Analysis
10/13/23
9 min read
Each 2023 NFL Playoff Contender's Biggest Fatal Flaw
We are five weeks into the NFL season, and the contenders are starting to emerge from the pack. We’ve seen some excellent teams in the early parts of the season, but no one is perfect. Here is every team's biggest flaw that could eventually bring them down in the postseason:
Every Playoff Contender's Biggest Flaws
San Francisco 49ers: Offensive Line
The San Francisco 49ers don't have a glaring hole on their team, and that's why they are the Super Bowl favorites. But if there is one spot that could give them trouble, it's their offensive line.
The 49ers have done an excellent job of having success on offense despite a poor offensive line. They have the No. 2 scoring offense after five games (33.4 PPG), averaging 6.3 yards per play. But the 49ers only have one offensive lineman (Trent Williams) playing at even an average level.
Can this offensive line hold up throughout the season? Or will teams exploit matchups, specifically on the right side of their offensive line? We shall see. But Kyle Shanahan has done an excellent job covering up the unit this season.
Philadelphia Eagles: Secondary
Like the 49ers, the Philadelphia Eagles have a fantastic roster void of holes. But the one flaw the team might have is their pass defense. Good quarterbacks have carved up this unit over the last 1.5 seasons, and it doesn't appear to be getting any better.
Here's how the Eagles' passing defense has fared vs. its opponents.
Mac Jones and Kirk Cousins threw for 300-plus yards against this secondary. Even Sam Howell had a lot of success. The Eagles are without several slot cornerbacks due to injuries and rely on two 30-year-old cornerbacks on the outside (Darius Slay and James Bradberry).
Is there a team in the NFC that can truly exploit their secondary in the playoffs? It didn't happen until the Super Bowl last year, and that might be the case again this year.
Kansas City Chiefs: Offensive Weapons
It's officially time to be concerned about the offensive weapons of the Kansas City Chiefs. Travis Kelce is averaging a career-low 8.2 yards per reception and 6.0 yards per target. To make matters worse, Kelce is dealing with a second lower-body injury, and his durability is a significant question mark at 34.
Nobody else in the passing attack is reliable on a game-to-game basis, and elite defenses will force Patrick Mahomes to throw the ball elsewhere.
THREE drops for Kadarius Toney tonight 😳 pic.twitter.com/W6naipqkGx
— The Sporting News (@sportingnews) September 8, 2023
It's clear the Chiefs trust Mahomes to figure it out and get the job done on offense. But Justin Watson and Noah Gray can't be this team's No. 2 and No. 4 leading receivers if the Chiefs want to repeat as Super Bowl champions.
Buffalo Bills: Run Defense
The Buffalo Bills had one of the worst run defenses in the NFL heading into Week 5 and just allowed the Jacksonville Jaguars to run for 196 yards in London. They'll play the rest of the season without All-Pro linebacker Matt Milano, who suffered a significant leg injury in that meeting.
Buffalo is allowing 5.8 yards per carry this season, and that number might get worse without Milano and DT DaQuan Jones. That could be a major problem for the Bills as we get closer to the playoffs.
>> READ: SIS Injury Analysis for Milano, White
Dallas Cowboys: Explosive Plays
Under Mike McCarthy, the Dallas Cowboys have transformed into a West Coast offense with a lot of passes at or near the line of scrimmage. This is a significant change from Kellen Moore, who loved to push the ball down the middle of the field. McCarthy's offense requires precision and staying ahead of the chains but doesn’t generate explosive plays that flip the field.
Last season, the Cowboys finished ninth in big plays. Right now, they are 17th (29 big plays created) despite multiple teams playing fewer games due to bye weeks. The Cowboys created just five big plays against the 49ers, including only one run of 10-plus yards. That’s just not going to cut it against playoff-caliber teams.
Things might get better as the season goes on, but Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and Brandin Cooks are off to the worst starts of their careers. This offense doesn't suit them, but the Cowboys must find ways to get better on that side of the ball if they want to compete with the 49ers and the Eagles in the NFC.
Miami Dolphins: Secondary
The actual answer here is Tua Tagovailoa’s health, which could also be said for any of the starting quarterbacks for the teams mentioned in this piece. But even if Tagovailoa stays healthy, the secondary is a major concern for the Miami Dolphins.
Miami is allowing 27.0 points per game this season, and its game against the Bills was deeply concerning.
