Betting
10/28/22
7 min read
NFL Week 8 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Bears vs. Cowboys
Chicago Bears (3-4) at Dallas Cowboys (5-2)
Opening Spread: Cowboys -10
Opening Game Total: 42.5
Opening Team Totals: Cowboys (26.25), Bears (16.25)
Weather: Indoors
The Line Report
- This line opened as Cowboys -10.
- This line has moved to Cowboys -9.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Cowboys -9.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Cowboys -9.5.
- This total opened at 42.5 points.
- This total remains at 42.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Cowboys: IR: LT Tyron Smith, CB Jourdan Lewis; Questionable: RB Ezekiel Elliot, WR Noah Brown, TE Dalton Schultz, RT Terence Steele.
Bears: Questionable: RT Larry Borom.
The Cowboys Offense vs. Bears Defense
The Bears already had a below average front four before trading edge Robert Quinn. The Cowboys have a top-ten caliber offensive line. Dallas has an advantage in the trenches on offense.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Cowboys are 5-2 against the spread this season.
- The Cowboys are 2-5 on overs this season.
- Dak Prescott is 49-35-3 against the spread in his career.
- Prescott is 41-46 on overs in his career.
- Mike McCarthy is 135-104-5 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- McCarthy is 132-110-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Cowboys Offense
- The Cowboys are scoring 19.1 points per game, good for 22nd in the league.
- Dallas is 27th in the league in yards passing per game and 14th in yards rushing.
- Keep in mind that Prescott has only started two games this season.
- Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliot is trending towards missing this contest with a knee injury. If that becomes official, Tony Pollard will be the primary runner for Dallas.
- Pollard is an explosive talent that can be a factor both as a runner and as a pass-catcher.
- Per the Edge, among all pass catchers CeeDee Lamb has the second highest target share (32.4%) and the ninth highest air yards share (38.8%) in the league.
- Since returning from injury Michael Gallup has played in four games. Over that span he has totaled eight receptions on 17 targets for 86 yards receiving and a score.
- Like Prescott, Cowboys tight end Dalton Schultz returned to action against the Lions where he caught all five of his targets for 49 yards receiving. Schultz had nine targets on opening day, which is the only other game that Prescott has started this season.
Bears Defense
- The Bears have allowed 18.9 points per game, which is seventh in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Bears have allowed the seventh-most yards rushing per game and the 16th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Chicago has given up the third-fewest yards receiving to wide receivers this year.
- The Bears have allowed the fifth-fewest yards receiving to tight ends this season.
The Bears Offense vs. Cowboys Defense
The Cowboys have a top-five caliber pass rush. The Bears have a bottom-tier offensive line. The Cowboys' pass rush has a potentially game-derailing edge in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Bears are 3-3-1 against the spread this season.
- Chicago is 3-4 on overs this season.
- Justin Fields is 7-11-1 against the spread in his career.
- Fields is 7-12 on overs in his career.
- Matt Eberflus is 3-3-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Eberflus is 3-4 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Bears Offense
- The Bears are scoring 18 points per game, good for 24th in the league.
- Chicago is last in the league in yards passing per game, and it has the most yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Justin Fields is second among quarterbacks in yards rushing with 364.
- Over the last five games, Fields has a range of 47 yards rushing up to 88. He’s breached 80 yards rushing in each of the last two games.
- Last week against the Patriots, David Montgomery (15 carries) and Khalil Herbert (12 carries) both had 62 yards rushing.
- Darnell Mooney is eighth in the league in target share (29.3%) and second in air yards share (45.7%).
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Cowboys Defense
- The Cowboys have allowed 14.9 points per game, which is second in the league.
- Our scouting department has the Cowboys' defense ranked as the league’s fourth-best defense.
- Per The Edge, the Cowboys have allowed the 15th-most yards rushing per game and the fifth-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this year.
- Dallas has allowed the 23rd-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this season.
- The Cowboys have given up the 23rd-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this year.
This Is What You’re Betting on in Cowboys vs. Bears
The Bears are coming off a major, blowout victory against the Patriots, in Foxborough, on Monday Night Football. After that win, Chicago then traded edge Robert Quinn to the Eagles. Chicago is in a classic letdown spot. Prescott and the Cowboys offense came out rusty against the Lions last week, but they got better as the day went on in their 24-6 win. Dallas has a better roster than the Bears at virtually every position group. The Cowboys' offensive line has a significant advantage in this contest. The Cowboys' pass rush has a potentially game derailing advantage in this contest.
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If you’re betting on Dallas, that above paragraph is what you’re betting on. I have two related concerns in a Cowboys bet. The first is that Prescott’s offense comes out slow again like they did last week against Detroit. If that happens and Chicago is able to run the ball effectively, that will allow the Bears to throw more selectively which will give them a better shot of managing the Cowboys pass rush. That game flow is the Bears best shot of keeping this game tight.
If you’re betting on the Bears, you are betting on Fields and a scrappy Bears defense managing all of the disadvantages that Chicago faces in this matchup. If the Bears fall behind by two scores, they will either continue to deploy a run-centric offense or they’ll be squaring off with the Cowboys' high-end pass rush. If you’re betting on Chicago in this spot, that’s your biggest concern.
Awards Market Ramifications: Micah Parsons is the current favorite in the Defensive Player of the Year race.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to take Dallas in all of my winner pools and I’m going to rank them on top in my confidence pools.
Spread Pool: Cowboys -9.5 is in my pool of options in my ATS tournaments. I expect that I will play Dallas in at least one of my tournament entries.
Survivor Pool: I will take Dallas in at least one of my survivor pool entries this week. If you’re not taking Dallas this week in your survivor pool, make sure to plan ahead.
Bank it with Tank: Betting Breakdown on Bears-Cowboys
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 24-11
Props 2022: 23-13
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