Fantasy

10/30/22

22 min read

Josh Larky's Week 8 Fantasy Rankings

By Josh Larky

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Below you’ll find my Week 8 fantasy rankings for PPR/Half-PPR leagues. Included are my top-30 QB Rankings, top-45 RB Rankings, top-54 WR Rankings, and top-23 TE Rankings.

For each player, you can view their ranking, matchup, and implied team total, according to Vegas. For example, the Miami Dolphins and Detroit Lions have a Vegas game total of 51.5, with the Dolphins favored by 3.5 points (27.5 points implied for the Dolphins, 24 points implied for the Lions). Seeing the implied point totals can help you understand which games are projected to be the highest scoring.

xPPR (expected PPR points) is a new stat added in Week 4. Think of this as each player’s average expected fantasy points per game based on their underlying usage.

Teams coming off a Week 7 bye: Bills, Rams, Eagles, Vikings

Teams on Week 8 bye: Chiefs, Chargers

Detailed player write-ups will appear beneath each set of positional rankings to provide additional context.

Top-30 Quarterbacks

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• Josh Allen is averaging five fantasy points per game more than any other QB this season. Regardless of matchup, he is the QB1 every week.
• Kyler Murray didn't get it done for fantasy purposes last week against the Saints on Thursday night. However, the Cardinals defense surely won't score two defensive TDs in most weeks, so the game script was highly irregular. DeAndre Hopkins' return provided a nice jolt for the passing offense, as Week 7 was Kyler's first game of 2022 above 7.0 yards per pass attempt. The Vikings are allowing a league-high 8.4 yards per attempt to opposing passers, courtesy of our free and flagship tool, The Edge.

• Joe Burrow (24.3) is within half a fantasy point per game now of Jalen Hurts (24.6) and Patrick Mahomes (24.7), while moving slightly ahead of Lamar Jackson (23.6). The Cleveland Browns (Burrow's Week 8 victim) are holding hands with the Detroit Lions, as the only teams to rank bottom-6 in Football Outsiders' DVOA against both the run and the pass. Expect four or five offensive TDs from Cincinnati in this one.
• The Cardinals are allowing more than three explosive pass plays (at least 20 yards) per game this year. Kirk Cousins is coming off his bye, and I'm expecting Kirk Cousins to have his second 20+ point fantasy performance in Week 8.
• Tua Tagovailoa is facing the overall worst defense in football, the Detroit Lions. Tua leads the NFL with 8.6 yards per attempt, while the Lions allow 8.0 yards per attempt (second to only MIN). It's tough to see Tua not reaching 275+ passing yards in this contest.
• Jared Goff is coming off back-to-back performances of single digit fantasy points. However, he didn't have Amon-Ra St. Brown or D'Andre Swift for the entirety of either game. Both should return for Week 8 against MIA, who are bottom-6 in both yards per attempt allowed to opposing passers, as well as pressure rate generated (just 27.5% of plays). Advanced stats like pressure rate can be viewed using The Edge.

• Daniel Jones is averaging 49 rushing yards per game on the season. The Seahawks are a below average defense in every area of the field. Kyler Murray (Week 6) and Justin Herbert (Week 7) just had their highest single game rushing totals of the season against Seattle the past two weeks. Jones makes too much sense as a viable streamer for Week 8.
• Malik Willis will start in place of the injured Ryan Tannehill this week. The closest fantasy comp I could think of for Willis was rookie year Lamar Jackson. In Lamar's seven starts in 2018, he averaged 18.6 fantasy points, passing 22.6 times per game, while running a whopping 17 times per game. I don't expect Willis to be allowed quite the volume that Lamar was, but I think we'll see some outrageous rushing production, with minimal fantasy contributions through the passing game. A line of 140 passing yards, 70 rushing yards, and a rushing TD sounds about right for Willis, which would be nearly 20 fantasy points. His ranking at #12 is my way of both encouraging everyone to start him in 12-team leagues, while also acknowledging his massive range of outcomes, given that this is his first NFL start.
• Marcus Mariota has at least five rush attempts in every game this season, and 31 or more yards in four of seven games. The Panthers are openly tanking, and positive game script in a game ATL's favored should allow Mariota to continue running the ball down CAR's throat. Mariota doesn't have a high ceiling when he's only passing 15-20 times per game, but the floor is strong enough for him to be streamed this week.
• Trevor Lawrence is quietly averaging over 18 fantasy points per game. While DEN isn't a defense to target, Lawrence could be justifiably ranked in the Derek Carr/Daniel Jones range if you think DEN is actually about to phone it in this season and begin trading away their young talent.
• Justin Fields has at least 17 fantasy points in three straight weeks. While Dallas is a tough defense for fantasy, Fields is running early and often, with at least 47 yards on the ground in each of his past five games.
• Russell Wilson was a full participant in Friday's practice and is on track to suit up for Week 8's clash against JAX in London.

