Expert Analysis
12/13/24
4 min read
Will The Kansas City Chiefs' Luck in One-Score Games Ever Run Out?
The Kansas City Chiefs are impossible. Statistically speaking, they cannot exist.
Not only are they 10-0 in one-score games this year, which is incredible enough in its own right, but dating back to last year, they have won fifteen (15!) one-score games in a row. That is absolutely unheard of.
Ironically, the previous record holder was the 2003 and 2004 Patriots, who won 13 such games straight. They were also the last team to win back-to-back Super Bowls and be considered a dynasty until the Chiefs pulled off that feat.
Unlike during the Patriots’ era, we now have advanced win probability metrics during games, which shine an even brighter light on just how ludicrous this stretch has been for Kansas City.
Look at what the Chiefs’ win probability was at one point in each of these 15 games:
The odds of a team winning 75 percent of those games are incredibly small. Winning them all? Infinitesimal.
Yet, that is the run the Chiefs are on right now, where a killer combo of clutch players, a first-ballot Hall of Fame coach, massive belief among all involved, and a healthy portion of good fortune that some would call luck have propelled them to the greatest run of close victories we have ever seen.
The Hall of Fame coach is self-explanatory. The clutch players are led primarily by a quarterback in Patrick Mahomes, who already rivals seven-time Super Bowl champion Tom Brady in terms of his ability to make the critical plays needed to win games late — or, perhaps more importantly, not make the mistakes that so often cost teams late in these games.
The massive belief that they will find a way to win in all these situations cannot be overstated. I can speak to that at some level, and I actually tell people often when they ask me what it was like to be teammates with Brady in New England for a short time.
The best way I can describe it is that if you have a good quarterback, you think you will win when you get into those close situations late in games. When you have a quarterback that’s not very good, you hope you will win in those spots.
If you have Brady or Mahomes, you know you will win those games because you have the guy who seemingly always gets it done. Even if you don’t win occasionally, you still feel that way when the moment arises. That belief permeates throughout the entire organization, giving supreme confidence to players who otherwise might not have it, leading to stellar play.
Moving forward, the question is, what does that mean for the rest of this season and, more importantly, the postseason and the Chiefs’ effort for an unprecedented third straight Lombardi Trophy?
Does this streak, and all of the reasons for it, make the Chiefs more likely to win the closely contested playoff games? Or will the law of averages or regression to the mean finally catch up with them at the worst possible time? Can the answer be both?
The Chiefs have the worst point differential (+56) ever for a 12-1 team, and you have to believe that at some point, the Raiders won’t fumble the snap or the Broncos tight end on the kicking unit won’t get airlifted to Wichita or the doink won’t carom in for another KC victory.
This streak will not last 30 games, 5 years, or whatever other ridiculous metric you can conjure. It will end.
The question is: when?
While a strong case can be made that the Chiefs would be better off getting that loss out of their system before the playoffs begin, who knows whether or not that will even matter when the Mahomes magic kicks in.
Either way, it will be a fascinating watch.
