NFL Analysis
9/26/24
5 min read
Sam Darnold, Derek Carr Rewriting NFL Legacies With Resurgent Second Acts
The 2024 NFL season may not be the year of gaudy passing numbers, but it's definitely the year of redemption stories for veteran quarterbacks.
At least early on, fans are seeing career revivals from quarterbacks around the league. Sam Darnold looks like an MVP candidate for the Minnesota Vikings, Derek Carr is on pace for a career year with the New Orleans Saints, and Malik Willis led the Green Bay Packers to a 2-0 record despite being a backup with a disappointing reputation in Tennessee.
Even Geno Smith, Baker Mayfield, and Jared Goff have seen recent success in the last couple of years after being written off by the teams that drafted them.
This redemption arc is no longer a once-in-a-while occurrence in the NFL. It's becoming a recurring theme that is helping turn downtrodden veterans back into Pro Bowl-caliber starters around the league.
Survive And Thrive
Quarterbacks who are down on their luck before becoming NFL stars aren't new. Just ask iconic former NFL coach Mike Martz.
Martz is best known for his time as offensive coordinator for the Greatest Show on Turf, helping lead a high-powered St. Louis Rams offense to a Super Bowl XXXIV title against the Tennessee Titans with QB Kurt Warner. A former Arena Football League quarterback who went undrafted out of college, Martz and the Rams coaching staff helped turn Warner into a two-time MVP and Super Bowl champion.
Martz would later become the head coach of the Rams and is credited by Warner himself for helping him read defenses and start attacking downfield in the passing game. Along with Warner, Martz helped revitalize the careers of multiple quarterbacks, including Marc Bulger and Jon Kitna.
When Martz watches today's situation at the position, he notices recurring struggles among some of the veteran quarterbacks.
"I think development was the most important thing," Martz told The 33rd Team. "I don't think there are many organizations where they know how to, or are willing to, develop at that position."
"There are a lot more good quarterbacks than there are good situations for quarterbacks in the league."
While Martz didn't mention any organizations by name, the New York Jets are a franchise that has been put under a microscope for constantly whiffing on draft picks at the position. Both Geno Smith and Sam Darnold were originally drafted by the Jets, only to revive their careers elsewhere.
For Darnold specifically, his struggles in New York kept him from finding a suitable starting job in the last few seasons, with stops in Carolina and San Francisco before landing with the Vikings. After J.J. McCarthy's season-ending knee injury, Darnold was forced into the starting lineup, where head coach Kevin O'Connell has turned him into one of the most effective QBs in the league.
Through three games, Darnold leads the NFL with eight passing touchdowns, completing nearly 68 percent of his passes for 657 yards and a 117.3 passer rating.
"I think that Minnesota is a great situation for any quarterback," Martz said.
Before he generated MVP buzz, Darnold struggled to find any confidence throughout his NFL career. He had gone just 21-35 as a starter before landing with the Vikings, completing less than 60 percent of his passes with 63 passing touchdowns and 56 interceptions.
"What happens is these quarterbacks get in survival mode," Martz said. "But the young guy coming up, who is trying to learn the game, they're never really taught the game at the NFL basic level yet. So they're going too fast, they can't make decisions properly. There's a way of treating all of that."
The Jets are now hoping to contend for a Super Bowl after trading for a future Hall of Fame quarterback in Aaron Rodgers, but their track record of developing young QBs has kept them out of postseason contention since 2010.
Martz believes that the development isn't the fault of the player but of the organization.
"They put a kid that doesn't have the information or the preparation because they don't know the preparation," Martz said. "I can't stress enough that once they've played and been successful, there's a whole different approach to it."
Like other former Jets quarterbacks, Darnold had his confidence completely shot in New York. One of his most noteworthy moments came during a mic-up moment when he told his teammates that he was "seeing ghosts" when trying to get the ball out.
Exactly one year ago today, Sam Darnold was “seeing ghosts” 😂pic.twitter.com/lM1dknZpGE
— Guy Boston Sports (@GuyBostonSports) October 21, 2020
Although that confidence may have been lost, Martz believes that quarterbacks can always regain it in the right spot.
