Three Chiefs, Eagles’ Players to Target in Super Bowl LVII DFS Lineups
Three Unlisted Injuries That Could Shape Super Bowl LVII
The final injury reports for Super Bowl LVII are out, and between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles, just one player is listed: Eagles punt returner Britain Covey as questionable with a hamstring injury. So that means everyone else is healthy, right? Nothing to see here. Wrong.
Obviously, it’s Super Bowl week, so nobody who practiced is going to miss the game. But I think we should talk a little bit more about what injuries will impact the game, even if they aren’t on the final reports and everyone is dressed and on the field Sunday night.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes: Ankle
I expect Patrick Mahomes to have gained a step since the AFC Championship Game. He’s three weeks out from suffering a high ankle sprain, but I kind of think of it as two weeks because he played on it a little bit early and clearly aggravated it during the second half of the game against the Cincinnati Bengals. But I definitely believe he should be running more confidently on Sunday. His downfield throws should be even more accurate, with some power behind them.
Mahomes has a significant injury, but I think what we saw against Cincinnati was mental toughness. He played through the injury with an incredible ability to throw with his body contorted off of no feet. That’s something really only Mahomes can do, and we were lucky to watch that. I think we’ll get quite a show from him this weekend.
One concern with Mahomes and his ankle is the long breaks in the Super Bowl. For halftime, we’re talking about a half hour, maybe even closer to 35 minutes, plus you have that extended anthem at the beginning of the game. You definitely want to keep him up and moving around during those breaks to keep his ankle warm. He didn’t take a pain injection or an anti-inflammatory before the AFC Championship. The question is: Is he taking any kind of anti-inflammatory orally that could help him? It won’t numb all his pain, but it could help, especially with the longer halftime.
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts: Shoulder
I’m actually more worried about Jalen Hurts than I am Mahomes. His injury should have healed at this point, but I think what we saw from him in the NFC Championship against the San Francisco 49ers is that he isn’t quite comfortable. And I don’t know if that’s all physical.
The sternoclavicular joint is a major joint for a throwing athlete. Pain there certainly can affect your ability to throw. A pregame injection might be something he’s looking at to help him in the first half of the game. I’m not sure if it will help by the second half, though, especially with that longer halftime. The main — and most important — things I’m really looking for from him are whether he wil scramble, and whether can he throw accurately downfield.
Eagles CB Avonte Maddox: Turf Toe
Avonte Maddox‘s injury is the most significant in this matchup, even more than the two quarterbacks. Turf toe is a really tough injury for a cornerback. It’s going to affect his ability to push off, to accelerate and to change direction. Obviously, when you’re trying to cover Travis Kelce and all of Kansas City’s other receivers, that’s going to be something that’s difficult for him to do.
That we saw him only a week ago in a boot — whether or not it was prophylactic to just keep the toe resting — definitely means he is limited. That will be something to watch.
Dr. Jess Flynn is a sports medicine doctor who specializes in injuries relating to athletes. Her insights are routinely used by NFL executives and coaches to discuss draft picks and game-planning as it relates to injuries. Follow her on Twitter @DocFlynnNFL.
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Super Bowl LVII Betting: Best ATS, Value and Prop Bets
The NFL season has all come down to Sunday’s Super Bowl. Two top-seeded teams will square off as the Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs clash. We’ve finished this season strong from a betting perspective. Let’s get a few more wins before we close up shop for the season.
Best ATS Bet
First-Quarter Total: Over 9.5 (-135 at DraftKings)
The last 15 Super Bowls started with an average of 8.6 points in the first quarter of play, but not the last few years. Each of the last three Super Bowls posted exact totals of 10 points. This year, expecting some early scores feels like a smarter wager than ever.
One of my favorite bets in the NFC Championship game was either Philadelphia or San Francisco failing to gain a first down on their first drive. That didn’t end well. Brock Purdy eventually went down to injury on the sixth play of the 49ers’ first possession, but they still got their first down.
The Eagles marched right down the field and opened up the game with a 7-0 lead. In most cases, the first quarter, typically, affords at least three total drives. The team that receives the ball first will usually get two stabs at scoring. That leaves three chances for the Chiefs and Eagles, two teams that averaged a combined 11.2 points per game in the first 15 minutes all season, to put up at least 10 points. I like our chances.