Top-45 Running Backs

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• The Seahawks allow the second most receiving yards to opposing backs, and the fourth most fantasy points per game. Saquon Barkely is the overall RB1 for Week 8 in my rankings, as he has a smash matchup and the highest expected fantasy points per game (based on usage) among all skill position players (19.6).
• The Texans are the only team allowing more than 29.5 PPR points per game to opposing backs (31.9), and Derrick Henry has at least 132 total yards in four straight games. Pay up for him in DFS this week, and expect an incredibly high ceiling and floor.
• In his two starts, Kenneth Walker is averaging 22 carries per game, while totaling at least five red zone carries in each contest. He has run more routes in both games than DeeJay Dallas. The Giants allow 5.7 yards per carry, second most in the NFL. Walker is primed for a big game in Week 8.
• Tony Pollard should get elite usage in this contest, as Ezekiel Elliott is likely to miss the game with a sprained knee. Pollard's lone start came in 2020, where he carried 12 times for 69 yards and 2 TDs, while catching six of nine passes for 63 yards. While I wouldn't expect him to top 30 fantasy points again in his second start, we know the role will be elite due to his pass game usage.
• I'm still unsure exactly what to expect in Christian McCaffrey's second game with SF. There is a disconnect in the fantasy community, where many assume the 49ers are an elite offense. The 49ers are 11th in yards per play, and 25th in percentage of drives ending in a score, courtesy of Football Reference. McCaffrey was targeted on two of his 11 routes in Week 7, and his targets per route run will need to increase significantly for him to display CAR-level pass-catching in his new home. CMC is a mid-range RB1 until I see signs of CAR-type usage.
• D'Andre Swift was a full practice participant on Wednesday, and is arguably the most efficient fantasy RB in the NFL. Miami allows the fifth most receiving yards to RBs, and the floor and ceiling are high for Swift in his Week 8 return.
• Raheem Mostert is a secret bell cow in an above average offense and now faces the Detroit Lions who allow 5.4 yards per carry.

Only 3 RBs have run at least 20 routes each of the past 4 weeks

Leonard Fournette
Joe Mixon
Raheem Mostert 🤯

Mostert is the sneakiest bell cow in fantasy football

— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) October 24, 2022

• Travis Etienne has at least 108 total yards in three straight games, and now James Robinson is a New York Jet. Etienne had 14 carries and five targets in Week 7, and I'd expect similar usage going forward.
• James Conner has been ruled OUT for Week 8. The Vikings are a mediocre defense, and the game total of this one is nearly 50 points. Expect a shootout with at least half a dozen combined TDs. Eno Benjamin is a strong bet to score and put up decent yardage, after back-to-back games with at least 17 combined targets/carries.
• Sam Ehlinger, a sixth round pick from the 2021 draft will be starting for Indy in Week 8. He's mobile and most likely an awful passer. This entire offense has minimal TD upside in Week 8, and WAS is one of the NFL's premier run defenses.
• Damien Harris returned in Week 7, but only handled three of 14 RB carries. Rhamondre not only carried 11 times, but he caught all eight targets for 59 yards in their loss to CHI. Harris likely expands his role in Week 8, but Rhamondre's stranglehold on the pass game - and maybe even the run game - is appealing for fantasy purposes.
• I've mentioned the Devin Singletary splits multiple times now, and the Bills are favored by more than ten points against Green Bay. This, at face value, does not have the makings of a ceiling game for Singletary.

• No BAL RB had topped 13 carries in a game heading into Week 7. Also, JK Dobbins was given just seven carries when he returned to game action fresh off the ACL tear. Gus Edwards may not be human, as he was fed 16 carries in his Week 7 return to action, scoring twice. Edwards has a tough matchup against Tampa on Thursday night, but I trust this Ravens offense to sustain drives and get in scoring position for Gus Bus.
• David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert were part of a new "hot hand" committee in Week 7. Montgomery still had the better usage, but the split was fairly close.

