2023 Fantasy Football: Outlook for NFL's Top Tight Ends
Fantasy 6/22/23
A player’s role size and value drive their fantasy football outlook, but talent primarily determines their role in an offense.
Former NFL tight end Clay Harbor recently discussed his top seven tight ends from a talent perspective. We’re going to break down those players’ value in fantasy football.
Top TE Fantasy Outlook
Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs
Travis Kelce will turn 34 this December, but until he shows signs of decline, he’s the standalone top tight end in fantasy. Kelce’s receiving yards prop in the betting markets is at least 200 yards higher than any other tight end, so bettors are showing minimal fear with Kelce after a career-high 110 receptions in 2022.
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers
If you’re discussing the best all-around tight ends ever to play the game, George Kittle has to be part of that discussion. Kittle is coming off a career year in the touchdowns department, with 11 across 15 games last season.
Regarding fantasy, quarterback uncertainty and target competition are major obstacles for Kittle. That’s why we have Kittle ranked as our TE4, as he’s more of a spike game option than a model of consistency in fantasy due to his situation.
Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles
Like Kittle, Dallas Goedert has significant target competition with wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Quarterback stability isn’t a problem in Philadelphia, but being the third option in the Eagles' offense limits Goedert’s week-to-week volume.
Goedert had a better floor last year than Kittle, but Kittle has more spike-game potential. Since taking over as the Eagles’ primary tight end in 2021, Goedert has averaged 56.7 receiving yards per game, a 964-yard pace over 17 games. We have Goedert in the TE5-TE6 range in fantasy.
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens
Mark Andrews’ 2022 campaign was a little disappointing, but he put up a monster 107 receptions for 1,361 yards receiving and nine touchdowns in 2021. However, Andrews’ target share during the past two seasons is 26.9 percent, according to The Edge. That’s more than three percentage points higher than any other tight end.
New Baltimore Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken will dial up the passing game volume in Baltimore this season. The Ravens’ wide receiver room is the most complete it’s ever been in the Lamar Jackson era. However, Andrews still looks like the top option in Baltimore’s passing game. We have Andrews as our TE2.
T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings
T.J. Hockenson saw massive volume when he joined the Minnesota Vikings last season, which is why he was our TE2 before the draft. The indirect swap of aging wide receiver Adam Thielen for No. 23 overall pick Jordan Addison brings more target competition for Hockenson.
Last season, Hockenson averaged more targets per game with Minnesota than Kelce did in Kansas City, excluding the Vikings’ Week 18 contest, where Hockenson barely played. We’re still above market on Hockenson, but that enhanced target competition is why we give Andrews a slight edge in fantasy.
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
Kyle Pitts is a unique talent at the tight end position, but quarterback volatility and his role within the Atlanta Falcons offense led to a disappointing fantasy campaign last season. Pitts is the ultimate risk versus reward or talent versus role decision in fantasy.
Any uptick in passing volume will help Pitts smash in fantasy football, as only Andrews and Kelce have a higher target share during the past two seasons. We are interested in betting on Pitts’ talent, which is why he’s our TE5, but his floor is scarier than any of the previous players on this list.
Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars
Evan Engram has always been a dynamic athlete at the tight end position, and he resurrected his career in Trevor Lawrence’s offense last season. The return of Calvin Ridley could have a significant impact on the volume of every pass catcher in Jacksonville this season.
Still, Engram has familiarity with Lawrence after last year, and coach Doug Pederson has always focused on utilizing tight ends in the passing game.
Engram’s 73 receptions and 766 receiving yards in 2022 represented career highs, and he’s still in his prime, turning 29 in September. Engram has nice spike game potential, but we have him in the TE8 to TE9 range, firmly behind Darren Waller.
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