Analysis
10/13/23
12 min read
2023 NFL Week 6 Player Prop Bets: Smash This Breece Hall Parlay
Each week, more than half a dozen analysts from The 33rd Team will discuss prop betting strategy behind the scenes. This article will encompass all the player prop bets the team believes are strong plays for that week.
The fastest way to access all our weekly player prop bets is in our FREE Discord via the prop-bets channel.
We’ll link the picks article from Racz (Underdog), too. Also, look for betting picks videos from Tanner Kern and an article from Samantha Previte that may have another betting pick.
Top Week 6 Player Props
Justin Fields OVER 186.5 Passing Yards
Best Odds: -114 on FanDuel
The OVER is up to 189.5 at -130 on DraftKings, for reference. There’s pretty nice value on FanDuel. Justin Fields is over this number in four of five games, with the one miss being the Chiefs game where they were down 41-0 by halftime. Every other game, Fields has at least 29 attempts and 211 passing yards.
The Vikings are allowing 7.3 yards per pass attempt but just 3.6 yards per carry (that's including the nuclear D'Andre Swift game from Week 2). Aside from that Eagles game (shoutout Eagles offensive line), the Vikings have clamped down on rushing attacks, and are generally a pass funnel defense.
The Bears are down their top RB Khalil Herbert, and I expect 30+ pass attempts from Fields and company.
I also took Fields 200+ passing yards at +130 on FanDuel in the alt pass yards section of "Passing Props". I also like Fields 2+ pass TDs (+195 on DraftKings, +210 on Bet365... don't take that on FanDuel, it's only +158). I also took Fields 3+ pass TDs at +1025 (!!) on Bet365. Fields has tossed four touchdowns in back-to-back games, and the offensive line has held up nicely in pass protection.
Bet by: Larky
Calvin Ridley OVER 58.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -114 on FanDuel
This is -115 on DraftKings at 59.5 Yards. Also, I took Calvin Ridley 75+ Yards at +175, and Ridley 100+ Yards at +450. Alt lines are only up on Bet365 right now, but they should hit DraftKings and FanDuel sometime later today.
Ridley faced the Colts in Week 1 and caught eight of 11 targets for 101 yards. Weeks 2-4 were underwhelming, though he did have eight targets in Week 2 and seven targets in Week 3. In Week 5, he caught seven of eight targets for 122 yards.
Ridley is facing the Colts again, and the embedded tweet from Jordan Vanek shows how Ridley is tee'd up for a big game in Week 6. Ultimately, Ridley has reached 100 yards in two of five games (40%), and +175 for 75+ yards implies we need the bet to hit around 36% of the time to pay off, long-term. +450 just needs 18%.
Bet by: Larky
Jakobi Meyers 75+ Receiving Yards
Best Odds: +225 on Bet365
+225 implies this bet needs to hit 31 percent of the time for us to make money off plays like this long-term. I think this hits ~45 percent of the time, so there's some value here from my perspective.
If you don't have Bet365 in your state, use DraftKings to take 80+ yards as an alt line at +230.
Jakobi Meyers has 10+ targets and 75+ yards in three of four games this year. The only game he didn't reach 75 yards was when Aidan O'Connell was playing QB. Bill Belichick likely goes out of his way to shut down Davante Adams, since he'll usually key in on one offensive player in particular. Meyers gets a revenge game against his former team.
Also, Meyers is 10th in my expected fantasy points model based on usage. His role has been outstanding, with Adams/Meyers combining for 20 targets per game, while no other Raiders WR/TE is even averaging two targets per game this season.
Bet by: Larky
PARLAY: Breece Hall OVER 13.5 Rush Attempts + Breece Hall UNDER 55.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds: +525 on DraftKings
Breece Hall took over the backfield last week with 22 carries for 177 yards against Denver. I expect him to get a solid amount of work against the Eagles in Week 6.
However, the Eagles have an elite run defense. Running back rooms are averaging just 49 rushing yards per game vs. the Eagles, and no running back has more than 53 rushing yards against Philadelphia all season.
The Jets are also down starting tackle Alijah Vera-Tucker, who suffered a season-ending injury last week. Also, while the game script should go against the Jets, Zach Wilson has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in four of five games this season. Completely phasing out Breece Hall if the team goes down early doesn't make too much sense.
