Betting
10/31/22
4 min read
Josh Larky's Monday Night Football Player Props
Below, you'll find 11 Monday Night Football player props I've put my soft earned money on. For each line, I provide the sportsbook I used, along with my logical/statistical reasoning for taking the prop.
New this week, I'm including the implied odds along with the betting odds, to help make the math easier for folks. +490 may be less intuitive than a 17% implied chance of the line hitting. Essentially, if I take a prop at +490, I'm expecting it to hit more than 17% of the time in order to be profitable long-term.
Mike Thomas Anytime Touchdown [+490 (17%) on FanDuel Sportsbook]
- Thomas ran 46 routes in Week 1 when Tee Higgins was concussed early in that game
- He saw five total targets, with three coming in the end zone
- Thomas ran 28 routes in Week 5 when Tee Higgins hurt his ankle early in that game
- He saw three total targets, with one coming in the end zone
- This is my favorite play of the day, given the odds you can get on FanDuel
Jacoby Brissett OVER 30.5 Pass Attempts [-114 (53%) on FanDuel Sportsbook]
- Every QB has hit the over on this number against the Bengals, except for Marcus Mariota (no surprise there)
- Brissett has hit the over on this number in five of seven games this season
Joe Burrow OVER 33.5 Pass Attempts [-135 (57%) on DraftKings Sportsbook]
- Burrow has been over this number in six of seven games this season
- While Ja'Marr Chase is OUT this week, I don't expect much of a game plan shift since Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd is still an above average receiving duo
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Tee Higgins 100+ Receiving Yards [+194 (34%) on FanDuel Sportsbook]
- With Ja'Marr Chase OUT, Higgins should see at least nine targets in this contest
- Robbie Anderson (CAR), Garrett Wilson (NYJ), and Mike Williams (LAC) have all had 100 yard games against CLE this season
- The Steelers, Falcons, Patriots, and Ravens did not have a 100 yard receiver against CLE
- The Bengals will join the Chargers as the only above average passing offenses to face CLE this season
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Amari Cooper 60+ Receiving Yards [+128 (44%) on FanDuel Sportsbook], 70+ RecYds [+198 (34%)], 80+ RecYds [+290 (26%)], 90+ RecYds [+410 (20%)], 100+ RecYds [+630 (14%)]
- Cooper has 70+ receiving yards in four of seven (57%) games this season
- Cooper has 100+ receiving yards in two of seven (29%) games this season
- Cooper has a 26% target share on the season, with double digit targets in four of seven games this season
- Cooper has at least 84 air yards in five of seven games this season
Kareem Hunt Parlay: OVER 34.5 Rushing Yards + Anytime Touchdown [+450 (18%) on DraftKings Sportsbook]
- Hunt has been the topic of trade rumors, so he may get featured in this game
- Hunt hit the over on this rushing yards number each of the first five games of 2022
- He's been under this number the past two weeks, with very few touches, despite a consistent snap share
- Hunt is averaging over three combined red zone carries/targets per game
- I like this parlay as opposed to a 50/50 type of line for Hunt, given the role uncertainty in this contest
Harrison Bryant Anytime Touchdown [+320 (24%) on FanDuel Sportsbook]
- Bryant has at least four targets in four of seven games this year, despite always backing up David Njoku
- Bryant has a red zone target in three of seven games this season
- Njoku is OUT this week, and was averaging 1.1 red zone and 0.6 end zone targets per game
We hope you enjoyed reading through these 11 Monday Night Football player props. Be sure to always bet responsibly.
WATCH MORE: Former NFL running back Robert Smith breaks down how the Bengals have improved in recent weeks and what the Browns need to do to beat their in-state division rival.
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