• Michael Carter joins the top-30 this week against a Patriots defense that just allowed over 230 rushing yards to the Bears on Monday Night Football. I’d expect James Robinson to eat into some early down work, but Carter should still see 10-15 carries and three to five targets out of the backfield in this contest.
• Brian Robinson has at least 17 carries in back-to-back games, with four red zone (one goal line) carry in each contest. He's a volume play who likely does the least with his opportunities. Antonio Gibson can be started in deeper leagues, as he should mix in lightly in the red zone, while receiving the majority of the pass game work. JD McKissic is the clear odd man out moving forward in this backfield.
• Darrell Henderson only handled 12 of 29 team carries in Week 6 prior to their bye. The coaching staff has never fully trusted him and the pass game upside is minimal. I'm counting on a slight workload improvement for him in Week 8, but may ultimately be too high on a glorified grinder back on a team with no offensive line in an incredibly tough matchup (SF).
• Tyler Allgeier has at least 15 carries in back-to-back games. After ceding the majority of the red zone work to Caleb Huntley, Allgeier was given all five red zone (three goal line) carries in Week 7. Allgeier is an okay start in Week 8 if you need some fantasy points in a pinch.

Top-54 Wide Receivers

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• Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd get a boost with Ja'Marr Chase sidelined the next four to six weeks (at least) with a hip injury. The CIN offense gets a downgrade overall, but I'm expecting a high 20s target share from Higgins, and a low 20s target share from Boyd in an above average pass attack - regarding both the volume and the efficiency.
• DeAndre Hopkins commanded 48% of the team's targets in his return from suspension, catching 10 of 14 targets for 103 yards. He faces a struggling Vikings secondary in Week 8, and is an elite option rest of season.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown has barely played in his past two games, but did command seven targets on just 20 routes. If we assume he runs a touch over 30 routes like his first three games, he'll be seeing double digit targets once again in their Week 8 game against MIA. He's a strong start who has already cleared concussion protocol. If a fellow league mate is anxious about his outlook rest of season, snag him in a trade.
• AJ Brown is facing a PIT defense that has allowed 30 (the most) pass plays of 20+ yards in 2022. Brown is going to give PIT's defense fits, and has at least 67 receiving yards in all but one game this season. DeVonta Smith is another strong start, who has at least 15 fantasy points in four of six contests.
• The Buccaneers' struggles have minimally affected Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Evans had 15 targets in their embarrassing Week 7 loss to CAR, while Godwin had 13. They are the Buccaneers' offense, and Russell Gage has already been ruled OUT of this contest.
• Chris Olave had a 30% target share from Andy Dalton in Week 7, catching seven of 14 for 106 yards. Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry both sat out of Wednesday's practice, setting up another massive week for the speedy rookie.
• Amari Cooper has double digit fantasy points in five of seven games, and 20+ fantasy points in three of seven. His 27.2% target share on the season is right below AJ Brown and slightly above Ja'Marr Chase, according to our free and flagship tool, The Edge.
• Gabe Davis hasn't topped six targets in any contest, but he does have at least 16 fantasy points in three of five games this season. He should be started every week due to his high target depth in the NFL's best offense.
• Adam Thielen enters the top-20 fresh off his bye week. He has at least seven targets in each of his past five games, and has nine red zone targets and three end zone targets in only six games this season. Finding the end zone will be likely against the Cardinals in Week 8, a game which has all the makings of going over its already high Vegas game total.
• Courtland Sutton gets a boost with Russell Wilson back for their London tilt against the Jaguars. However, I'm keeping Jerry Jeudy fairly high in the rankings, too. Jeudy has been linked to multiple teams in trade talks - particularly GB, and DEN may try to feature him more in anticipation of a trade.
• I'm hesitant to bump Tyler Lockett too far up the rankings with DK Metcalf not at 100%, as not only will Lockett now command more defensive attention, but the SEA offense should be worse overall. With Metcalf, I'm highly skeptical of his effectiveness given his knee injury, and would do my best to find another fantasy option this week.
• Brandon Aiyuk is in line for a usage spike in Week 8 with Deebo Samuel ruled OUT (hamstring). WR Jauan Jennings may also miss Week 8 with a hamstring injury. Aiyuk has back-to-back games with eleven targets and at least 82 receiving yards.
• With no Robbie Anderson in the fold, DJ Moore showed signs of life in Week 7, catching seven of ten targets for 69 yards and a TD. The Falcons allow 306 passing yards per game to opponents (no other defense is allowing more than 277), so Moore is in a prime matchup with no target competition, now that both CMC and Robbie Anderson are out of town.
• Michael Pittman is now outside the top-25 WRs for the first time this season. Sam Ehlinger will be making his first career start at QB, and last year’s sixth round pick is semi-mobile, and not known for his accuracy. Expect a rough passing day for Indy, and I wouldn’t start any receiver on this team not named Pittman in Week 8.
• Week 7 was a rough day all around for the Lions' offense, and Reynolds' eight yard performance was a contributor. He has eight or more targets in half his games this season, and at least 12.8 PPR points in four of six contests. He is a strong start against a beat-able MIA secondary with DJ Chark still on IR.
• Rashod Bateman has over 60 yards in just one of five games this season. All his contests have been between four to seven targets, and he's generally run a route on only 70% of Lamar's dropbacks. His ranking reflects a lack of WR depth this week, rather than confidence in Bateman. I'm expecting eight to 12 fantasy points against TB.
• Wan'Dale Robinson continues his rise up the rankings, as he commanded a team-high eight targets in Week 7, bringing in six for 50 yards. He has the makings of a PPR machine - think more consistent Rondale Moore, so if playing in a standard league, downgrade him significantly due to the average target depth of just three yards from Week 7.
• There is some hope for Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore now that Breece Hall is done for the year with an ACL tear. Zach Wilson has thrown for 231 total yards over the past two weeks, and NYJ may need to shift their game plan now that they no longer have a top-5 RB to hand off to. Corey Davis is nursing an injury, so this could be a heavily consolidated pass attack in their Week 8 matchup against New England.
• Robbie Anderson is the perfect Week 8 play if you're projected to lose your fantasy matchup and need a potential hail mary. The floor is zero, but the upside is a couple long catches and a TD. Anderson ran seven routes on Thursday and was targeted once, 42 yards down the field. He should be worked into a nearly every down role by the time ARI plays MIN, and their secondary has struggled mightily this season.

