Betting
11/5/22
9 min read
NFL Week 9 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Titans vs. Chiefs
Sunday Night Football: Tennessee Titans (5-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (5-2)
Opening Spread: Chiefs -11
Opening Game Total: 46.5
Opening Team Totals: Chiefs (28.75), Titans (17.75)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Chiefs -11.
- This line has moved up to Chiefs -12.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Chiefs -12.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Chiefs -12.5.
- This total opened at 46.5 points.
- This total has remained at 46.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Chiefs: Out: Edge Frank Clark
Titans: Out: FB Tory Carter, WR Treylon Burks, LT Taylor Lewan, OG Jamarcus Jones, Edge Harold Landry, S Amani Hooker; Questionable: DL Jefferey Simmons, Edge Bud Dupree
The Chiefs Offense vs. Titans Defense
This is a strength vs. strength trench matchup, as the Chiefs have a top-five caliber offensive line while the Titans have a top-ten level defensive front. The strength of both lines is their interior. Neither team has a significant advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Chiefs are 3-4 against the spread this season.
- The Chiefs are 4-3 on overs this season.
- Patrick Mahomes is 37-31-2 against the spread in his career.
- Patrick Mahomes is 38-31-1 on overs in his career.
- Andy Reid is 193-160-7 against the spread since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
- Andy Reid is 177-172-11 on overs since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
Chiefs Offense
- The Chiefs are scoring 31.9 points per game, which is the best in the league.
- Kansas City is second in the league in yards passing per game and 23rd in yards rushing.
- Currently, Isiah Pacheco, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Jerick McKinnon are all part of a three-way timeshare at running back. McKinnon is seeing the most opportunities in the passing game.
- Per the Edge JuJu Smith-Schuster has eight targets in four of his last five games. Smith-Schuster has breached 100 yards receiving in each of his last two games.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling is currently the third option in the Chiefs' passing attack, with a 15.3% target share and a 25.6% air yards share.
- Mecole Hardman has run 148 routes against MVS’s 227.
- Newly acquired wide receiver Kadarius Toney likely gets eased into the offense.
- Travis Kelce is sixth in the league in receptions (47), tenth in yards receiving (553), and tied for the league lead in receiving touchdowns (7). Kelce’s 24.1% target share and his 25.1% air yards share are both third among tight ends.
- Per TruMedia, JuJu Smith-Schuster has played 181 snaps on the perimeter and 137 in the slot.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling has played 214 snaps on the perimeter and 112 in the slot.
- Travis Kelce has played 113 snaps as an in-line tight end, 96 on the perimeter, and 137 in the slot.
Titans Defense
- The Titans have allowed 19.7 points per game, which is ninth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Titans have allowed the 29th-most yards rushing per game and the 12th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Tennessee has given up the seventh-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Tennessee has given up the third-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers.
- The Titans have allowed the 11th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Titans have allowed the second-most PPR points per game to in-line tight ends.
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The Titans Offense vs. Chiefs Defense
The Titans have a bottom-tier offensive line while the Chiefs have a fringe-top ten front. Kansas City is down Frank Clark, which is a positive for Tennessee. Still, Chris Jones is among the very best interior players in the league, and he gives the Chiefs' front an edge in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Titans are 5-2 against the spread this season.
- The Titans are 2-5 on overs this season.
- Ryan Tannehill is 69-67-3 against the spread in his career.
- Ryan Tannehill is 74-63-2 on overs in his career.
- Mike Vrabel is 38-33-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Mike Vrabel is 40-31-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Titans Offense
- The Titans are scoring 18.9 points per game, good for 24th in the league.
- Tennessee is 31st in the league in yards passing per game and ninth in yards rushing.
- Ryan Tannehill is considered a game-time decision. Tennessee brought up Logan Woodside to serve as the backup quarterback if Malik Willis starts once again.
- In Willis’s first NFL start last week, Tennessee had 10 passing attempts and 45 rushing attempts in its 17-10 win over the Texans.