"They gotta hit rock bottom," Martz said about quarterbacks who revived their careers. "And those are the guys that I felt good about developing. Those guys that have been kicked around, on the verge of being out of the league, it's their last chance, and they're angry. They take in every word you say, they trust you, they just want to make it. When you get them in that position, then they can see their progress as well."
The Original Quarterback Comeback Story
There are not many quarterbacks in NFL history who can relate to guys like Darnold, Carr and Smith quite like former NFL MVP Rich Gannon.
Before he was eventually honored with the league's most prestigious individual award, Gannon was a fourth-round pick of the Minnesota Vikings.
Gannon spent time behind two Pro Bowl quarterbacks, Tommy Kramer and Wade Wilson, early on in Minnesota. Although he got to learn and didn't have to play right away, he felt like it was never his team to run under center. That situation got even worse in his final season with the Vikings when Dennis Green was named head coach.
Although Gannon was named the starting quarterback for the 1992 season, Green benched him in favor of Sean Salisbury despite an 8-3 start.
"He was just awful for me," Gannon revealed to The 33rd Team. "He never said a word to me; he never embraced me."
Things got worse before they got better. Gannon was traded to Washington before the 1993 season, where he played sparingly. He then sat out the entire 1994 season due to a shoulder injury before signing with the Kansas City Chiefs the following year.
It was in Kansas City where Gannon finally started to turn his career around. He credits former Chiefs offensive coordinator Paul Hackett and a young quarterbacks coach named Mike McCarthy for his late-career resurgence.
"Mike [McCarthy] really helped me," Gannon said. "I really started to understand protections, footwork, and all the West Coast stuff...He's honestly one of the best coaches that I've ever had."
Gannon started to see the results of that coaching. In his final two seasons for the Chiefs, he played in 21 games, throwing for more than 3,400 yards, 17 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. That time in Kansas City helped him prepare for his next opportunity with Jon Gruden and the Oakland Raiders.
The Raiders signed Gannon in free agency before the 1999 season. He became the starter that year and didn't look back, starting in every game through the 2002 season. As Oakland's starting quarterback, he would make four straight Pro Bowls, be selected as a first-team All-Pro twice, and help take the Raiders to the Super Bowl with an MVP season in 2002.
That 2002 season culminated over a decade of waiting for his chance to be the guy. He led the NFL with 418 completions and 4,689 passing yards that year, completing a career-high 68 percent of his passes for 26 touchdowns and 10 interceptions.
Rich Gannon's 2002 MVP season with the Raiders 🍿pic.twitter.com/JDgHzKG72B
— Football’s Greatest Moments (@FBGreatMoments) July 5, 2024
However, none of that success could have happened without the spark the coaching staff gave Gannon in Kansas City.
"I was really hungry to have someone believe in me," Gannon said. "That's the most important thing I can tell you. The quarterback has to be confident; he has to have trust in the head coach and play caller, and I had never had that."
Gannon sees many similarities between his career and Darnold's. After spending time with multiple franchises that lost faith and confidence in him, he believes that Darnold's time in San Francisco around a strong coaching staff as a backup helped him regain his confidence before earning the trust of Kevin O'Connell in Minnesota.
Darnold and Mayfield are just a couple of examples that Gannon mentioned of first-round quarterbacks who weren't given the proper time or resources to develop early in their careers.
"There are very few quarterbacks that come into the NFL ready to play," Gannon said. "Peyton Manning went 3-13 in his first season. That training early on in your career is really important."
Gannon described the situation that many young quarterbacks experience as "Alex Smith syndrome." The No. 1 pick in 2005, Smith worked with six different offensive coordinators during his time with the San Francisco 49ers.
"It's just a dysfunctional work environment for a guy like that," Gannon said.
Smith would eventually settle into his role as a starter with the Chiefs, where he became a three-time Pro Bowler and even led the NFL in passer rating in 2017. A stable coaching staff and improved situation around him helped the former No. 1 overall pick live up to that lofty draft status.
"That common theme is that these players went through adversity and lost their confidence, but then they came across good coaching," Gannon said.
Gannon believes that quarterbacks like these are dealing with a real discrepancy in the coaching profession. While there's been significant turnover around the league at quarterback, there has been just as much (if not more) at head coach and offensive coordinator.
