Betting
10/7/22
6 min read
Matchups Week 5: Rams vs. Cowboys
Los Angeles Rams (2-2) vs. Dallas Cowboys (3-1)
Opening Spread: Rams -4.5.
Opening Game Total: 45.5.
Team Totals: Rams (25), Cowboys (20.5)
Weather: Hybrid stadium where there are no weather concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Rams -4.5.
- This line has moved to Rams -5.5 as of Friday evening.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Rams -4.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Rams -5.
- This total opened at 45.5 points.
- This total has moved all the way down to 42.5 points as of Friday evening.
Notable Injuries
Rams: IR: WR Van Jefferson. Out: C Brian Allen, RG Coleman Shelton, S Jordan Fuller. Questionable: CB David Long, S Taylor Rapp.
Cowboys: Out: Dak Prescott. Doubtful: OL Jason Peters. Questionable: WR CeeDee Lamb, DT Quinton Bohanna, CB Jourdan Lewis.
Rams Offense vs. Cowboys Defense
The struggling Rams offensive line is down their center and right guard once again. The Cowboys pass rush has a major advantage in this contest.
Betting Notes
- The Rams are 1-3 against the spread this season.
- The Rams are 1-3 on overs this season.
Rams Offense
- The Rams are scoring 17.5 points per game, which is 29th in the league.
- Los Angeles is 16th in the league in yards passing per game and 30th in yards rushing.
- Per TruMedia, among running backs, Darrell Henderson is 39th in yards rushing (138) and Cam Akers is 44th (118).
- Cooper Kupp leads the league in targets (54), target share (36.2%), and receptions (42); he’s second in air yards share (43.6%) and receiving touchdowns (3), and he’s fifth in yards receiving (402). Kupp’s played 116 snaps on the perimeter and 127 in the slot.
- Allen Robinson has played 182 snaps on the perimeter and 53 in the slot. Robinson is tied for fourth in the league in end-zone targets with six.
- Tyler Higbee is 11th among all pass catchers in targets (38), and he’s ninth in receptions (26). Higbee has 244 yards receiving with a 25.5% target share and a 13.4% air yards share. Higbee has seen 161 snaps as an in-line tight end, 31 snaps in the slot, and 42 on the perimeter.
Cowboys Defense
- The Cowboys have allowed 15.5 points per game, which is third in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Cowboys have allowed the 11th-most yards rushing and the 15th-most yards receiving to running backs this year.
- Dallas has yielded the sixth-fewest yards receiving on the 20th-most receptions to wide receivers this season.
- Dallas has allowed the fourth-most PPR points to perimeter wide receivers this season.
- The Cowboys have allowed the fifth-fewest yards receiving on the 12th-most receptions to tight ends this year.
Cowboys Offense vs. Rams Defense
The Cowboys offensive line has provided much more stability than I would have expected over the last few weeks. They draw a top heavy Rams pass rush, who has their historic pass rusher in Aaron Donald and a solid one in EDGE Leonard Floyd. As a whole, the Rams' pass rush is a middle-of-the-pack unit where Donald has an individual matchup advantage against anyone he plays.
Betting Notes
- The Cowboys are 3-1 against the spread this season.
- The Cowboys are 1-3 on overs this season.
Cowboys Offense
- The Cowboys are scoring 17.8 points per game, which is 27th in the league.
- Dallas is 24th in the league in yards passing per game and 19th in yards rushing.
- Per TruMedia, among running backs Ezekiel Elliot is 19th in yards rushing (227) and Tony Pollard is 31st (162) with 71 yards receiving.
- CeeDee Lamb has a premium role with 42 targets, a 33.1% target share, and a 43.1% air yards share. Lamb has seen 137 snaps on the perimeter and 93 in the slot.
- Noah Brown has a 21.3% target share with 103 perimeter snaps and 95 in the slot.
- Michael Gallup has seen 33 snaps on the perimeter and just two in the slot.
- Dalton Schultz has already missed a game this year, but he had nine targets in Week 1.
Rams Defense
- The Rams have allowed 23.5 points per game, which is 18th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Rams have allowed the sixth-fewest yards rushing and the ninth-fewest yards receiving to running backs this year.
- Los Angeles has allowed the second-most yards receiving on the most receptions to wide receivers this year.
- The Rams have given up the most PPR points to perimeter wide receivers this year.
- The Rams have allowed the fewest yards receiving on the fewest receptions to tight ends this year.
This is What You’re Betting On in Rams vs. Cowboys
A bet on the Rams is a bet on a struggling offense with an injury depleted offensive line. Your biggest concern on a Rams bet is that the Cowboys' high-end pass rush derails this game. Your second biggest concern is that, outside of Cooper Kupp and tight end Tyler Higbee, virtually every other skill position player on the Rams has been a relative non-factor. The upside on a Rams bet is if the defending champs take an early lead, Cooper Rush will have to play from behind. Dallas couldn’t have really asked more out of Rush over the past three games, but this offense isn’t structured to come from behind in its current state. One appealing aspect of a Rams bet is you’re getting the defending champs - and head coach Sean McVay - coming off a losing effort in primetime.
A bet on the Cowboys is a bet on Cooper Rush’s offense continuing to play rock-solid football. In this instance, you need that against the defending champs coming off a primetime loss to the 49ers. The good news there is that the Cowboys roster has a lot of parallels with the 49ers. Most notably, both defenses have very high-performing fronts. If you’re betting on Dallas in this spot, you are betting on their pass rush looking a lot like the 49ers did last Monday night. Your biggest concern on a Cowboys bet is that if they fall behind by two scores, Cooper Rush’s offense is in trouble.
Awards Market Ramifications: Micah Parsons and Aaron Donald are Defensive Player of the Year Contenders. Cooper Kupp is an Offensive Player of the Year contender.
Winner/Confidence Pool: I’m going to treat this game like a coin flip in both formats. Therefore, I’ll have some exposure to both teams in winner pools, and I’ll be lower than consensus in confidence pools.
Spread Pool: I was surprised that this line was this high, as the strengths of the Cowboys' roster are similar to the 49ers, who just beat up the Rams last Monday night. I will take Dallas or pass here.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 14-6
Props 2022: 13-7
WATCH MORE: Matt Cassel Explains Dak's Injury
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