This is the third installment of my rankings series, you can link to the first two below:
At this point in your draft, you have your core team established and you’re filling out your line-up or grabbing some depth for those crazy things that happen in the first few weeks. Don’t concern yourself with bye weeks (unless it’s a draft-master/best-ball format), you will be able to grab fresh-meat off the waiver wire.
101. Antonio Gibson, WAS, RB (***Actually moved up to #68 in the rankings, ahead of AJ Dillon, with Brian Robinson news that came after publishing the 51-100 rankings)
Considering he’s a 24-year-old, 228-pounder with 93rd percentile athleticism, I still find it difficult to let him slide past the eighth round, he still has the talent to break into that top-tier RB even if we think he has a cloudy touch/target share. Last year he finished 18th among RBs in half-PPR PPG, 11th in expected half-PPR PPG, played most of the season with a stress fracture in his shin.
Antonio Gibson & JD McKissic played 10 healthy games together in 2021
Gibson saw more than 3 targets just ONCE in those 10 games
WAS drafted bruising RB Brian Robinson in round 3, who's expected to see short-yardage work
Antonio Gibson is a 💀DEAD ZONE💀 back
❌Do not draft❌
— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) July 28, 2022
102. Dameon Pierce, RB, Hou (***Actually moved up to #88 in the rankings, ahead of Tony Pollard, after publishing the 51-100 rankings)
The 23-year-old, fourth-round rookie out of Florida seems to have a firm grip on the starting roll over Marlon Mack. Pierce is 5’10”, 218lb, 31.3 BMI, with a 21.7 dominator rating.
103. George Pickens, PIT, WR If you roll your eyes at the idea of players “having that DAWG in them” you need to search George Pickens on Youtube.
#Steelers rookie George Pickens intense in practice. After missing one route. He caught the next 4 including a couple of combat catches. He stared at Minkah and others who gave him grief & said ‘don’t say s$&:’ w serious face @937theFan
— Jeff Hathhorn (@jhathhorn) August 8, 2022
104. Treylon Burks, TEN, WR This will be a roller-coaster ride all season. He’s a “buy” in best-ball and dynasty, but you might be frustrated in a regular redraft where you’ll have to make line-up decisions weekly.
105. Tyler Boyd, CIN, WR Boyd was the WR31 last year in ppr scoring, he has immense upside if Higgins or Chase go down.
106. Russell Gage, TB, WR I had Gage pegged as a top-36 prior to news that Godwin is looking healthy and before Julio signed with Tampa. Now I feel like he will struggle to compete for targets. Gage and Antonio Brown look fairly similar on paper: 40 time= 4.56 vs 4.5, 10 yard split= 1.56 vs 1.54, 3-cone= 6.98 vs 7.03, weight= 186 vs 186. Brady also supported Brown, Godwin, Evans, Gronk easily last year.
107. Darrell Henderson, RB, LAR Are we ready for another Akers vs Hendo debate?
“I look at it as we’ve got two starting backs,” McVay said. “Those guys are great complements (to) one another, but I see them as both starting-caliber players. We need to get them involved. They need to be on the field. I think it’s healthy for them to be able to supplement one another.”
108. Kadarius Toney, NYG, WR Toney has an opportunity to be a full-time player in an offense without a defined No. 1 option. As a rookie, he registered 26% targets per route (limited sample) which means 130 targets are likely in an every-down role.
Tonight's draft stop is with the @TheNFFC & their Rotowire contest from the 12. Let me know how you think it turned out.
I can't tell. These are starting to blend into each other. Might need to take a day off from drafting tomorrow….Nah!!! LOL pic.twitter.com/okNghWrASn
— Glenn Lowy (@Glenneration_X) August 30, 2022
109. Rachaad White, TB, RB White is a rookie, third round pick, with an 81st-percentile 40-Yard dash (4.48), 84th-percentile Speed Score, 87th-percentile Burst Score, 87th-percentile College Dominator (over 100 rush yd and 456 rec yd, 16TD) and 98th-percentile College Target Share (19%). I expect White to get some of the work (maybe 20%) right from the start, and if Lenny goes down White should slide right in.
110. Chase Claypool PIT, WR It felt like Claypool would be the odd-man-out in this offense with Pittsburgh drafting George “The Rottweiler” Pickens, but the 6’4, 238lb, Claypool has been in slot for 13-of-16 preseason snaps. Roles in the Steelers offense appear set with Diontae Johnson and George Pickens on outside, Claypool in the big-slot role.
