New England Patriots (3-4) at New York Jets (5-2)
Opening Spread: Jets +1.5
Opening Game Total: 41
Opening Team Totals: Jets (19.75), Patriots (21.25)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Jets +1.5.
- This line has moved to Jets +2.5 as of Thursday morning.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Jets +1.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Jets +2.5.
- This total opened at 41 points.
- This total has moved slightly up to 41.5 points.
Jets: IR: RB Breece Hall, FB Nick Bawden, OT Mekhi Becton, OT George Fant, OT Max Mitchell, OT/ OG Alijah Vera-Tucker; Out: Corey Davis; Questionable: LT Duane Brown, Edge Jermaine Johnson.
Patriots: Questionable: WR Nelson Agholor, WR Kendrick Bourne, C David Andrews, RG Mike Onwenu, RT Isaiah Wynn, LB Josh Uche, CB Jonathan Jones, S Kyle Dugger.
The Jets Offense vs. Patriots Defense
The Jets have had extreme injury issues at offensive tackle this year. They’ve done a remarkable job of managing those obstacles, but Mike Remmers will be getting the start at right tackle this week due to the Jets’ litany of injuries at the position. While New England doesn’t have a trench edge from a macro sense in this contest, Patriots edge Matthew Judon leads the league in sacks. Judon has a matchup advantage against either Jets offensive tackle, but a massive one against Remmers.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Jets are 5-2 against the spread this season.
- The Jets are 3-4 on overs this season.
- Zach Wilson is 9-8 against the spread in his career.
- Zach Wilson is 9-8 on overs in his career.
- Robert Saleh is 11-13 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Robert Saleh is 13-11 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Jets are scoring 22.7 points per game, good for 14th in the league.
- New York is 22nd in the league in yards passing per game and 17th in yards rushing.
- New York’s offense was pass-centric under Joe Flacco. It’s shifted to a much more run-centric attack since Zach Wilson returned to action against the Steelers in Week 4.
- The Jets have gone on a four-game winning streak since Wilson returned against Pittsburgh.
- With Breece Hall out for the year, we can still reasonably expect the Jets to be a run-heavy offense when they are in neutral or positive game scripts. But Hall was a genuine difference-maker.
- Michael Carter will be on top of the Jets’ backfield in this contest, where he will be supplemented by Ty Johnson. Newly-acquired running back James Robinson could see some limited usage as he gets acclimated to his new offense.
- Per the Edge, Garrett Wilson had at least eight targets in each of the three games Joe Flacco started while breaching ten targets twice. Since Zach Wilson’s return Garrett Wilson has seen between four and six targets in each of those four games.
- Elijah Moore requested a trade due to his limited usage, and then sat for last week’s contest in Denver. Moore is back this week and is in a very obvious ‘squeaky wheel gets some grease” position. Last year Moore ripped off a 19-yard run for a score against the Patriots, where he exhibited his difference-making speed.
- With Corey Davis out, Braxton Berrios is in line for role expansion.
- Tyler Conklin saw between seven and nine targets with Joe Flacco at quarterback. His role has fallen off a cliff since Zach Wilson returned to action.
- The Patriots have allowed 20.9 points per game, which is 14th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Patriots have allowed the 14th-most yards rushing per game and the 13th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- New England has given up the 21st-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Patriots have allowed the 22nd-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Patriots Offense vs. Jets Defense
This is a strength vs. strength type of trench matchup as both the Patriots and Jets have top-ten caliber lines. Consider this trench matchup as a relative draw.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Patriots are 3-3-1 against the spread this season.
- The Patriots are 4-3 on overs this season.
- Mac Jones is 10-10-1 against the spread in his career.
- Jones is 11-10 on overs in his career.
- Bill Belichick is 205-143-12 against the spread in his last 360 games.
- Belichick is 184-171-5 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Patriots are scoring 22.1 points per game, which is 16th in the league.
- New England is 21st in the league in yards passing per game and 12th in yards rushing.
