Philadelphia Eagles (12-1) at Chicago Bears (3-10)
Opening Spread: Bears +9.
Opening Game Total: 48.5.
Opening Team Totals: Bears (19.75) Eagles (28.75).
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns, but always check for significant wind in late season games in Chicago.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Bears +9.
- This line has moved to Bears +8.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Bears +8.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Bears +9.5.
- This total opened at 48.5 points.
- This total remains at 48.5 points.
Bears: Questionable: RB David Montgomery, WR Chase Claypool.
Eagles: Questionable: TE Dallas Goedert, LG Landon Dickerson, RT Lane Johnson, S Reed Blankenship.
The Bears Offense vs. Eagles Defense
I have the Bears offensive line ranked as a bottom tier unit. I have the Eagles defensive front tiered as a top-five unit. The Eagles’ defense has a massive advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Bears are 4-8-1 against the spread this season.
- The Bears are 9-4 on overs this season.
- Justin Fields is 7-14-1 against the spread in his career.
- Justin Fields is 11-11 on overs in his career.
- Matt Eberflus is 4-8-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Matt Eberflus is 9-4 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Bears are scoring 20.8 points per game, which is 19th in the league.
- Chicago is 32nd in the league in yards passing per game and first in yards rushing.
- The Bears are passing on 50% of their plays and running on 50% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, Justin Fields is eighth in the league in yards rushing with 905.
- David Montgomery is 25th in the league in yards rushing with 641. Montgomery is still behind teammate Khalil Herbert in yards rushing, even though Herbert hasn’t played since November 13.
- In his five games since joining the Bears, Chase Claypool has five-to-six targets in three of those contests. Claypool has only breached 50 yards passing once during that span.
- With Darnell Mooney sidelined and the Bears coming off their bye, Claypool is the clear top option in the Bears passing attack. Unfortunately, he draws a pretty brutal matchup against the Eagles.
- Equanimeous St. Brown is coming off his best output of the season, catching three-of-four targets for 85 yards receiving against the Packers.
- Cole Kmet has six or more targets in four of his last five games.
- Consider Chase Claypool and Cole Kmet as the top two options in the Bears passing attack with Darnell Mooney sidelined.
- The Eagles have allowed 19.1 points per game, which is seventh in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Eagles have allowed the 17th-most yards rushing per game and the 21st-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Philadelphia has given up the fifth-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Eagles have allowed the 25th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Eagles Offense vs. Bears Defense
The Eagles have a top-five offensive line. I have the Bears defensive front ranked as a bottom tier unit. The Eagles offensive line has a massive advantage in this contest.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Eagles are 8-5 against the spread this season.
- The Eagles are 9-4 on overs this season.
- Jalen Hurts is 17-14-1 against the spread in his career.
- Jalen Hurts is 20-12 on overs in his career.
- Nick Sirianni is 16-13-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Nick Sirianni is 19-11 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Eagles are scoring 29.7 points per game, which is the most in the league.
- Philadelphia is 13th in the league in yards passing per game and second in yards rushing.
- The Eagles are passing on 55% of their plays and running on 45% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, Jalen Hurts is third among quarterbacks in yards rushing with 686 yards and he’s the leader in rushing touchdowns with ten.
- Miles Sanders is fifth in the league with 1068 yards rushing. Sanders is tied for third in the league with 11 rushing touchdowns.
- A.J. Brown is 17th in the league in receptions (65), sixth in yards receiving (1020), tied for third in receiving touchdowns (10), 12th in target share (27.5%), and 13th in air yards share (37.3%).
- DeVonta Smith has 66 receptions for 775 yards receiving and five touchdowns. Smith has a 25.6% target share with a 30% air yards share.
- Dallas Goedert could return to action this week. Goedert has a 20.5% target share and a 13.5% air yards share. Goedert was among the league leaders in yards after the catch before he missed time.
- The Bears have allowed 25.6 points per game, which is 30th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Bears have allowed the sixth-most yards rushing per game and the 15th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Chicago has given up the 24th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Bears have allowed the 28th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Bears vs. Eagles
If you are betting on the Bears, you are betting on Justin Fields to have a herculean game against one of the league’s most talented defenses. On top of that, you need the Eagles supremely talented offense to underwhelm against a defense that has given up 27 or more points in each of their last six games. Your biggest concerns as a Bears bettor are that the Eagles have a massive advantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball, a top-ten secondary that could consistently force tight windows against the Bears below average group of pass catchers, and a group of dynamic pass catchers that could dismantle the Bears injury ravaged and trade reduced defense. You’re getting nine points at home as a Bears bettor, and Justin Fields is a scary back door cover quarterback, but there are all sorts of paths to the Eagles blowing the doors off the Bears.
The Eagles can dominate the Bears in virtually every aspect of this game. The Eagles’ offensive line has a massive advantage in the trenches, which means that Philadelphia could conceivably dictate this game on the ground. The Eagles have one of the best wide receiver duos in the league and Dallas Goedert could return in some capacity this week. The Bears will struggle to generate pressure, while their injury-reduced secondary will have to exceed expectations to manage Philadelphia’s dynamic pass catchers. On the other side of the ball, the Eagles defensive front has a massive trench advantage in this contest. Fields is one of the few quarterbacks in the league with enough athleticism to mitigate that disadvantage some, but this alone puts the Bears offense in a terrible position. On top of that, the Eagles have a top-ten secondary, and Chicago will be without their best pass catcher in Darnell Mooney. Philadelphia could conceivably dominate this game in every aspect. Your primary concern as an Eagles bettor is that they come out flat in this contest with their game against Dallas on deck next week. If Jalen Hurts misses a few throws that end a few drives early, while the defense misses a few assignments that turn punts into points for Chicago, that’s the most likely recipe for a Bears cover.
Awards Market Ramifications: Jalen Hurts is the current MVP favorite. Nick Sirianni is the current Coach of the Year favorite.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m taking the Eagles across the board in winner pools, and I expect to be aligned with consensus on this game in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I’m taking the Eagles or passing, but Philadelphia is definitely in my pool of options.
Survivor Pool: The Chiefs are the best survivor pool option this week, but the Eagles are a close second.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 43-22
Props 2022: 43-29