111. Cole Kmet, TE, CHI I expect Kmet to see over 100 targets in the Bears offense this season. He caught 60 of his 93 targets last year in a dysfunctional offense, I don’t expect much will improve on this team, but he’s still in line to improve on the zero TD’s last season. Kmet caught three passes for 36 yards with one touchdown in the Bears final preseason game against the Browns.
112. Kenneth Gainwell, RB, PHI As a rookie Gainwell had 6 TDs on 101 touches, was the 16th RB in target share (11.3%), 12th in yards per reception (7.7), and 6th in yards per route run (1.73). In 2019 he had 16 TDs on 282 touches for Memphis (opted out the following season) Exciting player in what should be a very good offense with an elite offensive line.
If Miles Sanders is saying don’t draft Miles Sanders in fantasy football, there is no choice but to move Kenny Gainwell and his 11% target share and 20 red zone touches from his rookie year up the ranks 📈 https://t.co/Y6HNOHZGoY
— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) June 30, 2022
113. Cordarrelle Patterson, ATL, RB He’s 31 years-old. I’ll fade RB’s over 30 every year.
114. Garrett Wilson, NYJ, WR 12 TDs and over 1,000 yards in ’21 at OSU. Open on 84% of his targets.
115. Jakobi Meyers, NE, WR Meyers saw more red-zone targets (21) than Deebo Samuel (17) last season.
Jakobi Meyers’ staying power is impressive.
Last year, the Patriots signed Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne. Their best receiver in training camp: Meyers
This year, they trade for DeVante Parker and draft Tyquan Thornton in Rd 2. Their best receiver in training camp: Meyers
— Zack Cox (@ZackCoxNESN) August 24, 2022
116. DJ Chark Jr., WR, Det Chark signed a one-year deal with the Lions in March, giving Detroit the type of size-speed combo they needed to add this offseason. “I think through OTAs, we were able to develop some pretty good chemistry and kind of again now, continue to develop it,” Goff said of Chark. “He’s a guy we’d like to push the ball down the field with and hit him up over the top.”
DJ Chark 🔥 pic.twitter.com/dbVeGNkAZu
— NFL Beat Writers (@32BeatWriters) August 5, 2022
- Rondale Moore, ARI, WR Kliff Kingsbury talking up the role Moore is going to have in the Cardinals offense. Moore had 64 targets as a rookie and 18 rushing attempts. He should inherit a substantial percentage of the Christian Kirk and Chase Edmonds vacated touches.
Kliff Kingsbury has been saying good things about Rondale Moore stepping into a much bigger role all offseason pic.twitter.com/D16Pql4AOJ
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) July 27, 2022
- Skyy Moore, KC, WR Moore led his team in receiving as a college freshman despite having no experience at WR in High School. He only played 2.5 years at small college, but still got round 2 draft capital. He seems to be a great separator and dangerous after the catch, plus he has Mahomes throwing him the ball.
I’ll just say this now. After watching two days of practice. The coaches film doesn’t do justice to what Skyy Moore does on a football field in person. The Dude is so fun to watch. The way he competes and attacks the ball. #Chiefs
— Nick Jacobs (@Jacobs71) July 26, 2022
- Joshua Palmer, WR, LAC Should be on the field for most three WR sets in a high powered offense.
Joshua Palmer. Power slot. pic.twitter.com/9lAUU1dMCH
— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) December 12, 2021
- Ken Walker III, SEA, RB He’s 5’9″, 211lb, 31.2 BMI 4.38 forty, 96th percentile speed score. This is likely a committee backfield, with questionable quarterbacks, they play NFC/AFC West and will trail heavily, not to mention the terrible O-line, and low-volume offense. Carroll had a glowing — even by his standards — assessment of Ken Walker III, saying he’s surprised at how well-rounded the rookie RB has become. Said he’s “turned the page” with his college pass-pro struggles. “He could play all three downs and we’d feel comfortable with it.”
- Dawson Knox, TE, BUF He was the TE5 in standard scoring, but the TE11 in ppr. His scoring was completely TD dependent, even when compared to other TE’s. When just looking at the TD rate we should expect regression, but Allen apparently really likes him as a end-zone target. Knox had fewer targets than all but one other TE within the top-20 in TE scoring (ppr), but he may not need the targets to score.
- Michael Carter, RB, NYJ I’ve been high on Carter all summer because his ADP is so low and he performed well when called upon last season. The problem is Breece Hall is better at everything compared to Carter and the bulk of Carter’s production also came when Zach Wilson was out. Carter benefits from a QB that will dump the ball down to his RB under pressure. Wilson is a tuck and run guy.