Top-23 Tight Ends

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• George Kittle is finding his stride, with back-to-back games of at least 40 routes run and nine targets. He’s scored nearly 40 fantasy points over the past two weeks, and has three end zone targets in this span.
• The Rams have not gotten healthier during their Week 7 bye, as they recently lost LT Joe Noteboom to an achilles tear. The already patchwork offensive line is truly in shambles, and SF's front should dominate this matchup. This is all good news for Tyler Higbee, who has become Matthew Stafford's security blanket when pressured. Higbee has an average target depth of just 3.7 yards this season, reaching nine targets in four of six games.
• DEN TE Greg Dulcich just commanded nine targets in his second game ever, and the athletic rookie should be started in all formats moving forward.
• Mike Gesicki has seven targets in back to back games, and faces a Lions secondary begging opponents to put up fantasy points against them. Gesicki also has back-to-back games with two red zone targets (three total end zone targets in that span), and at least 64 air yards in each contest. He's been frustrating for fantasy this year, but it's all starting to come together for him.
• Kyle Pitts would undoubtedly be the best receiving TE in the NFL if given Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews type volume, but with 17 or fewer routes run each of the past four games, I can no longer recommend him as a strong start.
• Dalton Schultz only ran a route on 57% of Dak Prescott dropbacks in Week 7, despite practicing in full all week. He did command five targets on those 16 routes, catching them all for 49 yards. He's a tough one to rank for Week 8, and I'm going to assume he runs fewer than 60% of the routes once again in Week 8 against CHI.
• I’d recommend scooping up Harrison Bryant off waivers. David Njoku will be out the next month with an ankle injury, and Bryant already has four games on the season with at least four targets, despite being in a backup role. He’s not the athlete that Njoku is, but should see volume moving forward in a TE-friendly offense.
• Cade Otton likely gets you five to six fantasy points against BAL, but I don't see the ceiling in a game where Julio Jones is returning. The offense should flow through the big-3 WRs, and Otton's route participation is shaky in Week 8, despite double digit fantasy points in two of his past three games.

These Week 8 fantasy rankings will be updated throughout the week. Make sure to check this post each day throughout the week as the news hits.

Watch More: Cam's Corner Week 7

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Josh Larky

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Josh Larky is the Director of Fantasy and Gambling at The 33rd Team.  He joins us with a unique blend of educational and professional experience.