According to Gannon, the coaches who have stayed with their respective teams and have a track record of developing quarterbacks are the ones who aren't afraid to challenge their players.
"There are some coaches that do a really good job at handling the position," Gannon argued. But there are also coaches who baby these quarterbacks. You've got to hold them accountable. You're doing a tremendous disservice to a quarterback by coddling them."
Gannon was challenged by coaches like Gruden and Marty Schottenheimer during his NFL career, and he believes that this wave of quarterbacks having a career resurgence is being challenged in a similar way.
How Scheme Helped This Wave Of Resurgent Quarterbacks
As someone who has helped Kirk Cousins and Andy Dalton develop into Pro Bowl quarterbacks, Jay Gruden knows a thing or two about quarterback play.
Gruden spoke with The 33rd Team about some of the league's current quarterbacks thriving in new situations, emphasizing their ability to stay ahead of the chains.
"When you're ahead of the chains like these players have been in their new situations, it makes it easier on the play caller and quarterback," Gruden said. "If you can stay ahead of the chains, it opens up the run game and play action and makes it a hell of a lot easier on your quarterback."
His biggest assertions about these quarterbacks playing in more advantageous situations ring true. Through three weeks, the Vikings, Saints, Packers, Buccaneers, and Seahawks all rank in the top 10 in the amount of time spent with the lead.
The Saints, Packers, and Vikings also rank in the top 10 in average starting field position. They are also in the top third of the league in lowest three-and-out and third-and-punt rates.
Staying ahead of the sticks is also a massive part of what's making these quarterbacks experiencing a career resurgence successful. That starts on first down, where Carr, Darnold, Smith, Mayfield, and Goff all rank in the top 10 in yards per attempt on first down.
Carr is one of the players experiencing a career year seemingly out of nowhere. After struggling in his first season with the Saints, new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak is helping Carr look like a Pro Bowler again thanks to his usage of personnel and formations.
One reason Gruden believes Kubiak is helping unlock Carr's strengths is the use of two tight end (or 12) personnel. According to TruMedia, the Saints ranked 22nd in 12 personnel usage in 2023, but they jumped to ninth in 2024.
"Nowadays, there's so much nickel defense in football that teams don't have a third linebacker who can play effectively against the run and play-action pass," Gruden said.
Carr is picking defenses apart when his offense is in 12 personnel. TruMedia credits him with a 145.8 passer rating in two tight end sets, completing 77.8 percent of his passes for 182 yards and two touchdowns.
Situation has mattered for a lot of these quarterbacks who are having late-career breakouts, but Gruden also mentions how competitive the QBs who are finally succeeding have to be to turn their careers around.
Carr's competitiveness has never been a secret.
TRENDING: #Panthers CB Jaycee Horn tried to trash talk #Saints QB Derek Carr,
— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) September 9, 2024
who then put Horn in a body bag
“I GOT 3 TOUCHDOWNS ON YOU.”
DAMNNN
pic.twitter.com/7Zb7yWMGRt
"Quarterbacks want to be challenged," Gruden said about the relationship between a QB and a coach. "Criteria No. 1 and No. 1A for a successful quarterback is to be tough and competitive. Not just physically competitive tough, but mentally tough."
Who Is the Next Late Breakout Quarterback?
One theme was echoed by Martz, Gruden, and Gannon: successful quarterbacks need to be in the right situation, they need to have the right coaching relationship established in trust and accountability, and the player themselves needs to be competitive and mentally tough.
All of the quarterbacks who have been discussed check those boxes. Whether it's Geno Smith and Malik Willis leaving for better situations, Darnold establishing a strong connection with O'Connell, or Carr's fiery competitiveness forcing him back into greatness, all of their stories have similarities throughout their career arcs.
Their stories give hope to other quarterbacks who have become afterthoughts early in their careers. Perhaps Bryce Young can find success again one day with a better situation around him. Trey Lance is sitting behind Dak Prescott in Dallas after getting just four games as a starting quarterback in San Francisco. Justin Fields might even be experiencing his own career renaissance in Pittsburgh in 2024.
If those quarterbacks have the hunger and competitiveness that guys like Carr and Mayfield possess, then they could end up becoming great quarterbacks in the right circumstances.
