Formations Will Separate Chiefs, Eagles’ Offenses in Super Bowl LVII

Formations Will Separate Chiefs, Eagles’ Offenses in Super Bowl LVII
This Sunday, the two best offenses in football will meet on the NFL’s biggest stage. And even though Arian Foster was (rightfully) ridiculed for his assertion the NFL is scripted, Roger Goodell himself couldn’t have written the season finale any better. Football is legislated offensively and has been for some time now, as points put […]

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Wednesday Watchman: Betting, DFS Stats to Know for Super Bowl LVII

The time has come. The two best teams in football meet to decide on a champion.

Will Philadelphia Eagles coach Nick Sirianni finally get his playoff 2-point conversion? Will there be a “Philly Special?” Will Kansas City Chiefs receiver Kadarius Toney play, and if so, in which quarter will he be injured? Heads or tails? Will a lineman score a touchdown? I can’t tell you the answers to any of those. But what I can do is tell you Super Bowl LVII will be decided in the trenches.


Focus Statistic

The Chiefs’ offense allows the second-best sack rate at only 3.8%, while the Eagles’ defense ranked first in sack rate at 11.2%. It could be the “unstoppable force meets an immovable object.” Or this could be an inflated number for Philadelphia’s defense given its generally lower quality of opponent. In 26.3% of their matchups, the Eagles faced opponent offenses ranked in the top 10 for sack rate allowed.

Conversely, the Eagles’ offense is ranked 21st in sack rate allowed at 7.3%, while the Chiefs’ defense generates the fifth-best sack rate of 8.2%. In 42.1% of their matchups, the Chiefs’ defense faced a top-10 offense in sacks-allowed (great success even with a tougher defensive line schedule than the Eagles).

As good as the Eagles’ lines have been, the Chiefs are underrated in the trenches.


The trenches are the emphasis because both quarterbacks appear to be partially hampered by injury. Patrick Mahomes has a high ankle sprain, which will still be sore even with the two weeks of rest.

With a possible shoulder injury, Jalen Hurts has not cracked 160 yards passing in these playoffs. But he hasn’t really needed to do so in two blowout wins over the New York Giants and San Francisco 49ers.

It would be interesting if we have a game where Mahomes can’t run and Hurts can’t pass, but I think they will be healed up enough to be the alpha competitors they are. Both coaches are creative and will pull out all the stops.

Do we bet against Howie Roseman’s Philadelphia “team of destiny,” or do we bet against the future GOAT Mahomes? Tough decisions.

The current line is Eagles -1.5 with a total of 50.5. My money will be on the Chiefs and the under.


With only a showdown slate available, you want to be unique in GPP tournaments. Captain an unlikely hero; that alone will differentiate you from the field. Most people will be using one of Mahomes, Hurts, A.J. Brown, or Travis Kelce. Fine options for the roster spot with a multiplier include DeVonta Smith, Miles Sanders and Isiah Pacheco.

Sanders faces a Kansas City defense ranked 22nd in yards per rush and is the lead back on a run-heavy offense. That is why he is my top “best of the rest” candidate if the aforementioned foursome fails to flourish.


Bonus Bet

If you envision an Eagles victory, you could also throw some money on Sanders as MVP. One thing I will do on occasion is take the obvious player from the team I think will win, then throw a dart on a lower-probability player from the other team.

So this year, I might take Mahomes as MVP at +130 for one unit and put an equal amount of money on Sanders at +3000. Shop around for the best odds. If Mahomes wins the award (a likely scenario), then I am up 0.3 units. If Sanders wins, then I am up 29 units. If neither of them wins, then I am down 2 units, which is not devastating. Other, more precise bets can cover the loss.

Caveat: the last time a running back was Super Bowl MVP was Terrell Davis in 1998. There’s no time like the present.

(Data courtesy of SIS and TruMedia Networks)


Super Bowl LVII: Ultimate Guide to Prop Betting, Office Pool Picks

Josh Larky, Ryan Reynolds, Chris Farley and Ben Wolbransky break down their favorite props and novelty picks for Super Bowl LVII between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles.

