Analysis
11/22/22
4 min read
Should Chargers Have Kicked or Gone for Two in Loss to Chiefs?
In Sunday night’s matchup against the Chiefs, the Chargers were faced with a decision that got us thinking about the nuts and bolts of in-game tactics, even if it wasn’t a crucial spot in the game.
Austin Ekeler had just scored a touchdown while enduring possibly the most prolonged facemask grab of all time, so they were faced with the choice of attempting a two-point try from the 1-yard line or kicking off from the 50-yard line. They elected to take the short kick, and it worked out as well as could be expected because Isiah Pacheco took the return out of bounds at his own 6-yard line instead of letting it (probably) bounce out of bounds.
How much of a difference might that choice have been worth in the moment, especially if the kick had gone awry?
First, let’s look at the two-point situation, comparing the likelihood of success with one yard to go versus two.
Teams go for two a lot these days, but we don’t have a ton of examples of one-yard tries, so let’s take a more extensive set of plays to compare. If we consider all plays that are either fourth downs or two-point attempts from the 1 or 2-yard line since the start of 2018, that extra yard means an extra 5% chance of success. In the second quarter, you might not think the difference between being up by three and up by 5 is that valuable. SIS’s win probability model actually suggests that being up by an additional two points in that spot gives you a 7% better chance to win overall.
To figure out the value of that extra yard, we can just do a little math:
-In both situations, the win probability is roughly 58% if you fail and 65% if you succeed.
-A try from the 1-yard line has a ~55% chance of success. That’s an expected win probability of a little under 62%.
-A try from the 2-yard line has a ~50% chance of success. That’s an expected win probability of 61.5%.
So, the extra yard doesn’t move the needle much, even if the points might.
The value of the difference in field position
Like with short two-point attempts, there aren’t a ton of examples of kickoffs from the 50-yard line, with less than 100 in the last four-plus seasons. The ones we have seen have resulted in better field position for the kicking team, but not by much.
Kickoff Results by Kick Location, 2018-22
| Avg Field Pos | Touchback% | Return Short of 20 | |
| Own 35 | Own 25 | 61% | 8% |
| Midfield | Own 21 | 41% | 38% |
Kicks from midfield result in substantially fewer touchbacks, and the coverage team is dramatically more likely to prevent the returner from making it to the 20-yard line. This doesn’t manifest in much of a difference in average field position, but it does represent the kind of result the Chargers were banking on.
And they got more than they could have expected, really. The specific situation of Pacheco fielding a kick that might have gone out of bounds is quite high-leverage. That change in field position (from the 6 to the 40) was worth about as much as a successful two-point conversion would be—a difference between LA having a 65% chance to win and a 58% chance.
Of course, we know that leading a game against Patrick Mahomes with three minutes left in the game, let alone three minutes left in the first half, doesn’t feel nearly as secure as those win probabilities suggest.
Given the spot in the game, there wasn’t a bad option for the Chargers. Yet, it’s helpful for teams to think through those choices often so that they know how they’re going to handle a crucial situation when it presents itself.
Presented by Alex Vigderman
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