- I don’t need to tell you this, but the Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs are on opposite sides of the NFL spectrum.
- Per the Edge, the Big Dog Derrick Henry is third in the league in yards rushing.
- Henry has 90 total carries and six targets over his last three games. Dontrelle Hilliard could start taking more off the Big Dog’s plate sooner than later.
- Robert Woods has four or less targets in three of the last four games. Woods has eight or more targets twice this season.
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Cody Hollister, and Chris Conley make up the rest of the Titans' active wide receiver group. Westbrook-Ikhine, at least, has three years of rapport with Ryan Tannehill.
- Tight end Austin Hooper only has 10 receptions on the season.
- Per TruMedia, Robert Woods has played 194 snaps on the perimeter and 87 in the slot.
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine has played 176 snaps on the perimeter and 104 in the slot.
- Austin Hooper has played 108 snaps as an in-line tight end, 28 from the perimeter, and 63 in the slot.
Chiefs Defense
- The Chiefs have allowed 24.6 points per game, which is 23rd in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Chiefs have allowed the 27th-most yards rushing per game and the most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Kansas City has given up the sixth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Kansas City has given up the second-most PPR points per game to slot receivers.
- The Chiefs have allowed the 15th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Chiefs have allowed the third-most PPR points per game to tight ends in the slot.
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This Is What You’re Betting on in Chiefs vs. Titans
Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill is a game-time decision. His availability has a major impact on this game, as the Titans have a more reliable offense with him. We saw last week that Tennessee has limited faith in Malik Willis at this stage. A primetime road game in Kansas City is an uphill battle for Tannehill, it would be an even bigger one for the rookie quarterback.
A bet on the Chiefs is always a bet on Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid’s offense. In some ways, I’d argue that Mahomes is having his best season to date. The Chiefs are the league’s highest scoring offense and are a pass-centric group. If you’re betting on the Chiefs, you are betting on them to shred Tennessee through the air. If you’re betting on the Chiefs you’re getting a line play edge in this game, as Kansas City’s front gets the Titans' below average offensive line in this contest. If Kansas City jumps out to a considerable lead, that line play advantage gives the Chiefs a realistic path to winning this game by two scores. The Titans blew out the Chiefs 27-3 last year in Tennessee; I don’t think the Chiefs have forgotten that game. Your biggest concern as a Chiefs bettor is that Derrick Henry has a massive game like he did against Buffalo in a similar spot last year.
A bet on the Titans is a bet on a tough, physical football team that has a reputation of overachieving in the Mike Vrabel era. Vrabel’s Titans have gotten me a few times in games very similar to this one. That said, Tennessee has to overcome a number of obstacles in this contest. The first is this offense is radically different if Tannehill can’t go or is severely limited. If Tannehill can play, he can’t exactly go punch for punch with the Patrick Mahomes's of the world in a high-level shootout, but he can provide efficient offense when he’s at his best. Tennessee’s offensive line entered the year as a below average unit; that was before they lost their left tackle for the year. The Titans' offense faces a line play disadvantage in this contest. Then comes the other obvious factor: If you’re the Titans, you have to keep Patrick Mahomes' offense from meeting expectations. The Titans are getting 12 points, which is a ton in an NFL game, but they are facing a number of significant obstacles in this contest.
Awards Market Ramifications: Patrick Mahomes is an MVP contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to take the Chiefs in all my winner pools, though the Titans serve as an aggressive differentiator option that has knocked off similar opponents in the recent past. I expect to be right in line with consensus on this game in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: The Titans and the Commanders are the two teams that I don’t have a great read on this season. I can’t get to a Titans' cover from a pure football standpoint, but I don’t really want to bet against a Mike Vrabel team getting 12 points, either.
Survivor Pool: Kansas City is a better survivor pool option if Ryan Tannehill misses this contest. Regardless of who starts at quarterback for the Titans, I’m saving Kansas City in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 27-13
Props 2022: 26-15
WATCH MORE: Don't Fear Starting Kansas City's Marquez Valdes-Scantling in Week 9 Fantasy
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