- Nyheim Hines, RB, IND With the addition of Matt Ryan there very-well could be more action in the passing game for the RB or slot positions. Hines could be a huge benefactor. “The Colts have had Hines practicing with the WRs quite a bit this offseason, even going as far as having him go through drills with the wide outs while the RBs are off doing other drills on the other end of the field.”
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, KC He’s locked in as a starter after signing a three-year deal worth up to $36 million. He should be viewed as the deep-threat plus, likely to be boom-bust, but worth rostering in all formats.
- Melvin Gordon III, DEN, RB 29 years old and a foot injury to start camp.
- Nico Collins, HOU, WR 6’4″”, 215lb, 90th percentile speed score, 93rd percentile Y/R in college. Collins is quietly having a terrific offseason. Has received high praise from Davis Mills. The Texans should have a clear consolidated target tree with Collins the best bet to be their WR2. Wide receivers going into their second season are generally good investments. Especially ones with good profiles and decent situations like his. “We need Nico to be that complement to Brandin, and he can. Big target, catch, go and jump. That can be a good combination.” head coach Lovie Smith said. Collins played for Texans new OC Pep Hamilton at Michigan in 2017 and 2018.
- Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG, WR The Giants are lining him up all over the formation, including the backfield. Certified gadget player with potential to have big-time fantasy value. They reached up in the draft to get him so they must have plans to utilize his many talents, but since the combine his only real concern has been his size… or lack thereof.
- Kenneth Gainwell, PHI, RB As a rookie he was 16th in target share (11.3%), 12th in yards per reception (7.7), and 6th in yards per route run (1.73), and had 6 TDs on 101 touches. In 2019 he had 16 TDs on 282 touches for Memphis (opted out the 2020 season). He’s an exciting player in a good offense with an elite OL.
- Khalil Herbert, CHI, RB Herbert could be the steal of your fantasy draft this year. GregCosell believes Herbert is a better zone runner than Montgomery. Herbert was fifth in CFB rushing yards in 2020, with a 7.7 YPC.
- Jahan Dotson, WAS, WR After numerous positive reports in training camp, the former Nittany Lion could be on his way to a strong rookie year.
- Alexander Mattison, MIN, RB There are lots of rumors that the Vikings are listening to offers for Mattison with the regular season approaching. Mattison is one of the best handcuff options, but the 24-year-old could become more attractive in fantasy if he’s traded to a team that gives him more touches in their backfield.
- Jarvis Landry, NO, WR Landry might be the best example of how rankings are different than how you should draft. Landry might be fine as a bye-week fill-in, but he’ll never win you a league. He’s easily replicable on waivers.
💵 @GOATdistrict Milly Billies 💵
3 Way with Theo and Dan Edition@TheNFFC Super Team 10
What say you fantasyland:
– Who won?
– Whomsts is the RAKE?
— ClutchLikeSchelly (@AMSchellenberg) September 1, 2022
- Michael Gallup, DAL, WR He won’t be ready for Week 1 against the Buccaneers, but he could be ready to roll shortly after that as long as he doesn’t suffer any setbacks in his recovery from a torn ACL in Week 17 of last season.
- Julio Jones, TB, WR Julio’s upside is this year’s AJ Green. If Matt Ryan didn’t lobby for him on the Colts, it’s likely that the only QB that would tolerate him is Brady, who might just qualify as a clinical social worker at this point. Julio will be 34 during the season and never liked to practice when he was in his prime, he’s not built for this anymore…. although he was ranked 25th in yards per route run last season. Julio Jones will turn 34 this year, but posted a WR2-worthy PFF receiving grade (74.9), a WR3-worthy YPRR (1.76) and a WR5-level TPRR (19%) in 2021.
- K.J. Osborn, MIN, WR Could be looking at 90+ targets as the WR3 in an offense with a new, pass-first coaching staff.
- Jamaal Williams, DET, RB Williams averaged 11.8 rush attempts and 2.2 targets per game last year.
- Pat Freiermuth, PIT, TE Was TE7 after week 6 last season (11.3 PPR points per game), and was 1st in RZ targets (20), but I’m not sure this is sustainable with Roethlisberger gone.
- David Njoku, CLE, TE Njoku has had his struggles, but we can all see the talent is there. Cleveland has signed him to a lucrative long-term deal. Last year he was fifth in yards per target (9), 4th in yards per catch (13.2), and 5th in contested catch rate.