Super Bowl Squares Analysis

  • 3 and 0 (or 0 and 3) is your best bet
  • 0, 3 and 7 are the three best numbers in general
  • 4 and 7 (or 7 and 4) is an underrated pairing
  • 9, 2 and 8 are the three numbers to avoid


Game/Team Props

Shortest TD Yardage, UNDER 1.5 Yards (+150, Caesars)

  • The Eagles have become somewhat infamous for their success rate at QB sneaks and success in short-yardage/goal-line situations.
  • Each team has six games with a score of fewer than 1.5 yards.
  • Given those numbers, a 1-yard score should happen 47% of the time.
  • However, the implied odds indicate only a 40% chance, giving the under an edge.

Chiefs Fourth-Down Conversions OVER 0.5 (-130)

  • The Chiefs convert fourth downs at a rate of 77%, the second-best in the NFL.
  • Against one of the league’s best defenses and faced with the task of keeping pace with one of the most explosive offenses, Kansas City will most likely need to roll the dice to stay in the game.

Team to Score Longest TD, Eagles (-115)

  • The line has since moved to -135, but there is still value to be had there.
  • This year, the Eagles scored five touchdowns of over 40 yards, while the Chiefs only had four.
  • Touchdowns of 30-40 yards: Eagles six, Chiefs two.
  • Touchdowns of 20-29 yards: Eagles seven, Chiefs three.


First Sack (Team) Chiefs (+102, FanDuel)

  • Even though the Eagles led the league in sacks by a historic margin, the value for the Chiefs’ side makes them the pick here.
  • In Jalen Hurts’ 17 starts, the Eagles allowed eight sacks in the first quarter.
  • Conversely, in Patrick Mahomes’ 19 starts, the Chiefs only allowed three sacks in the first quarter.
  • The Eagles allowed 21 sacks in the first halves of Hurts’ starts; the Chiefs, only 13 sacks in 19 starts.
  • Finally, the Eagles have been better at sacking teams in the second half of games, when their opponents are down by multiple scores and trying to mount a comeback.

Eagles lead at Halftime, Chiefs lead End of Game, +650

  • Eagles have been the best halftime ATS team in the NFL this season.
  • They are also the highest-scoring first-half team in the NFL, albeit the Chiefs are No. 2.
  • This fits both the narratives of the Eagles as a fast-starting team and the Chiefs as a come-from-behind team, thanks to Mahomes.

Player Props

Isiah Pacheco, OVER 16.5 Yards Receiving


First Reception, Travis Kelce (-120) or A.J. Brown (+112) (FanDuel)

  • Essentially, this comes down to who wins the coin flip, as these two players are the primary receivers for their respective teams.
  • In 19 games, Travis Kelce had a reception on 11 first drives.
  • A.J. Brown recorded 11 receptions on first drives as well with Jalen Hurts at quarterback.
  • Given the more favorable odds for Brown, go with the Eagles WR1.

First Player to Reach 10 Yards Rushing, Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+3,300)

  • This is quite the longshot, as this will be Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s first action since Week 11.
  • However, given that he is finally healthy and the Chiefs may want to feature their former first-round pick, 1-in-33 odds could make for a great payout.
  • With CEH returning to the lineup, the Chiefs may want to reintegrate him to the offense quickly to give them another option at running back.
  • How would they do that? Giving him plenty of touches, and thus increasing the likelihood he gets to 10 yards rushing first.
  • Furthermore, getting in on these odds before they become much more reasonable (+700-800) could create quite the edge.

First Touchdown Scorer

  • Jalen Hurts was second in the league in rushing touchdowns (13), despite missing a few games toward the end of the season.
  • Miles Sanders was eighth with 11.
  • Travis Kelce was second among all pass-catchers (12).
  • Along with A.J. Brown, in a pool, any of the aforementioned four are your best options.
  • But if you’re betting straight up, better to go with a longshot outlier, given the odds on the favorites.
  • With plenty of games on tape and nothing left to hold back, both coaches could reach deep into their bag of tricks to surprise the opposing defense.
  • Quez Watkins (+3500) or Skyy Moore (+4500) are among the more intriguing longshot options.

Travis Kelce, Anytime TD Scorer (-130)

  • Yeah, it’s pretty obvious.
  • But if the Eagles’ defense has any weakness, it’s over the middle against the linebackers, where Kelce already thrives.
  • Given the narratives surrounding the Kelces this week, it’s hard to imagine Travis not getting in the end zone.
  • Get in on this line as soon as possible, as some books still have it at -120 or even -110.


