Betting
10/26/22
4 min read
Thursday Night Week 8: Player Props for Ravens vs. Buccaneers
Last Sunday was a big day for us. We finished 5-2, and our only losses were because of a disappointing day by Matt Ryan, one that got him benched and P.J. Walker having the game of his life. That brings our total for the season to 43-38-2. While we don't have a 6/5 confidence play like we did last Thursday that is guaranteed to hit, I have found several strong lines for this Thursday night matchup between the Ravens and the Bucs that I will be playing.
Mike Evans UNDER 67.5 Receiving Yards
This is my bold take for the Thursday night game. After giving up over 300 passing yards per game over the first three weeks, the Ravens defense has looked much improved. In Weeks 1-3, they gave up a league-high 14 pass plays of 20 or more yards. Since then, they've only given up only five pass plays of 20 or more yards, which is tied for the third-best in the NFL. Since they have solidified their defense on deeper passes, I am predicting Evans won't see much success against this Ravens defense. He might see plenty of usage on shorter routes, but without much of a threat of a deep pass completion, I think he is likely to go under his receiving yards total. Also, Julio Jones could possibly come back from injury this week, which would slightly eat into Evan's target share. Because Evans still has the chance to reel off a long catch at any time, I give this play confidence of 3/5 and would not play it any lower.
Gus Edwards OVER 48.5 Rush Yards
Over the last four weeks, the Tampa Bay defense has been terrible against the run, allowing over 100 yards rushing three out of the last four weeks. They started out the season as an above-average rushing defense, but they have been exposed by several bad offenses recently. The Carolina Panthers, who rank last in offensive EPA per play according to TruMedia, ran for 173 rushing yards against them last week. They have also been giving up a lot of big running plays recently. In the last 4fourweeks, they have given up the 3rd most rushes of 20 yards or more.
Betting an over on any Raven's running back is scary because they are guaranteed to split backfield touches, but last week's usage for Gus Edward should be encouraging. In his first week back from his ACL injury, he handled 16 rush attempts, which is the most a running back for the Ravens have had in a single game this season. I doubt Gus Edwards will get 16 carries again, which was the 2nd most rush attempts a Ravens running back has had in a single game over the lasttwo2 seasons, but he should get a majority of the carries out of this backfield again this week. As mentioned before, this Tampa defense has been getting exposed on the ground. Because of the matchup with a bad rush defense that has been giving up big plays, I am all in on Gus Edwards having a big day on the ground, and he only needs to break one rush of 20 or more yards to go over this prop. I give this play a confidence rating of 4/5 and would play it up to 50.5 but not any higher.
Rachaad White OVER 12.5 Receiving Yards
Rachaad White's role in the Buccaneers offense has grown since the first half of the season. During the first three weeks of the season, White ran 18 routes and had a 4.0% target share with four targets. In the last four weeks, he has run 68 routes for an 8% target share and 15 targets. While his production has been disappointing the last two weeks, only getting a total of 19 receiving yards on four receptions, it is encouraging that he is seeing more and more work as he gets farther into his rookie season. In three of the last four weeks, he has had at least four targets. If he continues to see that type of usage, he should easily be able to go over 12.5 receiving yards. I give this play a confidence rating of 4/5 and would play it to 18.5 rec yards.
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