NFL Analysis
9/29/24
5 min read
Jayden Daniels, Commanders Are Coming For NFC East Crown — Right Now
Despite entering the year with so much uncertainty, the Washington Commanders sit at the top of the NFC East after Week 4.
The Commanders won a dominant 42-14 game against the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday to move to 3-1. That gives them an outright lead in the division, with the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys sitting a game behind them at 2-2.
Along with a three-game win streak, the Commanders have pulled off a pair of statement wins on the road against the Cardinals and Cincinnati Bengals in the last two weeks. A team that had been preseason favorites to land the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft suddenly has playoff aspirations thanks to some big performances from key players and coaches.
Daniels Looks Like A Franchise Savior
Jayden Daniels looks like an early favorite for the Offensive Rookie of the Year.
The No. 2 pick in the 2024 draft was remarkably efficient again on Sunday. He completed 26-of-30 passes for 233 yards, one touchdown, and an interception while rushing eight times for 47 yards and another score. He was credited with an elite 19.3 total expected points added and 0.47 EPA per play.
Heading into the NFL, Daniels was considered a dual-threat quarterback who relied heavily on the deep ball. While he has still hit some deep shots, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner has relied on efficiency and accuracy to pick defenses apart through his first four career games.
Through three games, Daniels leads the NFL by completing 82 percent of his passes. Heading into Sunday Night Football, Josh Allen was the next closest with 75 percent. Daniels now has the highest completion percentage through four games in NFL history, ahead of Tom Brady, who had completed 79.2 percent of his passes in 2007.
Daniels posted an average depth of target of 5.8 yards on Sunday, taking what defenses were giving him. Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury has leaned into Daniels' strengths as a passer, allowing him to use his mobility and quick release to get the ball out to playmakers in space.
Unlike previous games this season, Daniels also showed more confidence going through his reads and targeting the middle of the field against Arizona.
#Commanders’ Jayden Daniels is playing out of his mind. pic.twitter.com/117dOhzRuH
— Charles Robinson (@CharlesRobinson) September 29, 2024
This was an impressive performance from a rookie quarterback, who is continuing to unlock different aspects of his game each week. If he can continue on his trajectory, he'll be the runaway favorite as this year's Offensive Rookie of the Year.
Is The Defense Good Enough?
Prior to Sunday, the Commanders had given up 29.3 points per game through their first three weeks. FTN Fantasy had them as the NFL's worst defensive unit by DVOA.
None of that mattered on Sunday.
The Commanders held Kyler Murray and the Cardinals to just 14 points. That was despite Arizona having just one turnover in the game, with Michael Wilson fumbling late in the fourth quarter near the red zone.
Instead, the Commanders dominated with some crucial stops by the defense. Along with four sacks on Murray, the Commanders forced Arizona to punt four times during the game. On those four drives that stalled out, the Cardinals averaged just 5.75 yards per drive, with three of them being three-and-outs.
The Cardinals had sustained offensive success on a pair of drives that ended in touchdowns, but the Commanders' defense stepped up in clutch moments to get off of the field. One of the biggest plays of the game came on fourth and 1 at the end of the second half.
With the Commanders leading 14-7, Dorance Armstrong came away with a massive sack to keep the Cardinals from getting any points before halftime.
4th and 1 - Armstrong with the MASSIVE sack!!! pic.twitter.com/3IE0HvHxJ3
— Mark Tyler(Hogs Haven) (@Tiller56) September 29, 2024
It was a get-right game for Washington's defense, one it can build on for the rest of the season to help it execute and play with confidence.
An Uphill Battle for The East
With a strong 3-1 start, there's a path for Washington to get into the playoffs, and even win the division.
Although the Commanders still have five more divisional games to play, they have the third-easiest remaining strength of schedule in the NFL. Some of their easiest remaining opponents include the Carolina Panthers, Cleveland Browns, and Tennessee Titans.
However, even with the easy schedule, the Commanders will need to steal some wins against the Eagles and Cowboys. Both teams are only a game behind at 2-2, but have high-powered offenses with plenty of playmakers and established veteran quarterbacks. Even after Washington's strong defensive showing on Sunday, they'll be at a huge disadvantage against Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott.
It's still a difficult path to a divisional title, but for the first time in years, the Commanders have hope. Daniels looks like a long-term answer at quarterback, and first-year coach Dan Quinn has his team believing that they can be a real playoff contender.