Jalen Hurts Passing TD Before Interception, (-280, Caesar’s Sportsbook)

  • The odds imply nearly a 74% chance of this happening.
  • Like many mobile quarterbacks, Hurts rarely throws interceptions to begin with, as he would rather tuck and run than force the ball into tight coverage.
  • In the 14 games where Hurts had a passing TD or an interception, 11 of those games featured him throwing the TD first (79%).
  • In addition to that math, the Chiefs allowed the most passing touchdowns in the NFL during the regular season.
  • Finally, only nine teams had fewer interceptions than the Chiefs.

First Sack (Player), Chris Jones or Josh Sweat

  • Chris Jones is the better option than pretty much any of the Eagles’ defenders because there are simply too many of them.
  • Jones is the guy for the Chiefs.
  • But if you really want an Eagle, the best value is probably Josh Sweat.
  • The strength of the Chiefs’ offensive line is its interior, so better to go with an edge rusher, especially one who will probably get more one-on-one opportunities than Haason Reddick or Brandon Graham.

Super Bowl MVP

  • Unlike in the regular season, the Super Bowl MVP is not solely a quarterback award, even though they win it 60% of the time vs. 85-90% in the regular season.
  • Ryan has Travis Kelce as the best bet, giving him +700-800 odds.
  • Last year’s MVP, Cooper Kupp, was +650.
  • Kelce has the best matchup by far among the Chiefs’ offensive weapons.
  • Mahomes already has a Super Bowl MVP, so the voters might not be looking to give it to him without an incredible performance.
  • Even though the winning QB is most likely to win, Kelce will get his targets regardless.
  • Finally, if any tight end were to become the first at his position to win Super Bowl MVP, it would probably be Kelce.
  • If you’re sticking with the Eagles, take the chalk and go with Hurts.
  • There’s some value to be had with the Philly defense, as shutting down Mahomes could go a long way toward winning the award.


Kadarius Toney OVER 49.5 Yards Receiving and Score TD (+1,000, FanDuel)

  • Kadarius Toney had 25% snap share of higher in five games for the Chiefs this year.
  • They want him to be 30-40% snap share.
  • In two of those five games, he had at least 57 yards receiving or scored a TD; in one, he did both.
  • It’s a long shot, but in the Super Bowl, anything can happen.

Novelty Props

Gatorade Color

  • Correlate the team’s general color with the Gatorade.
  • If you think the Eagles will win, go with green/lime or maybe even yellow.
  • If you think the Chiefs will win, pick red or orange.
  • Both teams have historical precedence with yellow and orange.


National Anthem Length

  • The line is higher than usual at two minutes, one second, with some books even moving it up to two minutes, four seconds.
  • Furthermore, the over is being juiced (-130, even to -145).
  • Per Ben Wolby’s analysis, Chris Stapleton’s songs, albums and performances are significantly longer than other artists.

Rihanna’s First Song, Outfit

  • In Super Bowls past, Katy Perry opened with “Roar”, Lady Gaga started with “Edge of Glory” and Coldplay began with “Viva La Vida”.
  • All are relatively upbeat songs with discussions of victory, historical success, etc.
  • “Diamonds” or “Umbrella,” therefore, are the frontrunners.
  • Plus, in every video, she was wearing black.
  • However, the in-house Rihanna “stan” himself, Josh Larky, counters with “Please Don’t Stop The Music,” (+150) as a fast-paced, solo feature to get the crowd riled up.
  • But Larky and Reynolds agree black is the color of choice.

WATCH: Super Bowl LVII Betting Preview


Kurt Warner: Mahomes Has to Play Better Than in Super Bowl LV to Beat Eagles

Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner sees a lot of similarities between himself and Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes as Mahomes enters his third Super Bowl. Mahomes knows he has to play better than he did in Super Bowl LV vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers if the Chiefs are going to beat the Philadelphia Eagles.

Anything for an Edge: Inside Super Bowl Advance Scouting Reports

Anything for an Edge: Inside Super Bowl Advance Scouting Reports
The Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs’ pro personnel departments have had many long night the last phree weeks, helping prepare their teams for Super Bowl LVII. Every NFL team has a pro personnel department. It typically consists of a director and three to four pro scouts. These folks are tasked with evaluating every player in […]

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