Betting
10/7/22
7 min read
Matchups Week 5: Falcons at Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons (2-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2)
Opening Spread: Buccaneers -8
Opening Game Total: 48
Opening Team Totals: Buccaneers (28), Falcons (20)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Buccaneers -8.
- This line moved up to Buccaneers -9.5 with a few Buccaneers -10s out there.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Buccaneers -9.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Buccaneers -8.5.
- This total opened at 48 points.
- This total has moved down slightly to 47.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Buccaneers: Questionable: WR Chris Godwin, WR Julio Jones, TE Cameron Brate, LT Donovan Smith, DL Akiem Hicks, CB Carlton Davis III.
Falcons: IR: RB Cordarrelle Patterson, LB Deion Jones; Out: TE Kyle Pitts.
The Buccaneers Offense vs. Falcons Defense
When LT Donovan Smith is active Tampa Bay has a fringe top-ten offensive line, with vulnerabilities at left guard and center. The Bucs have a macro edge in the trenches here against a below average Falcons’ front. That said, Falcons defensive tackle Gardy Jarrett has three-and-a-half sacks despite missing a game this season. He has an individual advantage against Tampa left guard Luke Goedeke and center Robert Hainsey.
Betting Notes
- The Buccaneers are 2-2 against the spread this season.
- The Buccaneers are 1-3 on overs this season.
Buccaneers Offense
- The Buccaneers are scoring 20.5 points per game, which is 16th in the league.
- Tampa is 11th in the league in yards passing per game and 31st in yards rushing.
- Per TruMedia, Leonard Fournette is 20th in the league in yards rushing (224) with a 12.5% target share.
- Rookie running back Rachaad White caught all five of his targets for 50 yards receiving last Sunday night against the Chiefs.
- Tampa Bay wide receivers have collectively missed a ton of time through the first four games, which makes their usage numbers less reliable than most teams.
- Mike Evans has missed a contest due to suspension, but he’s seen 103 snaps on the perimeter and 35 in the slot.
- Chris Godwin has seen 19 snaps on the perimeter and 48 in the slot.
- Russell Gage has seen 68 snaps on the perimeter and 82 in the slot.
- Julio Jones has seen 34 snaps on the perimeter and 16 in the slot.
- Cameron Brate has a 12.5% target share with 67 snaps as an in-line tight end, 59 in the slot, and 20 in the perimeter.
Falcons Defense
- The Falcons have allowed 25.3 points per game, which is 25th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Falcons have allowed the tenth-most yards rushing but the fifth-fewest yards receiving to running backs this season.
- Atlanta has allowed the ninth-most yards receiving on the fourth-most receptions to wide receivers this year.
- The Falcons have given up the tenth-most PPR points to perimeter and slot receivers this year.
- The Falcons have allowed the third-most yards receiving on the third-most receptions to tight ends this year.
- Atlanta has given up the sixth-most PPR points to in-line tight ends this season.
The Falcons Offense vs. Buccaneers Defense
Tampa Bay has a fringe top-ten front while Atlanta’s offensive line is a below average unit. The Buccaneers have a trench advantage in this contest.
Betting Notes
- The Falcons are 4-0 against the spread this season.
- The Falcons are 4-0 on overs this season.
Falcons Offense
- The Falcons are scoring 25.8 points per game, good for eighth in the league.
- Atlanta is 28th in the league in yards passing per game and fourth in yards rushing.
- Per TruMedia, Cordarrelle Patterson was fourth among running backs in yards rushing (340), while having a surprisingly low 7.4% target share.
- Rookie running backs Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley will take over this week with Patterson sidelined.
- Rookie wide receiver Drake London is second in the league in target share (34%) and 25th in air yards share (32.2%). London has played 165 snaps on the perimeter and 21 in the slot.
- Kyle Pitts has a 23.4% target share and a 33.4% air yards share. Pitts has played 68 snaps as an in-line tight end, 53 on the perimeter, and 54 in the slot.
- Pitts had a high-ceiling matchup here, but he was ruled out for this contest on Friday morning. He’ll be replaced by some combination of Parker Hesse and Anthony Firkser. That’s a monumental downgrade for Atlanta.
Buccaneers Defense
- The Buccaneers have allowed 17 points per game, which is fifth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Buccaneers have allowed the 18th-most yards rushing and the fewest yards receiving to running backs this year.
- Tampa has allowed the 18th-most yards receiving on the 14th-most receptions to wide receivers this season.
- The Bucs have given up the sixth-most yards receiving on the most receptions to tight ends this year.
- Tampa has allowed the third-most PPR points to tight ends lined up in the slot this season.
This Is What You’re Betting on in Buccaneers vs. Falcons
A bet on the Buccaneers is a bet on Tom Brady’s football operation in an obvious correction spot. Tampa is coming off back-to-back losses and they draw an overachieving Falcons team that will be down two of their three best skill position players this week. Tampa Bay has line play advantages on both sides of the ball and Chris Godwin returned to action last week. The Buccaneers' secondary and linebacker group is essentially facing Drake London and a band of replacement-level players at wide receiver and tight end. There is a very clear path to a decisive Buccaneers win against the Falcons in this spot.
A bet on the Falcons is a bet on an overachieving team maintaining its current level of play despite being down two of their three best skill position players. If you’re betting on the Falcons, you have multiple concerns. The first is that Tom Brady’s Bucs are coming off back-to-back losses. Tampa has line play advantages on both sides of the ball. The Buccaneers' secondary and linebacker group is very capable of shutting down an Atlanta offense that has one dynamic skill position player active in Drake London. You’re asking a lot out of Atlanta here if you’re betting on the Falcons. You either need their defense to have a great game where they create multiple turnovers, or you need Marcus Mariota to go out and go punch-for-punch with Brady despite being without Patterson and Pitts.
Awards Market Ramifications: Drake London is an Offensive Rookie of the Year contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’ll be taking the Buccaneers in my winner pools and I’ll have them ranked within the top two in confidence pools.
Spread Pool: I took the Bucs at -8 early in the week because I love betting on reliable teams in obvious correction spots. I love it even more when that comes against an overachieving opponent with a bottom-tier roster. Pitts joining Patterson on the sideline means that London is the only even semi-dynamic skill position player available for Atlanta. Barring a significant injury or weather development, I’ll be taking the Bucs at their new number in at least one of my ATS tournament entries.
Survivor Pool: I will play Tampa Bay in at least two of my active survivor pools this week.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 14-6
Props 2022: 13-7
WATCH MORE: Tom Brady, Bucs Will Still Win the South
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