- Irv Smith Jr., MIN, TE
— Darren Wolfson (@DWolfsonKSTP) August 31, 2022
- Tyler Allgeier, ATL, RB The reports were glowing and growing for Allgeier in camp, but they faded toward the end. He is currently third on the depth chart, he’s a fifth round pick, first in YAC, second in TDs last two years in FBS. Should be a good rusher to complement Patterson.
- Marvin Jones Jr., JAC, WR Jones had three receptions for 40 receiving yards on four targets in the last preseason game against the Steelers. The 32-year-old wideout hauled in 73 catches, 832 receiving yards, and four touchdowns last season in a dysfunctional system.
- James Robinson, JAC, RB Robinson is expected to be ready for Week 1 of the regular season, but the team won’t give him his normal workload when he first gets back. I’m sure he won’t be close to full speed to start the year, he may not be able to get back to full speed at all.
- Isiah Pacheco, KC, RB Seventh round pick, 5’10”, 216lbs, 4.37 forty for an elite weight-adjusted forty time. There is a chance that Pacheco is the goal line back for one of the league’s top offenses.
Isiah Pacheco's Draft Capital Delta was +10.65%. Only 13 others before this year have hit +10%. 2 of those 13 hit 16 PPR PPG in a single year across their first three in the league (15.4%). 5 of those 13 hit double digits (38.5%).
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) August 12, 2022
- Derek Carr, LV, QB Carr was fifth in air yards and secnd in accuracy rating, third in EPA per attempt on passes thrown 25+ yards since 2020, and now Adams joins the squad.
- Aaron Rodgers, GB, QB There are many splits that can show how Rodgers is more successful without Davante Adams, but over the course of the season I expect Rodgers will miss having an All-Pro receiver.
- Kirk Cousins, MIN, QB He’s finished as the QB11 in each of the past two seasons in a run-first offensive scheme. The new HC is the former OC of the LA Rams, we should see an uptick in attempts as Stafford had 70 more attempts that Kirk did when looking at the first 3 quarters of games last season.
For the east coast crowd. Was a late board drop last night. Main from the 5 hole. Not a whole lot of value fell outside of the TE’s. MT vs Hock was a tough one as well. Penny still falling to this price makes no cents. 👈#WonTime pic.twitter.com/PKVBGD9ycP
— Gildz (@The_Gildz) September 2, 2022
- Zamir White, LV, RB Fourth round pick, 6’0″, 214lbs, 29.0 BMI, 23yr, Georgia, 4.40 forty, 95th percentile speed-score. The Raiders new coaching staff let go of Kenyan Drake and didn’t sign Jacobs to a fifth-year extention.
- Alec Pierce, IND, WR Appears to have earned the WR2 role in Indy over the injury riddled Campbell.
- Isaiah McKenzie, BUF, WR McKenzie has started two games for the Bills in 2020-21: Week 16 at NE he had; 85% snaps, 12 targets, 40 routes, 30% TPRR, 125 yards, TD. Week 17 vs. MIA; 91% snaps, 9 targets, 36 routes, 25% TPRR, 65 yards, 2 TDs. He’s taking first team reps in August.
— Greg Cover 1 🏈 (@GregTompsett) July 24, 2022
- Tua Tagovailoa, MIA, QB
There is no question that with arrivals of Mike McDaniel, Tyreek Hill, Terron Armstead, others, Tua Tagovailoa is going to have his best NFL season in '22. Tua's statistics will improve and he'll further pass eye test. Anything short of a marked improvement would be surprising.
— Joe Schad (@schadjoe) August 27, 2022
- Justin Fields, CHI, QB He was a top-12 QB over his last 5 games (17.24 ppg), while averaging 56 rushing yards. Offensive line is ranked as the second worst in NFL, should lead to a high rushing floor. Chicago’s first six games are against teams with a bottom half DVOA last year.
- Trevor Lawrence, JAC, QB Tremendous playoff schedule (wk15-17), great QB for tournament play.
“Out of 29 QBs with at least 50 pass attempts on first half first downs, Trevor Lawrence’s production and rank out of 29: 0.15 EPA/att (9th), 56% success (2nd), 8.3 YPA (6th), 74% comp (6th). He also threw just one interception on 104 drop-backs.”
I went a little past the 150-player mark, but I may not be able to get you to the 200 I originally had set as a goal. If you click on the link here, it will take you to the most up-to-date version of my rankings of over 300 players, you just won’t be able to see my valuable nuggets.