Opening Spread: Vikings -3.5
Opening Game Total: 47.5
Opening Team Totals: Vikings (25.25) Giants (22)
The Line Report
- This line opened as Vikings -3.5.
- This line has moved to Vikings -4.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Vikings -3.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Vikings -4.
- This total opened at 47.5 points.
- This total remains at 47.5 points.
Vikings: Questionable: C Garrett Bradbury, LB Eric Kendricks, CB Cameron Dantzler Sr.
Giants: Out: CB Adoree’ Jackson; Questionable: RT Evan Neal, DT Dexter Lawrence, Edge Kayvon Thibodeaux
The Vikings Offense vs. Giants Defense
I have the Vikings tiered as a fringe top-ten offensive line. If the Giants continue to play up to their potential, they are a top-ten defensive front. This trench matchup is a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Vikings are 6-7-1 against the spread this season.
- The Vikings are 9-5 on overs this season.
- Kirk Cousins is 67-65-2 against the spread in his career.
- Kirk Cousins is 78-55-1 on overs in his career.
- Kevin O’Connell is 6-7-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Kevin O’Connell is 9-5 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Vikings are scoring 25.1 points per game, good for eighth in the league.
- Minnesota is fifth in the league in yards passing per game and 28th in yards rushing.
- The Vikings are passing on 67% of their plays and running on 33% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, Dalvin Cook is sixth in the league in yards rushing with 1,045 and 12th in rushing touchdowns with eight. Cook is 16th among running backs in yards receiving.
- Justin Jefferson leads the league in receptions (111), yards receiving (1,623), he’s tied for seventh in receiving touchdowns (7), sixth in target share (29.7%), and seventh in air yards share (40.5%).
- Adam Thielen has seven or more targets in ten of his 14 games this season. However, Thielen only has seven or more targets in two of his last five games.
- K.J. Osborn is coming off his best game of the year, where he went for 10-157-1 on 15 targets during the Vikings' historic come-from-behind victory against the Colts.
- T.J. Hockenson has six or more targets in each of his seven games as a Viking. Despite that outstanding usage, Hockenson has only breached 50 yards receiving twice during that span.
- Per TruMedia, Justin Jefferson has played 657 snaps on the perimeter and 208 in the slot.
- Adam Thielen has played 602 snaps on the perimeter and 236 in the slot.
- K.J. Osborn has played 257 snaps on the perimeter and 426 in the slot.
- The Giants have allowed 22.3 points per game, which is 14th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Giants have allowed the third-most yards rushing per game and the third-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- New York has given up the 17th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- New York has given up the eighth-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers.
- The Giants have allowed the 12th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Giants have allowed the sixth-most PPR points per game to inline tight ends.
The Giants Offense vs. Vikings Defense
The Giants have a below average offensive line. The Vikings have a fringe top-ten defensive front. Minnesota’s defense has a moderate, nearing a significant, trench advantage in this contest.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Giants are 10-4 against the spread this season.
- The Giants are 5-9 on overs this season.
- Daniel Jones is 29-22 against the spread in his career.
- Daniel Jones is 19-30-2 on overs in his career.
- Brian Daboll is 10-4 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Brian Daboll is 5-9 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Giants are scoring 20.5 points per game, which is 20th in the league.
- New York is 27th in the league in yards passing per game and sixth in yards rushing.
- The Giants are passing on 58% of their plays and running on 42% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, Daniel Jones is fifth among quarterbacks in yards rushing with 583.
- Saquon Barkley is fourth in the league in yards rushing with 1,170 and tied for eighth in rushing touchdowns with nine. Barkley is 13th among running backs in yards receiving.
- Darius Slayton has 58 yards receiving or more in six of his last eight games, but he’s fallen below that mark in each of his last two contests.
- Isaiah Hodgins has four or more targets in each of his last four games.
- Richie James has five or more targets in three of his last four games.
- Since returning from injury Daniel Bellinger has 12 total targets over his last three games.
- As you can see, the Giants’ passing attack is underwhelming.
- The Vikings have allowed 24.9 points per game, which is 28th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Vikings have allowed the 24th-most yards rushing per game and the seventh-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Minnesota has given up the second-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Minnesota has given up the fifth-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers and the second-most in the slot.
- The Vikings have allowed the 16th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting on in Vikings vs. Giants
Who are the Minnesota Vikings is a question with a wide range of opinions. We discussed this very subject on Betting the NFL this week, where my stance is the Vikings should be treated as a 10-7 or 11-6 team that wins a game in the Wild Card round and then loses in the divisional round. The Minnesota Vikings are a good football team with a good quarterback, with one of the best skill groups in the league, a quality offensive line, and a dangerous pass rush. The only real flaw the team has is that its secondary has been torched this season. This week the Vikings face one of the least-dangerous passing attacks in recent memory. Minnesota can beat the Giants in virtually every phase, while the Giants are ill-equipped to exploit the Vikings' one true weakness. That’s what you’re betting on if you’re taking the Vikings this week. Your biggest concern as a Vikings bettor is that Minnesota emptied the tank last week in their historic comeback, which results in them coming out flat against a Giants team that needs at least one more win to get into the playoffs.
The Giants have a below-average roster with limited ways to win games, but they do have a defensive front that can potentially dominate a game, as we saw last week in Washington. If you’re betting on the Giants, you need their front four to have a significant impact against a top-ten-level Vikings offensive line. If they don’t, Justin Jefferson and Minnesota’s high-end skill group could end up having a field day. Another path to a Giants' cover in this contest is if Kirk Cousins and the Vikings' offense simply come out flat after their emotional come-from-behind victory last week. I tend to bet against teams coming off an emotional game like the Vikings did last week, which makes this a game where I’m trying to get to a Giants bet. I have limited confidence in Daniel Jones’ ability to shred any defense, but this is as good of a matchup as he’s going to get to show some ceiling as a passer. Your concerns as a Giants bettor are simple. The first is that the Vikings' pass rush has a significant impact in this contest and Daniel Jones continues to be the most conservative game manager in the league. The second is that the Vikings' offensive line effectively mitigates the Giants' pass rush, and Kirk Cousins shreds the Giants' injury-reduced secondary.
Awards Market Ramifications: Brian Daboll and Kevin O’Connell are more or less in a loser leaves town match as far as the Coach of the Year race is concerned. Justin Jefferson is an Offensive Player of the Year contender.
Winner/Confidence Pool: Three weeks ago I would have taken the Vikings across the board in winner pools. After their emotional comeback against the Colts last week, I’ll still be Vikings-heavy, but I’ll have some Giants exposure. I expect to be a little lower than consensus on this game in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I want to bet against the Vikings coming off a highly emotional game last week, but I am struggling to get there from a pure football standpoint.
Survivor Pool: Same with winner pools. I liked the Vikings as a survivor pool option much more a few weeks ago than I do now.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 46-24
Props 2022: 51-31