Indianapolis Colts (4-8-1) at Minnesota Vikings (10-3)
Opening Spread: Vikings -4
Opening Game Total: 47.5
Opening Team Totals: Vikings (25.75) Colts (21.75)
The Line Report
- This line opened as Vikings -4.
- This line has moved to Vikings -4.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Vikings -4.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Vikings -3.5.
- This total opened at 47.5 points.
- This total has moved to 48.5 points.
Vikings: Questionable: C Garrett Bradbury, DT Harrison Philips, Edge Danielle Hunter, LB Jordan Hicks, CB Cameron Dantzler Sr.
Colts: Questionable: CB Kenny Moore II
The Vikings Offense vs. Colts Defense
I have the Vikings as a fringe top-10 offensive line. The Colts' defensive front underachieved for most of the season, but it has been improving since Jeff Saturday took over as head coach. I have the Colts' defensive front as a league average unit currently. I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw from a macro sense.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Vikings are 6-6-1 against the spread this season.
- The Vikings are 8-5 on overs this season.
- Kirk Cousins is 67-64-2 against the spread in his career.
- Kirk Cousins is 77-55-1 on overs in his career.
- Kevin O’Connell is 6-6-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Kevin O’Connell is 8-5 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Vikings are scoring 24 points per game, good for 10th in the league.
- Minnesota is seventh in the league in yards passing per game and 27th in yards rushing.
- The Vikings are passing on 66% of their plays and running on 34% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, Dalvin Cook is sixth in the league in yards rushing with 950. Cook has five or more targets in four of his last seven games, but just once in his last four.
- Justin Jefferson is second in the league in receptions (99), first in yards receiving (1500), tied for 11th in receiving touchdowns (6), fourth in target share (29.6%), and sixth in air yards share (42.6%).
- Adam Thielen has a 19.6% target share and a 26.6% air yards share.
- K.J. Osborn has a 12.2% target share and a 13% air yards share.
- T.J. Hockenson has at least six targets in all six of his games as a Viking. Hockenson has 48 total targets over that span.
- The Colts have allowed 22.9 points per game, which is 18th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Colts have allowed the 12th-most yards rushing per game and the 11th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Indianapolis has given up the fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Colts have allowed the 18th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Colts have allowed the ninth-most PPR points per game to in-line tight ends.
The Colts Offense vs. Vikings Defense
Much like their defensive front, the Colts' underachieving offensive line has been improving since Jeff Saturday took over as head coach. I now have them in the average to below average tier. I have the Vikings' defensive front as a fringe top-10 unit. From a macro sense Minnesota has a mild advantage in the trenches, though their edge duo could be a real problem for the Colts.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Colts are 5-8 against the spread this season.
- The Colts are 4-9 on overs this season.
- Matt Ryan is 113-116-4 against the spread in his career.
- Matt Ryan is 105-125-3 on overs in his career.
- Jeff Saturday is 2-2 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Jeff Saturday is 3-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Colts are scoring 16.1 points per game, which is 31st in the league.
- Indianapolis is 14th in the league in yards passing per game and 26th in yards rushing.
- The Colts are passing on 65% of their plays and running on 35% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, Jonathan Taylor is 10th in the league in yards rushing with 861. In the four games since Jeff Saturday took over as head coach, Taylor has at least 20 carries in all of them and four targets in three of those four contests.
- Michael Pittman has a 24.9% target share and a 26.8% air yards share. Pittman hasn’t breached 100 yards receiving in a game since Week 6.
- Parris Campbell has a 14.8% target share and a 15.1% air yards share. Campbell hasn’t reached 10 PPR points in either of his last two games.
- Alec Pierce has a 14% target share and a 29.3% air yards share. After an underwhelming November, Pierce popped off for 86 yards receiving and a score on four receptions against the Cowboys last week.
- Since Saturday took over, Mo Alie-Cox leads Colts tight ends in snaps, Kylen Granson has a slight edge in routes ran, and Jelani Woods leads the group with a 19.4% target share over that span. Right now, three Colts tight ends see notable playing time.
- Per TruMedia, Michael Pittman has played 594 snaps on the perimeter and 168 in the slot.
- Parris Campbell has played 159 snaps on the perimeter and 547 in the slot.
- Alec Pierce has played 484 snaps on the perimeter and 23 in the slot.
- The Vikings have allowed 24.1 points per game, which is 24th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Vikings have allowed the 25th-most yards rushing per game and the fifth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Minnesota has given up the most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Minnesota has given up the third-most PPR points per game to perimeter receivers and the second-most to those in the slot.
- The Vikings have allowed the 17th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This Is What You’re Betting on in Vikings vs. Colts
The Vikings are in a correction spot after losing to the surging Lions last week in Detroit. Minnesota has scored 27 or more points in seven of their 10 wins this season. If you’re betting on the Vikings, you are building that bet around this offense at least meeting that expectation (which is a little higher than their 25.75 team total). The reason for that is Minnesota’s defense has given up 20 or more points in six of its last seven games since its Week 7 bye. The Commanders mark the last opponent that the Vikings have held below 20 points. In terms of offensive capabilities, I have the Commanders and Colts tiered similarly. There’s a chance that the Vikings' defense plays its best game since that contest with Washington, but I don’t want to directly bet on that outcome. I’d rather bet on Minnesota’s talented offense. The worst-case scenario for Vikings bettors is that their pass rush doesn’t have enough of an impact, and Matt Ryan exceeds expectations against a Vikings' secondary that has really struggled this season. If you pair that outcome with an average or worse showing from Kirk Cousins, that’s how the Colts keep this game tight.
The Colts won Jeff Saturday’s NFL coaching debut but have dropped their next three games. If you’re betting on the Colts, you are betting on a four-win team that is playing for little more than pride through the rest of the season. Saturday’s Colts have consistently leaned on Jonathan Taylor. Your expectation as a Colts bettor is that Indianapolis continues to lean on Taylor while Matt Ryan has an efficient game against the Vikings' very beatable secondary. The Colts’ defense has given up 24 or fewer points in three of the four games since Saturday took over. If you’re betting on the Colts, holding the Vikings to 24 or fewer points is your general expectation. Indianapolis is coming off their bye, so they will be fresher and more prepared than normal. That’s an extra positive for Colts bettors. Your biggest concern as a Colts bettor is that the Vikings’ defensive front has a major impact in this contest against statuesque Matt Ryan. If that type of outcome leads to multiple turnovers and a number of drive-stopping sacks, Colts bettors will need the bad version of Cousins to have a shot here.
Awards Market Ramifications: Justin Jefferson is an Offensive Player of the Year candidate. Kevin O’Connell is a fading Coach of the Year contender.
Winner/Confidence Pool: I’m going to take the Vikings in my winner pools, and I expect to be in line with consensus on this game in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I don’t intend to bet this game directly, but if I do it will be on the Vikings' side in a correction spot.
Survivor Pool: I am debating the Vikings in one of my survivor pool entries where I don’t have Kansas City or Philadelphia left.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 43-22
Props 2022: 43-29
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