Betting

Week 4 Main Slate Player Props

Week 4 Main Slate Player Props

Thursday’s props went 1-1-1. We saw the usage we wanted in the receiving game from Joe Mixon. But he just couldn’t get over 18.5 yards receiving. Usage is starting to stabilize as we get later into the season, and that will hopefully translate to a higher winning percentage. As always, props are listed in the order I like them, with my favorite listed last. 

Garrett Wilson OVER 11.0 Fantasy Points

Rinse, and repeat from last week’s David Njoku’s write-up. Wilson gets the Pittsburgh Steelers, who leave the middle of the field open for slot players to get catches on short routes across the middle. Receptions are not posted for Wilson, and I expect him to get a lot of usage on short routes, so I like the fantasy points line more than the yardage line for him. I would not play this line any higher if it moves, though.

DeVonta Smith OVER 4.0 Receptions

Smith has boomed over the past two weeks with 15 receptions. He currently is seeing a 24.5% target share, and I see this week’s game being similar to his Week 2 contest, where he had 7 targets for 7 receptions. I like the safety of the push potential at 4.0 receptions. Therefore, I will be playing it aggressively at 4.0 and will still play it, but not as aggressively at 4.5 if it moves.  

Christian Kirk OVER 57.5 Yards Receiving

If Christian Kirk keeps getting disrespected like this, he might be an every-week player on this list. I think the Philadelphia Eagles defense is going to scare a lot of people away from this prop, and I think it may actually drop before game time. The Eagles statistically are very good. They’re only giving up 186.7 yards passing per game, sixth-best in the NFL. But I think that has moved this line too low. If he continues to see above a 20% target share, as he has done every game this season, this prop should easily go over. I would play this until it reaches 64.5 yards receiving. 

Baker Mayfield UNDER 205.5 Yards Passing

Baker Mayfield has been less than great this season, completing just over 50% of his passes. He goes against an Arizona Cardinals defense that plays man coverage at one of the highest rates this season, playing it over 30% of the time. When Baker Mayfield has played against man coverage, he’s been downright horrific. He has only completed 9 of his 30 pass attempts for 168 yards. If the Cardinals run man coverage similar to how often they played it in Week 1, 42.8% of snaps, Baker may get nowhere close to this prop. I would play this prop until it reached 180.5 yards passing.

Amari Cooper OVER 57.5 Yards Receiving

After a weird Week 1, Amari Cooper has established himself as the WR1 in Cleveland. After 6 targets in Week 1, Cooper has had over a third of Cleveland’s targets in Weeks 2 and 3. He has also seen over 60% of Cleveland’s air yards in the last two weeks. Playing against a poor Atlanta pass defense, Cooper should get over 57.5 yards receiving. I would play this prop well into the 60s and would stop playing at 70.5 yards receiving. 

Stefon Diggs OVER 78.5 Yards Receiving

Diggs is looking like who he was in 2020. He is averaging over 100 yards receiving per game. He gets a Baltimore Ravens secondary that has been unable to stop anyone, giving up over 350 yards receiving per game. While that number is likely to regress, they are still a very weak defense that should be targeted for betting and fantasy purposes. No defense has given over 300 yards passing per game for an entire season since 2017. I would play this until it reaches 90 yards receiving. 

Additional Week 4 player props I like:

Nick Chubb OVER 18.5 Rush Attempts

Russell Wilson OVER 233.5 Yards Passing

Breece Hall over 37.5  Yards Rushing

Finally, with Hurricane Ian decimating the southwestern coast of Florida, I ask that if you win any money off these props this week, you think about donating some of your winnings to the Naples Zoo at NaplesZoo.org/donate. I have worked in the non-profit zoo world for the last 12 years, and I have close friends who work at the Naples Zoo. After Hurricane Irma hit in 2017, the Naples Zoo was closed for six weeks as they cleaned up, and I know they would appreciate any type of support during this difficult time.

WATCH MORE: Check out The 33rd Team’s Player Prop Happy Hour, featuring Josh Larky, Ryan Reynolds, and Ben Wolbransky!

 

 

Scroll to the Top