NFL Analysis
9/24/24
6 min read
Jayden Daniels Is The Answer To Washington Commanders' QB Prayers
Jayden Daniels showed the rest of the NFL what he's capable of on Monday night.
The Washington Commanders pulled out the upset win against the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football, pulling out a 38-33 victory. Daniels was on fire, completing 21-of-23 passes for 254 yards and two touchdowns while adding 39 rushing yards and another touchdown with his legs.
Daniels' 91.3 percent completion percentage was the highest ever for a rookie quarterback, something he accomplished in the first primetime game of his career while on the road.
It's only been three weeks, but the Commanders are suddenly tied with the Philadelphia Eagles at the top of the NFC East with a 2-1 record. What was expected to be a ramp-up year for Daniels has quickly become a breakout campaign, making him the early favorite for the Offensive Rookie of the Year.
The Commanders are letting Daniels cook, and it's obvious when seeing how he operates the offense.
How Daniels Is Thriving In the NFL
There were a lot of questions about how the offense around Daniels would work during his rookie season. So far, it looks like things are going just fine.
Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury is facing a prove-it year as an NFL play-caller after struggling in his previous stint as head coach of the Arizona Cardinals. The offense looked a bit vanilla in the first two games, but Kingsbury leaned into Daniels' biggest strengths on Monday night.
As a Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback at LSU, Daniels succeeded by generating explosive plays with his legs and throwing the deep ball.
While not many of his runs have been designed with the Commanders, Daniels keeps the chains moving with his legs. He's tied for sixth in the NFL among all runners with 15 first downs generated on rushing attempts. At his current pace, Daniels could break double-digit rushing touchdowns with 1,000 yards on the ground, rushing for 171 yards and three touchdowns through three games.
That deep ball in 2023 was the turning point for Daniels as a pro prospect. He completed 63.6 percent of his attempts that went 20-plus yards through the air for 1,347 yards, 22 touchdowns, and zero interceptions for an NFL passer rating of 146.8.
Biggest improvement for #LSU QB Jayden Daniels this year has been his downfield accuracy. Currently leads the FBS in completions of 20+ yards (49).
— Jordan Reid (@Jordan_Reid) November 2, 2023
He has excellent touch. pic.twitter.com/OWZORkBBF5
Daniels had only attempted three deep passes heading into Monday night, but Kingsbury and the Commanders dialed up some deep shots against the Bengals.
According to TruMedia, Daniels attempted four passes of 20-plus yards downfield, completing two of them for 82 yards, including a game-sealing touchdown to Terry McLaurin while under duress.
Jayden Daniels' 27-yard touchdown to Terry McLaurin with 2:15 left in the game is even more preposterous on the All-22. The Bengals send a blitz, and Geno Stone comes through unblocked. Daniels knows he's going to get faced, and he makes the perfect throw regardless. pic.twitter.com/ZtIICkHUce
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) September 24, 2024
Even with the increased deep shots, Daniels still throws the ball remarkably efficiently. Not only does he lead the NFL with an 80.3 completion percentage, but he's also third in the league in completion percentage above expectation at 7.4 percent, behind only Brock Purdy and Jalen Hurts.
It's not like Daniels is dinking and dunking, either. The passing chart below shows 11 of his 23 pass attempts going at least 10 yards downfield.
After his first couple of games, it looked like Daniels would try to rely on his legs too frequently as a rookie. However, Monday night's performance showed that the rookie can be a lethal passer who is capable of efficiency without sacrificing his big-play ability.
Is This The End of Washington's Quarterback Drought?
The Commanders have been waiting for a franchise quarterback for years. Just ask Terry McLaurin, who has caught a pass from 11 different quarterbacks since being drafted back in 2019.
Robert Griffin III looked like that star QB that the franchise had been waiting for, but a torn ACL at the end of his rookie year derailed his career. He was the Offensive Rookie of the Year and a Pro Bowler in his first season, and Daniels is on a similar trajectory.
Kirk Cousins also looked like a franchise quarterback from the same draft class as RG3, making a Pro Bowl in 2016. However, the Commanders let him walk in free agency in 2018, leading to him becoming a star for the Minnesota Vikings.
Since letting Cousins walk, the Commanders have whiffed on quarterbacks. Dwayne Haskins never lived up to his first-round billing, and Sam Howell led the NFL in interceptions this past season after being given the keys to the franchise.
Outside of RG3, none of these other quarterbacks have brought the same kind of dual-threat and explosive playmaking ability as Daniels. His deep ball and rushing ability have allowed the Commanders to generate first downs to get points on the board. In fact, the Commanders have the fifth-highest-scoring offense in the NFL, averaging 26.3 points per game.
Daniels can finally give Washington a long-term answer at quarterback, provided they continue building a playoff-caliber team around him.
Who Else Could Win Rookie of the Year?
Even with a strong Week 3 performance, Daniels isn't out of the woods yet in the Offensive Rookie of the Year race.
FanDuel Sportsbook has Daniels as the favorite at +175 to win the OROY award. However, two of the top rookie wide receivers are right behind him, including his former LSU teammate Malik Nabers.
Nabers has a strong resume through three games despite playing on a New York Giants team that has struggled during the last few seasons. He has 23 catches for 271 yards and three touchdowns through three games and is already making NFL history.
Marvin Harrison Jr. is also in the running despite a one-catch performance in his NFL debut. He's caught nine passes for 194 yards and three touchdowns in his last two games, putting him right back into the Rookie of the Year conversation.
The rookie receivers are finding success, but Daniels might be the only quarterback from the 2024 draft class in the race. Daniels is far outpacing Bo Nix and Caleb Williams in EPA per play and CPOE:
Nix has zero passing touchdowns and has thrown four interceptions, while Williams has four interceptions of his own to go with a pair of passing touchdowns. Nix and Williams are at the bottom of the league in terms of passer rating, too
There's still time for someone else to emerge in the Rookie of the Year conversation, but as of right now, it's Daniels trying to hold off two emerging stars at receiver in Nabers and Harrison.