- Mac Jones started at quarterback last Monday night but was given a quick hook. Bailey Zappe came out hot with a few fortuitous plays but struggled throughout the rest of the night.
- Jones will start at quarterback for the Patriots this week.
- Per the Edge, Rhamondre Stevenson is 12th among running backs in yards rushing per game.
- Since Damien Harris went out with a hamstring injury during Week 5’s win over Detroit, Stevenson has seen bell cow usage both as a runner and in the passing game.
- Right now, we should expect Stevenson to continue staying on top of this backfield while Harris sees a more notable number of carries as the season progresses.
- Jakobi Meyers leads the Patriots in target share (22.9%) and air yards share (32.6%).
- DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor, and Tyquan Thornton all have target shares between 12% and 16.5%. Parker has a significant 29% air yards share and should be considered the second option in New England’s passing attack.
- From a fantasy sense when Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith are both active they cut into each other’s opportunities. From a pure football sense, however, Henry and Smith are one of the best tight end tandems in the league.
- The Jets have allowed 19.6 points per game, which is tenth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Jets have allowed the 20th-most yards rushing per game and the 23rd-most yards receiving per game to running backs this year.
- New York has given up the 25th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this season.
- The Jets have allowed the fifth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this year.
This is What You’re Betting On in Jets vs. Patriots
The Patriots have won twelve games in a row against the Jets. Last season the Patriots beat the Jets 25-6 at MetLife Stadium and stomped New York in Foxborough, 54-13. The Jets have a much better roster right now than they have over the last half-decade or more. The Jets are flying very high right now, entering this game on a four-game winning streak since Zach Wilson returned to action. The Patriots were embarrassed by the Bears at home last week 33-14 in front of a national audience on Monday Night Football. This is a classic correction spot for both teams.
If you’re betting on the Patriots, you are betting on a Bill Belichick team in an obvious correction spot against a Jets team that is blowing expectations out of the water. Given the crowd’s reaction to Mac Jones last week, I actually think Jones and the Patriots are fortunate to be on the road in this contest. We can reasonably expect a much tighter performance out of the Patriots this week in all phases.
The Jets’ defense has been the driving force behind their four-game winning streak. New England’s offensive line is capable of mitigating the Jets surging front four. The Patriots aren’t overly reliant on any one pass-catcher, which means that Jets rookie cornerback Sauce Gardner could be outright avoided if New England wants. Jones isn’t a dynamic athlete, but he’s a fast processor that led the Patriots to the playoffs in his rookie campaign last season. A bet on the Patriots here is a direct bet against Zach Wilson, who played well in a back-and-forth win against the Steelers in his season debut but hasn’t had to do too much in weeks. Patriots edge Matthew Judon has a great individual matchup in this contest and could be a real factor here, especially if the Jets have to play from behind late.
I’ve been bullish on the Jets since win totals opened in late March, but I was not expecting a 5-2 start given their schedule. I went into the year thinking that the Jets had a fringe top-ten front and an improved secondary. Both of those groups are playing better than I was expecting to this point in the season. The Jets offense is my concern in this contest. Breece Hall was already a difference maker at running back, and New York has been run heavy since Wilson returned. The Jets want to run the ball in neutral and positive game scripts, but the loss of Hall greatly reduces their ceiling in that phase. The idea of Zach Wilson having to play from behind against a Belichick defense with Mike Remmers at right tackle is my primary concern with a Jets bet in this contest.
Awards Market Ramifications: Robert Saleh is a Coach of the Year contender. Sauce Gardner is the Defensive Rookie of the Year favorite.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’ll be taking the Patriots in winner pools, and I expect that I will be higher than consensus on them in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: There are a number of lines that look “wrong” when using conventional wisdom. When I can get to the “wrong” side winning through my process, I often bet on those games. I bet on New England earlier in the week, and I will take them in at least one of my ATS tournament entries this weekend.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 24-11
Props 2022: 23-13
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