Analysis
11/2/22
5 min read
Week 9 Thursday Night Underdog Player Picks: Eagles vs. Texans
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Last Sunday's picks started well. We hit our pick-2 of the week on Denver Broncos vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, and all of our 5/5 confidence picks hit. We ended the day 4-3, moving our seasonal record to 49-42-2. This Thursday night football game has some friendly so let's get to filling out our entry slip!
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Miles Sanders HIGHER than 77.5 Rush Yards
After Titans RB Derrick Henry's performance last week against the Houston Texans' defense, you probably expected to see this pick at the end with a 5/5 confidence rating. I like the play, but I also have some worries. There is no doubt this is a fantastic matchup for Eagles RB Miles Sanders.
The Texans give up the most rush yards to running backs, with 159.3 rush yards per game. The next closest team is the Los Angeles Chargers, with 128. To get really nerdy, there is a full standard deviation between the Chargers and the Texans. That is insane.
I worry about this play because the line is currently -14, and there is a serious chance of a blowout. Last week, the Eagles were big favorites and were up 28-13 through three quarters. Because of the large lead, Sanders did not have a rushing attempt in the fourth quarter. He finished with only nine rush attempts and 77 yards rushing. He was incredibly efficient and might need that type of efficiency again if the Philadelphia Eagles play like they're expected to. I still like this play; the Eagles should lean heavily on the run, so I give it a 4/5 for confidence and would play it up to 80.5 rush yards, but not much higher.
Davis Mills LOWER than 223.5 Pass Yards
When I first wrote up this play, it was posted at 231.5, and I rushed to go lower on it. Unfortunately, in the middle of writing this, the Pick 'Em line was pulled and came back on the board at 223.5. It's still a value – several sportsbooks already have it in the 210s – so I fully expect the line to keep dropping.
The Eagles give up the fewest passing yards per game in the league. Only one QB, Kyler Murray in Week 5, has had more passing yards than this line this season. The Eagles have been pummeling teams in the first half. Teams average only 69.4 passing yards in the first half against the Eagles. The incredible first-half defense combined with the potent Eagles offense has led most teams to play aggressively in the second half. As a bonus, if the Eagles are up at least two scores and there is a Mills second-half passing line posted, I would strongly recommend taking Mills over up to 145 passing yards.
Even facing a negative game script and with a big second half, I don't see Mills getting over this line. In losses, he is averaging 224.4 passing yards per game, including 302 against the horrific Las Vegas Raiders secondary. This line is still high, but the possibility of a big second half after the game is out of hand scares me, so I give it a 4/5 for confidence and would play it down to 210.5.
Dallas Goedert HIGHER than 49.5 Receiving Yards
The Eagles' passing offense has been entirely different based on the type of coverage they have seen. Against man coverage, Goedert has a 12.1% target share and 1.2 yards receiving per route run. Against zone coverage, Goedert has a 24.1% target share and 2.2 yards receiving per route run. The Texans have played zone coverage more than 70% of the time this season. That isn't a top 10 or higher rate — it ranks 14th — but it still is a significant amount and should give Goedert plenty of opportunities to have a big night.
The matchup against the Texans doesn't look great on paper, but digging a little deeper gives me more confidence for a big night for Goedert. Houston gives up the 10th-fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends. However, Goedert is the best receiving tight end they've played this season.
Other heavily-targeted tight ends have had success against the Texans' defense. Chargers TE Gerald Everett had 61 receiving yards in Week 4, and Jaguars TE Evan Engram had 69 receiving yards in Week 5. I am tempted to make this play the second 6/5 confidence play we've had. But 49.5 is just a little too high for me to be that confident. It is an extremely solid 5/5 play, and I would play it up to 59.5 receiving yards.
WATCH MORE: A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith in DFS?
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