This parlay is essentially betting on Breece Hall to have inefficient volume against one of the league's top run defenses. $50 on this wins $312.50 if it hits. I think this hits 35-40% of the time, but +525 implies we only need this type of bet to hit 16% of the time long-term to churn a profit.
Bet by: Larky
Jerome Ford OVER 13.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
Jerome Ford has come alive in the receiving game since Nick Chubb went down with a season-ending knee injury. In Week 2, Ford ran 19 routes and had three receptions for 25 yards - Chubb ran just four routes in that game. Week 3, Ford ran 21 routes, catching two passes for 33 yards. Kareem Hunt only ran five routes in that game. Week 4, Ford ran 27 routes, catching five passes for 19 yards - Hunt ran just seven routes in that game.
Ford is the clear receiving back on the Browns, and Deshaun Watson is still not healthy yet, so PJ Walker will draw the start. I have a hard time believing the Browns feed him completely to the wolves, so I’d expect a healthy dose of checkdowns to running backs.
On the season, running backs have averaged a 20 percent target share (eight targets per game) against the 49ers, catching six passes for 34 yards per game. A running back has hit this OVER in four of five games against the 49ers this year.
Bet by: Larky
Irv Smith UNDER 22.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -110 on DraftKings
Irv Smith is one of the worst starting tight ends in the NFL when it comes to pass-catching. He’s played three games this year and has yet to reach more than 17 yards in any game.
Week 1, he was targeted five times, but those five targets totaled just two air yards. He caught three of them for 17 yards. In Week 2, Smith was targeted four times, much further downfield. He failed to do much with those 40 air yards, catching two for 10 yards. Weeks 3-4 he missed due to injury. In Week 5, he ran 32 routes and was not targeted.
On the season, he has now run 90 routes across three games, which has amounted to five catches for 27 total yards. Starting tight ends are 2-2 on this line against the Seahawks, with Tyler Higbee and Sam Laporta going over this number, while Hayden Hurst and Darren Waller have been under this number.
Tee Higgins is back at practice this week, and it’s tough to see how Smith fits into this offense. I expect him to be 4-0 to this UNDER after his Week 6 game against the Seahawks.
Bet by: Larky
Cooper Kupp OVER 86.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -105 on DraftKings
Cooper Kupp has played 26 games with Matthew Stafford, and has gone over this number in 22 of 26 (85 percent). Last week in his return from injury, Kupp had 12 targets and caught eight for 118 yards. The Arizona Cardinals have allowed a wide receiver to go over this number in four of five games on the season, and they have one of the weaker overall secondaries in the NFL.
Bet by: Larky
Josh Allen Longest Completion OVER 37.5
Best Odds: -110 on DraftKings
Josh Allen has hit this line in three of five and has had five completions of 38-plus this season.
The New York Giants are 4-1 on allowing this line, and have also allowed five completions of 38-plus this season, which is the third most.
Teams are passing against the Giants at a bottom-five rate; that’s my biggest concern here. Still – it means teams are passing for 38 or more yards at the third highest rate – on about 3.5 percent of attempts. Using a binomial distribution, that means all else equal, at random, Allen needs 21 attempts for this line to be fair value. He’s averaging 35 attempts per game.
From a football perspective, the Giants have run man coverage at the fourth-highest rate this year. Three of Allen’s five completions of 38+ came against man defense, despite seeing man coverage on less than 30 percent of his drop backs. Those receptions averaged 15 air yards, but 32 YAC per reception. The Giants are allowing the third most YAC.
Bet by: Wolby
Kirk Cousins OVER 33.5 Pass Attempts
Best Odds: –115 on DraftKings
Kirk Cousins has had over 40 attempts in four of five games.
In the game where he had fewer, the Minnesota Vikings had just 44 plays on 21 minutes time of possession, a clear outlier. They’re averaging 61 plays per game this season and had 68 plays last week.
Against the Chicago Bears defense, opponents are averaging 63 plays per game and 35.6 pass attempts – those are both slightly above-average numbers.
While only two of five starting quarterbacks topped this number against the Bears, Patrick Mahomes was benched at on the hook 33 attempts and the team finished with 38 total pass attempts. In three of five weeks, teams had enough passing volume against this defense for Cousins to top this line.