A memorable day for Josh Allen. 👏@ReedsJenss | #MIAvsBUF pic.twitter.com/1ekeuempQB
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) October 1, 2023
The Dolphins allowed Buffalo to rack up 414 yards of offense, with Josh Allen only having four incompletions. The Dolphins are hopeful Jalen Ramsey can return by the playoffs, and they’ll need him to stop some of the top passing attacks in the AFC.
Detroit Lions: Secondary
The Detroit Lions have built themselves into a real contender in the NFC. After five weeks, they are the clear-cut favorites in the NFC North, as the Lions have the No. 4 scoring offense, averaging nearly 30 points per game.
Their biggest issue this season is the secondary once again. The Lions made several moves to address that unit this offseason, such as signing Cameron Sutton and selecting Brian Branch in the 2023 NFL Draft. While those players have certainly helped the defense, it's still not a great pass defense.
The Seahawks threw for 311 yards and scored 37 points against the Lions in Week 2. Even Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers scored 24 points against their defense. It's a weak group that could be exposed by better offenses in the future.
Baltimore Ravens: Pass Rush
After five games, the Baltimore Ravens have the No. 2 scoring defense in the NFL. Defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald deserves a ton of credit for that because the Ravens have suffered a ton of injuries on that side of the ball. However, part of the reason they are ranked so highly is due to a pretty soft quarterback schedule. Once it starts playing better passers, the defense could struggle.
Baltimore doesn't have enough pass rush to scare the top-end quarterbacks in the AFC. That should allow them to pass all over the banged-up secondary of the Ravens. The player with the most sacks on the team is SS Kyle Hamilton (3.0), followed by LB Patrick Queen (2.5).
THREE SACKS FOR @kyledhamilton_ GO CRAZY!
Tune in on CBS/@paramountplus! pic.twitter.com/O5PQPzicvy
— Baltimore Ravens (@Ravens) September 24, 2023
The Ravens hoped Odafe Oweh would make a leap in Year 3, but he missed a significant amount of time because of an injury. David Ojabo could miss the rest of the season (knee), and the Ravens were forced to sign aging veterans like Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy just to get average production from their edge rushers.
Someone might develop in time, but this is a massive hole on Baltimore's roster. For a team that is the favorite to win the AFC North, it might make sense to consider making a move for a top-end rusher before the trade deadline.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Red Zone Offense
The Jacksonville Jaguars have the No. 10 offense in the NFL in yards per game, averaging nearly 360 yards. However, they are just the No. 20 scoring offense, scoring just 74 points in their past four games.
Their red zone success is the biggest reason for their inability to score more points. According to Team Rankings, Jacksonville is scoring a touchdown on 46.1 percent of their red zone drives.
That is No. 23 in the NFL, behind teams like Carolina, Chicago and Denver. This issue plagued the Jaguars last season as they were below average (17th in the NFL) in the red zone in 2022.
The Jaguars need Trevor Lawrence to be a better red-zone quarterback, which might mean leaning on his legs slightly more. If the offense can find a way to score just one more touchdown per game in the red zone (versus kicking a FG), the Jaguars should compete with any team in the AFC.
Seattle Seahawks: Consistent Pass Rush
It feels weird to write that the Seahawks need to improve their pass rush after an 11-sack performance against the New York Giants. Daniel Jones had no chance in that matchup, with his entire offensive line struggling. Once Seattle got the lead, it could tee off on Jones without any resistance from the Giants.
It's a @Seahawks strip sack 💪
📺: #SEAvsNYG on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/3ctCY8GbRh pic.twitter.com/aFMbBRadUX— NFL (@NFL) October 3, 2023
But if you study the tape, you can see the Seattle Seahawks struggle to get a consistent pass rush against better teams. In the first three games of the season, the Seahawks recorded a total of five sacks. They could not bring down Matthew Stafford in Week 1, and he lit up the secondary. The Seahawks did bring down Jared Goff twice in Week 2, but he still threw for 323 yards and two touchdowns.
The Seahawks have several young players on the defensive line that could improve as the season progresses. But this unit will be hard to rely on weekly to create a pass rush, especially against good offensive lines.
Marcus Mosher is an NFL writer with a decade of experience in podcasting and writing for various NFL websites, including Bleacher Report, Pro Football Focus and The Athletic. He’s currently a managing editor at USA Today Sports Media Group and host of the Locked On Cowboys Podcast. Marcus has been working full-time covering the NFL since 2015 and works as a betting expert for Gambling.com. You can follow him at @Marcus_Mosher.
