Analysis

10/26/23

8 min read

2023 NFL Week 8: Biggest Matchups, Mismatches

By Sports Info Solutions

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Each week, Sports Info Solutions will generate a matchup comparison for the week’s NFL games based on its proprietary Total Points stat.

Total Points takes nearly everything that happens on the field and scales it in a way that allows you to compare players, units and teams. It will allow you to pinpoint mismatches, perhaps those you weren’t even aware existed.

To learn more about Total Points, read our piece from last season.

Here’s our look at Week 8.

Total Points Per Play ranks are based on 2023 performance to date. Fourth-down decision ranks are based on the head coach’s history over the last two seasons. See a brief description of the ranking methodology in this piece.

Week 8 Matchups

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Buccaneers vs. Bills

Fourth-down decisions: Bucs 31st, Bills eighth

While both these teams have three losses, the SIS Total Points rankings see this game as a mismatch. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 12th in overall efficiency, while the Buffalo Bills are tied for first. Another matchup in Buffalo’s favor is fourth-down decision-making, where the Bucs rank second-worst.

Texans vs. Panthers

Fourth-down decisions: Texans fourth, Panthers seventh

In a battle between the No. 1 overall pick and the No. 2 (and No. 3) pick, the early returns for these two teams have been divergent. C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson Jr. have immediately emerged as quality starters with Pro Bowl potential, while Bryce Young helms the NFL’s only remaining winless team.

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Rams vs. Cowboys

Fourth-down decisions: Rams ninth, Cowboys 11th

The Los Angeles Rams will have a tough matchup up front on both sides of the ball. The Dallas Cowboys rank fourth in blocking, matched up against the Rams 15th-ranked run defense and 26th-ranked pass rush. On the flip side, the Rams rank 13th in blocking, but they are matched up against the Cowboys' third-ranked run defense and seventh-ranked pass rush.

Vikings vs. Packers

Fourth-down decisions: Vikings 17th, Packers second

Both of these teams already trail the Lions by two games in the loss column, and the loser of this game might have to consider becoming a seller at the trade deadline. While Matt LaFleur ranks well in terms of fourth-down decision-making, his decision to keep Joe Berry as his defensive coordinator needs to show better returns than 28th in run defense and 25th in pass coverage.

Saints vs. Colts

Fourth-down decisions: Saints 21st, Colts 29th

Take the under! Neither team’s offense matches up well against the opposing defense, and it might be especially tough sledding for the Indianapolis Colts' 23rd-ranked offense going up against the New Orleans Saints' third-ranked defense. Both are poor fourth-down decision-making teams, but the Colts have been especially lackluster in this regard since the departure of their previous regime. 

Patriots vs. Dolphins

Fourth-down decisions: Patriots 24th, Dolphins 22nd

The matchups are not good for the New England Patriots across the board. Even Miami’s Achilles heel, its last-ranked run defense, is matched up against New England’s second-to-last rushing attack. 

Keep an eye on the status of center Connor Williams, who has missed the Miami Dolphins' past two games because of a groin muscle strain. On pass plays, the Dolphins are 0.36 EPA/Play better with him on the field than with him out. For context, that’s the difference between being the best passing offense in the league and being below average.

Jets vs. Giants

Fourth-down decisions: Jets 16th, Giants 28th

These teams stink. Don’t watch this game. It didn’t work out for the Yankees or Mets either this year, but maybe the Knicks can get it together? Probably not.

Jaguars vs. Steelers

Fourth-down decisions: Jaguars 27th, Steelers 32nd

These teams just keep winning games despite the SIS Total Points system being unmoved by their performance and their fourth-down decision-making ranking from bad to worst. The Pittsburgh Steelers' strong pass rush against the Jacksonville Jaguars' suspect offensive line is one matchup to look out for. T.J. Watt leads all defensive players in Total Points.

Falcons vs. Titans

Fourth-down decisions: Falcons 15th, Titans sixth

Two of the top five rushing and run defense teams will battle in a game full of strength-on-strength matchups (and some weakness-on-weakness ones, too). Mike Vrabel has a strong decision-making record, while Arthur Smith has been middle of the road.

Eagles vs. Commanders

Fourth-down decisions: Eagles first, Commanders 18th

The Philadelphia Eagles are tremendous up front on both sides of the ball, while the Washington Commanders are on a record-setting pace for sacks allowed. The Eagles No. 4 run defense and No. 3 pass rush are the matchup to watch against the Commanders No. 26 offensive line.

Browns vs. Seahawks

Fourth-down decisions: Browns 14th, Seahawks 23rd

The Seattle Seahawks are quietly keeping pace with the 49ers in the NFC West. They rank fifth offensively and ninth defensively in Total Points, showing good balance. The Cleveland Browns are a different story, ranking 31st offensively and second defensively. Myles Garrett ranks second in pass rush and 1st in run defense Total Points among defensive ends.

Ravens vs. Cardinals

Fourth-down decisions: Ravens 25th, Cardinals third

The tank-ish Arizona Cardinals will go against a Baltimore Ravens team that appears to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender. Their hardest matchup is ranking 26th in passing and last in receiving, going up against the eighth-ranked pass rush and fourth-ranked coverage group. Maybe their decision-making advantage can help them in this one, but they’ll need to keep it close for that to matter.

Chiefs vs. Broncos

Fourth-down decisions: Chiefs 26th, Broncos 13th

While the Kansas City Chiefs defense has been the story for them so far this year, Patrick Mahomes will face off against the worst team in the NFL in pass coverage efficiency. This could get ugly.

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Bengals vs. 49ers

Fourth-down decisions: Bengals 19th, 49ers fifth

The San Francisco 49ers have dropped a couple of games, but the SIS rankings system is undeterred by their setbacks. They are still tied for the league lead in overall Total Points per play, and they go against an underachieving Cincinnati Bengals team that ranks 26th.

Bears vs. Chargers

Fourth-down decisions: Bears 12th, Chargers 20th

Sunday Night Football features a potential “win or get fired” game for Brandon Staley against the lowly Chicago Bears. The Los Angeles Chargers defensive-minded coach has the 28th-ranked defensive unit in the NFL. If he can’t figure out how to win with Justin Herbert against Tyson Bagent, the calls for a change will only get louder.

Raiders vs. Lions

Fourth-down decisions: Raiders 30th, Lions 10th

On Monday Night, Josh McDaniels is unlikely to be fired, but he’s certainly in the conversation. He’s been the third-worst fourth-down decision-maker in the NFL, and he’s got the fourth-worst team in overall efficiency.

This article was authored by Matt Manocherian. 

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Sports Info Solutions

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