I considered taking the under because of the pressure on both quarterbacks to start the game. After all, the flash bulbs and energy of a Super Bowl kickoff are enough to make a normal man’s stomach churn. On the other hand, the Eagles and Chiefs have the two most consistent offenses in the NFL. They’re the top two teams in points per game, points per first half, points per play and first downs per game.
This is Patrick Mahomes’ third Super Bowl appearance, and I doubt he’ll feel the same pressure as other players. And while Jalen Hurts will probably feel more tension than his opponent, the Eagles’ incredible offensive line and creative play-calling have resulted in 10 touchdowns and two field goals on their opening drives this season. That’s a 63% scoring rate on opening possessions. The Chiefs scored five touchdowns and five field goals on their opening possessions, a rate of 53%.
Bet on the first quarter going over the total and bet it with confidence.
Best Value Bet
Halftime/Full Time: Eagles/Chiefs (+650 everywhere)
This is one of my favorite Super Bowl bets for the value it offers.
The Eagles’ ability to dominate in the first two quarters has been nothing short of amazing. They average a league-high 18.2 points per game in the first 30 minutes, and they only allow 9.6 points per half, which is good for fifth place overall. It’s one of the biggest reasons why Philadelphia has found so much success this season.
They start off hot with explosive plays to big-name skill players such as A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith, and then they apply pressure on opposing offenses with the league’s best defensive line. They lead the league in sacks with a staggering 4.1 per game, and most of those sacks happen in the first half. Philadelphia is a juggernaut first-half team, and I expect them to hold a lead at the end of the first two quarters.
On the full game-winner, you’re betting on the magic of Mahomes. In just five seasons, the NFL’s best quarterback has been a part of 13 fourth-quarter comebacks and 14 game-winning drives in the regular season. Even more importantly, he has two fourth-quarter comebacks and three game-winning drives in the postseason.
He’s done it as recently as two weeks ago against the Cincinnati Bengals, running for a first down that resulted in a personal foul penalty and thus putting his Chiefs in field goal position to win the game. He did it last year in the playoffs against the Buffalo Bills, and he did it the last time he won a Super Bowl back in 2020 against the San Francisco 49ers.
The betting line (1.5) tells us this should be a close game. The Eagles have never played an offense as good as the Chiefs this year — not even close, in fact — and in a one-score game, my money will always be on Mahomes to get the job done.
Best Prop Bet
Isiah Pacheco: Over 15.5 receiving yards (-120 at Bet MGM/DraftKings)
Last week, rookie running back Isiah Pacheco earned the most touches, targets, catches and reception yards in his career. He was a key part of the Chiefs’ victory against the Bengals, and I think he might be needed even more in Super Bowl LVII.
The Chiefs are already without Mecole Hardman (IR), and receivers Kadarius Toney and JuJu Smith-Schuster are not 100 percent. Mahomes will likely rely on Travis Kelce early and often, and I wouldn’t blame anyone if they wanted to bet more of his props; I just love the value we’re getting on such a low line for Pacheco.
The young back has an Ahmad Bradshaw-like style of playing. He has burst, runs smartly with determination and he’s a powerful athlete who doesn’t go down easy. Kansas City was utilizing Jerick McKinnon more and more as the season went on, but lately, his production has dropped. McKinnon was targeted zero times against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Divisional Round and targeted only four times (two catches) for 17 yards against the Bengals. His exposure has been limited, and we expect that to continue.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, the Chiefs’ upstart running back who went down to a high ankle sprain in Week 11, will suit up in Super Bowl LVII, but don’t let that deter you. Pacheco was targeted six times in the AFC Championship game. He turned those six targets into five receptions for 59 yards, a solid 11.8 yards per catch, and he was an integral part of a few key first downs.
His ability to make defenders miss in the short passing game is a perfect tool for the Chiefs’ offense against an Eagles’ defense that’s among the most aggressive in the NFL. Trust that Pacheco will get his opportunities and that he easily eclipses 15 receiving yards.
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Super Bowl LVII Betting and DFS Preview Show
The 33rd Team’s betting and DFS experts break down everything you need to know to place bets and play DFS for Super Bowl LVII between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles.
The guys break down how to be the spread (Eagles -1.5) and the total (51.5), the players with the best DFS matchups and some player props you should add to your ticket. Finally, they close out with their predictions for the final score and MVP.