Opening Spread: Ravens -7
Opening Game Total: 39.5
Opening Team Totals: Ravens (23.25) Falcons (16.25)
Weather: Outdoors, potential for below freezing temperatures
The Line Report
- This line opened as Ravens -7.
- This line has moved to Ravens -7.5.
- This total opened at 39.5 points.
- This total has moved to 37.5 points.
Ravens: Questionable: QB Lamar Jackson, QB Tyler Huntley, DL Calais Campbell, CB Marcus Peters
The Ravens Offense vs. Falcons Defense
I have the Ravens tiered as a top-ten offensive line. I have the Falcons' defensive front tiered as a bottom-tier group. Baltimore’s offensive line has a major advantage in the trenches in this matchup.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Ravens are 6-8 against the spread this season.
- The Ravens are 4-10 on overs this season.
- Lamar Jackson is 32-28-1 against the spread in his career.
- Lamar Jackson is 29-32 on overs in his career.
- John Harbaugh is 119-110-9 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- John Harbaugh is 114-123-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Ravens are scoring 21.7 points per game, which is 16th in the league.
- Baltimore is 29th in the league in yards passing per game and second in yards rushing.
- The Ravens are passing on 55% of their plays and running on 45% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, Lamar Jackson is 18th in the league in yards rushing with 764.
- If Jackson ends up missing this contest, Tyler Huntley’s Ravens were held to three points in Cleveland last week.
- J.K. Dobbins has breached 100 yards rushing in each of his last two games since returning from injury. Dobbins leads Gus Edwards 28-to-20 in running backs carries over that span.
- Demarcus Robinson has at least six targets in four of his last five games. Robinson has less than 50 yards receiving in four of those contests, while breaching 100 yards once.
- DeSean Jackson has not exceeded three targets in any of his five games.
- The Ravens claimed Sammy Watkins this week.
- Among tight ends Mark Andrews is first in target share (27.2%) and air yards share (34.6%). That said, Andrews has been held below 60 yards receiving in five of his last six games.
- Per TruMedia, Demarcus Robinson has played 480 snaps on the perimeter and 25 in the slot.
- Mark Andrews has played 152 snaps as an in-line tight end, 138 on the perimeter, and 361 in the slot.
- The Falcons have allowed 23.8 points per game, which is 22nd in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Falcons have allowed the 11th-most yards rushing per game and the 19th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Atlanta has given up the sixth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Atlanta has given up the eighth-most PPR points per game to slot receivers.
- The Falcons have allowed the sixth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Falcons have allowed the eighth-most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot.
The Falcons Offense vs. Ravens Defense
I have the Falcons' offensive line tiered as a fringe top-ten unit. I have the Ravens' defensive front tiered as a league-average unit. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Falcons are 8-6 against the spread this season.
- The Falcons are 7-7 on overs this season.
- Desmond Ridder is 1-0 against the spread in his career.
- Desmond Ridder is 0-1 on overs in his career.
- Arthur Smith is 13-16-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Arthur Smith is 14-16 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Falcons are scoring 21.9 points per game, which is 15th in the league.
- Atlanta is 31st in the league in yards passing per game and third in yards rushing.
- The Falcons are passing on 49% of their plays and running on 51% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Desmond Ridder’s NFL debut was very underwhelming, which is what I expected.
- Per the Edge, Tyler Allgeier breached 100 yards rushing last week. Over the last four games Allgeier has 46 carries while Cordarrelle Patterson also has 46.
- Drake London turned 11 targets into 7 receptions for 70 yards receiving last week.
- To frame that another way, Drake London accounted for 70 of Desmond Ridder’s 97 yards passing last week.
- Per TruMedia, Drake London has played 573 snaps on the perimeter and 80 in the slot.
- The Ravens have allowed 18.8 points per game, which is fourth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Ravens have allowed the third-most yards rushing per game and the tenth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Baltimore has given up the fourth-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Baltimore has given up the ninth-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers.
- The Ravens have allowed the 22nd-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting on in Ravens vs. Falcons
I’ll be keeping my eyes peeled for Mark Andrews props, and I’ll be overweight on him in DFS this week.
It goes without saying that Lamar Jackson’s status will have a huge impact on how this game plays. If Jackson is in, Baltimore has the raw materials to blow the doors off the Falcons. If Tyler Huntley is the starter Baltimore can still win and cover in this spot, but that outcome will be more reliant on its defense. A Ravens bet should be built on their ascending defense against Desmond Ridder in his second NFL start. Baltimore has given up 14 or fewer points in five of their last six games. Those performances came against below-average offenses, but that’s what the Falcons are themselves. A Tyler Huntley-led team can get to a 20-10 type of outcome. If Jackson plays, there are a number of paths to Baltimore winning by a touchdown or more. Your primary concern as a Ravens bettor is that their offense continues to underperform against a below-average Falcons’ defense. Another positive factor for Baltimore is that it will be getting a dome team in a late December game with cold temperatures.
I’m not a Desmond Ridder guy, so his rather dreadful NFL debut last week came as no surprise. On top of potentially disastrous quarterback play, running the ball is the strength of the Falcons' offense, and the Ravens are giving up the third-fewest rushing yards this season. If you’re betting on Atlanta, you are betting on an exceptional gameplan out of Arthur Smith, as the Falcons' offense has a number of uphill battles in this matchup. If Tyler Huntley plays, the Falcons have a reasonable path to holding the Ravens' offense at or below expectations. If Lamar Jackson is a full go, that’s a different story. Baltimore has multiple paths to dominating this game, which makes a bet on the Falcons more of a bet against the Ravens, who have dropped two of their last four.
Awards Market Ramifications: None
Winner/Confidence Pool: I will take the Ravens across the board in winner pools. If Lamar Jackson is active, I will be higher than consensus on this game in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I have no confidence in Atlanta, so I will take the Ravens' side or pass here.
Survivor Pool: If Lamar Jackson is active, the Ravens are a strong survivor pool option. If Jackson is ruled out, Baltimore is still playable in that format, but I’d have significantly less confidence in that play.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 46-24
Props 2022: 51-31