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Titans vs. Chiefs DFS Sunday Night Showdown

For the first time in Patrick Mahomes' career, he will not be playing a divisional opponent coming off his bye week. Mahomes is undefeated off the bye week but hasn’t always had the best games. Last season, the Titans held Mahomes to his lowest point total in his career. So the motivation factor will be there for the Chiefs.

The Titans are looking to repeat last year's performance and continue building their lead in NFC South. RB Derrick Henry is the Titans' workhorse and hasn't shown any signs of slowing down. The Titans will play slowly and attempt to keep this game close till the fourth quarter. 

Vegas Line: Chiefs -11

Over Under: 46.5

Notable Injuries:


Out: FB Tory Carter, WR Treylon Burks, LT Taylor Lewan, OG Jamarcus Jones, Edge Harold Landry, S Amani Hooker. Questionable: DL Jefferey Simmons, Edge Bud Dupree, QB Ryan Tannehill


Out: Edge Frank Clark.

Data to Know Provided by TruMedia

Titans Offense vs. Chiefs Defense

  • Titans QB Malik Willis filled in for Ryan Tannehill last week against the Texans. Tannehill is questionable for Sunday's game.
  • Willis had an awful start to his NFL career and makes the Titans’ passing attack worse, so hopefully Tannehill starts.
  • Tannehill averages 7.5 yards per attempt, 7.6 air yards per attempt and a 4.1% pass touchdown rate.
  • The Chiefs’ defense gives up 7.2 yards per attempt, 6.6 air yards per attempt and a 6.1% pass touchdown rate.
  • The Chiefs have played man coverage at a 31.7% rate, which is much higher than the league average.
  • They blitz at a 28.1% rate, which ranks above the league average.
  • Against man coverage, Tannehill ranks toward the bottom of the NFL's quarterbacks.
  • Against the blitz, Tannehill is a much better quarterback, averaging 7.8 yards per attempt, 9.9 air yards per attempt and a 5.6% touchdown rate.
  • The Chiefs get pressure at a 32.3% rate.
  • Tannehill has been sacked 8.6% of the time, which is one of the highest rates in the NFL.
  • Titans WR Robert Woods gets targeted on 22.1% of his routes run and has more than a 20% target share against both man coverage and zone coverage.
  • Titans WRs Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Cody Hollister are the only other wide receivers running routes.
  • You have Austin Hooper, Chigoziem Okonkwo and Geoff Swaim in the tight-end room.
  • All three players will have chances in the red zone with Hooper leading the way in routes run.
  • Henry is the Titans' main source of offense, and they will also throw him the ball in this matchup.
  • Teams target the running back against the Chiefs' defense on 23.1% of their total targets, which ranks second in the NFL.
  • Henry averages 4.5 yards per carry, and the Chiefs give up 4.4 yards per carry this year.
  • RB Dontrell Hilliard will also have plenty of involvement, averaging more than seven yards per carry.
  • Hilliard and Henry rank second on this team in targets. In addition, Hilliard is leading them in receiving touchdowns.

Chiefs Offense vs. Titans Defense

  • Mahomes averages 8.2 yards per attempt, 7.1 air yards per attempt and a 7.6% pass touchdown rate.
  • Noticing his air yards are lower than his yards per attempt tells you he is comfortable allowing plays to happen after the catch.
  • Last season, the Titans played cover two, cover-two man, cover three and cover four for the majority of the plays against the Chiefs.
  • According to The EDGE, there are three players Mahomes looks to against those coverages, Travis Kelce, Juju Smith-Schuster and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.
  • Smith-Schuster holds the highest catch rate, Valdes-Scantling has the highest yards per reception and Kelce is in the middle of both.
  • Against zone coverage, those three players all average more than two yards per route run.
  • The addition of Kadarius Toney makes for a new wrinkle in this offense. Toney has practiced all week and should play. 
  • WRs Mecole Hardman and Skyy Moore are the two players that will likely have their roles reduced thanks to Toney.
  • The Titans have given up big plays on deep routes, which Valdes-Scantling has shown prowess in this season.
  • The Titans have not blitzed on more than 20% of dropbacks since Week 2 against Buffalo's Josh Allen.
  • When Teams have not blitzed Mahomes, he has averaged 9.2 yards per attempt with an average of 6.9 air yards per attempt.
  • The RB for Kansas City is the most challenging one to figure out.
  • In their last game, Isiah Pacheco started, Clyde Edwards-Helaire got the only rushing touchdown and Jerick McKinnon was the only one to catch a pass.
  • Pacheco leads this team in carries because he is the best in a gap running scheme, and that has been a struggle for the Titans' defense.
  • McKinnon will likely run the most routes, but Hardman and Toney will be the most utilized players on screen passes. 

Overall Thoughts

The Titans have one path to victory: getting their offensive line to dominate this Chiefs’ defensive line. They have to set up play-action and get Tannehill or Willis open passing lanes for these wide receivers. The Chiefs have been a much better defense this season, so if the Titans want to have big plays, it will have to come on third and short. The Chiefs sell out on the run game in those situations, which will give the Titans an opportunity to take a deep shot.

Mahomes and the Chiefs must focus on using the short passing game to sustain long drives and then capitalize on shot plays with deep crossing routes better than they did last season. Toney will help with this philosophy tremendously since he's so good after the catch. Kelce will have plenty of attention from the Titans, but as long as one of the other wide receivers can step up, Kelce will make plenty of plays down the field. If the Chiefs are patient, they will win this game by multiple scores. 

Multiplier Pool

  • QB Patrick Mahomes
  • TE Travis Kelce
  • WR Juju Smith-Schuster
  • WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling


  • RB Derrick Henry
  • QB Ryan Tannehill / QB Malik Willis
  • WR Kadarius Toney
  • DST Chiefs
  • WR Nick Westbrook-Ikinhe
  • K Harrison Butker
  • K Randy Bullock
  • RB Dontrell Hilliard
  • TE Geoff Swaim
  • RB Jerrick McKinnon
  • RB Isiah Pacheco 
  • TE Chigoziem Okonkwo
  • WR Cody Hollister

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