. He also had a QB draw that picked up a first down on third-and-6 that helped lead to a touchdown.
But the injuries remain a concern. Richardson left the game with a hip injury, and when he came back, the first play call was a designed quarterback run (another concern), which aggravated the injury and forced him out for the rest of the game.
The injury does not appear to be serious, but missing time is not ideal for a quarterback who needs those reps, especially in a game where it looked like he was playing well.
25. Andy Dalton, Carolina Panthers 
Last Week: 24
Andy Dalton is doing exactly what Carolina hoped he would. He’s playing on time and putting the ball in a place where receivers can make a play.
Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette look like better players because of it. That’s what Dalton’s experience can get. Cincinnati’s defense is going to help when it can, and Dalton is a veteran who can take advantage of those opportunities.
26. Daniel Jones, New York Giants 
Last Week: 25
It’s difficult to create an explosive passing game when a quarterback can’t throw deep, and that’s where the Giants are at the moment with Daniel Jones.
Jones always had just enough arm to make some of his deep throws interesting, though that pivoted to only throwing them when they were wide open in the past few seasons. Now, his arm just doesn’t look like it has any juice. He went 2-of-7 with an interception and could have had more on throws of 20 or more air yards against Dallas.
Jones is a vessel to get Malik Nabers the ball in space, and there’s not much else provided at this point.
27. Jacoby Brissett, New England Patriots 
Last Week: 26
This was a rough game for Jacoby Brissett, and the limits of the New England offense are starting to take their toll. He has yet to average more than 5.5 yards per attempt, and he’s been pressured at least 40 percent of the time in every game this season.
Brissett holds onto the ball, which brings in some pressure, but he has to do so in order for any passing plays to develop.
28. Gardner Minshew, Las Vegas Raiders 
Last Week: 29
Gardner Minshew had a few nice throws against Cleveland — his first should have been a big play to Brock Bowers — but he also made some mistakes and made things more difficult along the way. That’s who Minshew is.
His answer to the blitz was to throw deeper in the intermediate range, which had some success, but when he tried to hit some of those throws without the extra rushers, his accuracy was off.
29. Will Levis, Tennessee Titans 
Last Week: 30
Will Levis didn’t last long on Monday night but gave us a full Levis experience while he was in the game. He threw an interception right to a dropping Emmanuel Ogbah, claiming after the fact that he didn’t see the defender at all (yeah, we know). He was then injured while diving for a first down on a scramble.
Mason Rudolph was not good as Levis’s replacement, but the offense looked more in rhythm and on time.
30. Tyler Huntley, Miami Dolphins 
Last week: N/A
Tyler Huntley is a better quarterback than what he showed on Monday night. He has a good arm and is mobile, two areas that could be used more as he gets more experience in the offense. He was only signed on Sept. 17.
The Miami offense is still heavily based on timing and anticipation, which is tough for a new quarterback with barely two weeks of prep.
31. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns 
Last Week: 31
Deshaun Watson might have had his best game of the year in Week 4, but even that showed how small the margin for error is with his current quality of play. The interception he threw hit Amari Cooper in the chest, and there was a long touchdown called back, but there aren’t enough big plays in the offense to make up for those mistakes.
He took another 10 hits, his third game of the season in double-digits. Levis is the only quarterback with two. Even in a game in which Watson completed 75 percent of his passes, the completions weren’t all that meaningful.
32. Bo Nix, Denver Broncos 
Last Week: 28
Bo Nix had a 25 percent success rate on completed passes in Week 4. The second-lowest success rate on completions for the week was 42.9 percent.
The Broncos live in a condensed passing world, and Nix hasn’t been the pinpoint-accurate quarterback necessary for that to be a functional offense on a weekly basis. The Jets weren’t creating a ton of pressure (19.1 percent), and Nix still struggled to make the passing game work. It was raining, but that was not the full reason for the lack of success.
Nix is tied for second with 19 broken-up passes. Defenses can sit on the short stuff, which increases the rate of those broken-up passes and can throw off the offense's timing when those routes are covered. Nix has yet to open up the deeper passes to make defenses pay for sitting on the shallow routes.