The only concern is that Justin Jefferson is not playing. But still, in the limited 27-play sample size we have this season, the Vikings passed the ball on 74 percent of plays when Jefferson was off the field and 70 percent when he’s on. Still, if his absence concerns you, maybe stay away, but I think this line is a bit reactionary when the team traded for TE T.J. Hockenson, gave him a huge contract and used a first-round pick on rookie WR Jordan Addison. Their offensive identity is passing the ball.
Bet by: Wolby
Josh Jacobs OVER 21.5 Receiving Yards
Best Odds: -115 on DraftKings
Josh Jacobs is over this line in three of five.
While only two running backs have topped this number against the New England Patriots, every team has had more than 21.5 receiving yards when targeting their RBs against New England. I know that seems cherry picked, but the Patriots have faced a few running back committees.
Jacobs is legitimately one of two bell cows left in the NFL. He owns 74 percent of the Raiders running back targets, a number that ranks fifth among running backs, and he has run a route on 53 percent of Las Vegas drop backs, a number that ranks seventh among starting running backs in the NFL.
Believe it or not, Jacobs leads all RBs in targets and receiving yards. New England is allowing the tenth most yards and seventh-most receptions vs running backs.
Bet by: Wolby
Josh Downs 50+ Receiving Yards
Best Odds: +110 on DraftKings
Josh Downs has a 25 percent target share when playing with Gardner Minshew this season. Downs has at least six receptions and 57 yards in two of his past three games. The Jaguars are giving up the 10th most receiving yards to receivers this season (180 per game).
Bet by: Larky
Dameon Pierce OVER 48.5 Rushing Yards
Best Odds: -110 on Bet365
Dameon Pierce has at least 20 carries in back to back games, and the Houston Texans will have both their starting offensive tackles back and healthy for this contest (Tytus Howard and Laremy Tunsil). The New Orleans Saints have allowed only 3.5 yards per carry (YPC) to running backs this year, and if we use that YPC average, Pierce needs only 14 carries to hit his over. Betting markets have the Saints as only 1.5 point favorites, so it's likely a close game, which favors Pierce continuing to get touches.
Bet by: Larky
Zay Flowers OVER 55.5 receiving yards
Best Odds: -110 on Bet 365
Zay Flowers is on his way to solidifying himself as the WR1 in Baltimore. He has now had double-digit targets in three of five weeks, and last week was the first week he’s run a route on every one of Lamar Jackson's dropbacks.
He gets a Tennessee defense that has been funneling yards to the passing game. 72 percent of yards gained against Tennessee have been pass yards, which is the eighth most in the NFL.
He's averaging 63.4 receiving yards per game and has gone over this line in four of five games so far. I really don't understand why this line is so low. Play this confidently to 59.5 receiving yards.
Bet By: Brian O’Connell
James Bradberry (PHI) UNDER 3.5 tackles + assists
Best odds: -105 on Draftkings
James Bradberry has gone under this total in two of four games but in one of the games that he went over, he played primarily in the slot which is much better for tackle opportunities than playing outside cornerback. Last year, he was under this number in 14 out of 17 games. The New York Jets have allowed the fourth least number of tackles to opposing cornerbacks this year at 10.2 per game.
Darius Slay is out for this game so the Philadelphia Eagles will be starting Josh Jobe opposite of Bradberry and Mario Goodrich in the slot. Goodrich and Jobe figure to be heavily targeted. My model has this going under around 70 percent of the time.
Bet by: Patrick H.
Grant Delpit OVER 5.5 tackles + assists
Best odds: -130 at Bet365, -135 at MGM
Grant Delpit has gone over in two of four games to start the season. San Francisco is tied for the ninth most tackles allowed to safeties at 15 per game. With the Cleveland Browns starting P.J. Walker and this spread being San Francisco -9.5, I expect the Browns' defense to be on the field quite often today.
Delpit ranks sixth among all defensive backs with a 19 percent tackle rate on rushing plays while the San Francisco 49ers rank second in the NFL in rush attempts per game at 34.6. My model has this going over around 70 percent of the time.
Bet by: Patrick H.
Follow Our Team of Prop Bettors
Josh Larky: @JLarkyTweets
Ryan Reynolds: @RyanReynoldsNFL
Ben Wolby: @BenWolby
Daniel Racz: @Danny___Dimes
William S.: @Dr_Profit_
Patrick H.: @TackleBoxProps
Brian O’Connell: @BpoFSU
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