NFL Analysis
3/3/25
7 min read
2025 NFL Franchise Tag Deadline: Final Verdict Predictions For This Year's Class
NFL free agency begins this week, and all attention has shifted from the 2025 NFL Draft to the veterans who will soon cash in with multi-year deals. This is where the race to Super Bowl 60 begins. The deals made and those that fall apart will shape how the league plays out for the next few years.
Some of the biggest stars of this free-agent period won't see the unrestricted market because of the franchise tag. With the deadline for the franchise tag looming on March 4 at 4 p.m. ET, we're predicting which of the top free agents will be available for the open market. We know the answer already for a few big names, but not everyone.
Sam Darnold will not receive the franchise tag, while Tee Higgins and Trey Smith will.
We'll argue for and against each franchise tag decision that has been made or is yet to be made. Which stars of today will cash in with a huge franchise tag guarantee, and which will field multi-year offers in a few days?
Ronnie Stanley, OT, Baltimore Ravens 
Prediction: Not tagged
The Baltimore Ravens have used the franchise tag for two straight years, but 31-year-old Ronnie Stanley would be a stunning candidate for the $25 million tag. Stanley is coming off a terrific season where his production will demand the Ravens reward him with a salary close to his 2024 mark of $17 million or higher, but Baltimore can avoid the cap issues that come with a massive one-year deal.
A lifetime Raven, Stanley will surely be incentivized to return to Baltimore and compete for a Super Bowl with a fat new multi-year deal. Stanley picked a good time to log a new career-high in snaps, breaking the 1,000-snap total for the first time since 2019. His lack of durability throughout four of the last five years, plus his age, will bake in a reduced guarantee that Baltimore can smooth out over several years.
Stanley would likely get a solid incentive-based deal on the open market from contenders like Tyron Smith did in 2024, but the tag isn't necessary.
Sam Darnold, QB, Minnesota Vikings
Decision: Not Tagged
The Minnesota Vikings have already decided against tagging Sam Darnold, and it's the right decision. While the lure of pulling off a Madden-esque move where the Vikings tag-and-trade the breakout quarterback, the mechanics of such a deal are incredibly rare. Teams know Minnesota may prefer to move Darnold and avoid paying $40 million for 2025.
Minnesota has to upgrade its woeful defensive talent this offseason to make its regular-season efforts more threatening in the playoffs. With $63 million in cap room before signing Darnold, the Vikings have the ability to add two impact players or several new starters. Their job would be increasingly difficult if Darnold were retained.
Darnold's disastrous end of the 2024 season made this an easier call for Minnesota. Growing pains are expected for 2024 first-round pick J.J. McCarthy, but banking on Darnold repeating his breakout isn't worth the sacrifices the team would have to make elsewhere.
Alaric Jackson, OT, Los Angeles Rams
Prediction: Tagged
Matthew Stafford's new contract may not significantly change the $49 million cap hit he was scheduled to get, but details of his restructured contract may create a little more room for the Rams to operate this offseason. Either way, knowing Stafford will be back gives the franchise more reason to hunt free agents and aggressively retain their best stars. They now have more reason and leverage to bring Alaric Jackson back.
Jackson is a good left tackle, but the recipe is there for him to score a massive contract on the open market. Turning 27 this summer after turning in a career-best campaign as a run and pass blocker, Jackson will almost surely be overpaid. Too many teams need tackle help, and he's the best option.
The Rams would benefit from ironing out a long-term deal ahead of time, but tagging him now at least ensures he won't bolt elsewhere. With the cap spiking upwards again, Jackson may have otherwise been an unlikely candidate to make $25 million a year, but that could be the going rate for a blindside protector in his prime.
Jevon Holland, SAF, Miami Dolphins
Prediction: Not tagged
One of the easiest no-tag calls on this list is Jevon Holland. Miami is in salary cap purgatory after they built a top-heavy roster that lacks flexibility and movable money. Holland is a very good safety and only 25 years old, but the position itself has been devalued as much as running backs. Miami should look to the draft or free agency to replace Holland for a lower price.
The argument for tagging Holland also extends to on-field reasons. Miami's defense struggled to maximize Holland in 2024 due to a scheme change and personnel limitations. His missed tackle rate ballooned from 7.8 percent to 17.1 percent, and his performance in man coverage was a career-worst mark.
Suitors in free agency hope to get either the 2021 or 2023 version of Holland and not the 2022 or 2024 version. Miami can't afford to pay someone who is inconsistent with what it'd take to bring back on the tag.
Tee Higgins, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Decision: Tagged
Tee Higgins will get the franchise tag if the Cincinnati Bengals can't hammer out a long-term deal, breaking the hearts of potential suitors across the league. Cincinnati's not a surprise to retain as much talent as it can while it's in a win-now mode with Joe Burrow at quarterback. We'll see how things play out with Trey Hendrickson, who needs a new deal.
Only 26, Higgins is already staring at a second franchise tag. This time, he'd get about $26.2 million fully guaranteed. As frustrating as Higgins' lack of durability has proven, Burrow wants Higgins back, and his game is unique compared to what can usually be found in the draft or free agency.
Trey Smith, OG, Kansas City Chiefs
Decision: Tagged (Already placed non-exclusive tag on Feb. 28, 2025)
One of the top storylines in free agency was whether Trey Smith would hit the market and where he could go if he did. Kansas City saw three of its All-Pro offensive line shredded by the Eagles in the Super Bowl and decided against getting worse. Ideally, the Chiefs will move Joe Thuney back from left tackle to guard in 2025.
Smith's advanced pass-blocking snaps don't do justice to how well he's played over the years. A powerful and menacing presence, Smith's franchise tag decision will be costly. The Chiefs will have to rework its salary cap sheet since they have about $1 million in room entering the spring.
Zack Baun, LB, Philadelphia Eagles
Prediction: Not tagged
Howie Roseman pulled off one of the best value signings in free agency history with Zack Baun. Baun was decent with New Orleans before coming to Philadelphia on a one-year, $3.5 million deal, but he's now in line to become the highest-paid off-ball linebacker in the NFL. That happens after producing 151 tackles, 3.5 sacks, five forced fumbles, and providing excellent support on all three downs.
However, Philadelphia already has to replace Josh Sweat, Mekhi Becton, and Milton Williams. Bringing Baun back on a long-term deal might be possible, but the franchise tag is out of the question.
