Cincinnati Bengals (9-4) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7)
Opening Spread: Buccaneers +3.5.
Opening Game Total: 43.
Opening Team Totals: Buccaneers (19.75) Bengals (23.25).
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Buccaneers +3.5.
- This line remains at Buccaneers +3.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Buccaneers +3.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Buccaneers +3.5.
- This total opened at 43-points.
- This total has moved to 43.5 points.
Buccaneers: Out: DT Vita Vea, CB Jamel Dean. Questionable: WR Julio Jones, RT Tristan Wirfs, Edge Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, S Antoine Winfield Jr., S Mike Edwards.
Bengals: Out: TE Hayden Hurst, Edge Trey Hendrickson. Questionable: WR Tee Higgins, WR Tyler Boyd.
The Buccaneers Offense vs. Bengals Defense
Without right tackle Tristan Wirfs, I have the Buccaneers offensive line tiered as a slightly below-average unit. The Bengals defensive front is a unique group. Against the run, the Bengals have a top-ten level front. However, their pass rush without Trey Hendrickson is a bottom-tier unit. The Bengals defensive front has an advantage in the run game, but the Buccaneers offensive line has an advantage in pass protection.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Buccaneers are 3-9-1 against the spread this season.
- The Buccaneers are 3-10 on overs this season.
- Tom Brady is 187-130-12 against the spread in his career.
- Tom Brady is 169-158-2 on overs in his career.
- Todd Bowles is 35-40-5 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Todd Bowles is 38-42 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Buccaneers are scoring 17.2 points per game, which is 28th in the league.
- Tampa Bay is sixth in the league in yards passing per game and last in yards rushing.
- The Buccaneers are passing on 69% of their plays and running on 31% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, over the last month Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White have entered a roughly even split where both players are seeing massive passing game volume most weeks. For instance, Fournette has 14 targets over Tampa’s while White has 13 total targets over that span.
- Chris Godwin has a 22.2% target share with an 18.1% air yards share this season. Godwin has double-digit targets in seven of his last ten games.
- Mike Evans has a 19% target share and a 35% air yards share this season. Evans has been held below 60 yards receiving in each of his last five games.
- Julio Jones has an 11.1% target share and a 22.3% air yards share.
- Cameron Brate has a 10.9% target share while Cade Otton has a 9.7% target share this season.
- The Bengals have allowed 20.4 points per game, which is 11th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Bengals have allowed the 22nd-most yards rushing per game and the 18th-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Cincinnati has given up the 25th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Bengals have allowed the tenth-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Bengals have allowed the seventh-most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot.
The Bengals Offense vs. Buccaneers Defense
After being more of a liability than an asset through the first half of the season, I have the Bengals offensive line currently tiered as a league-average unit. Without Shaquil Barrett and Vita Vea, I have pushed the Buccaneers defensive front into below average territory. The Bengals offensive line has a mild advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Bengals are 10-3 against the spread this season.
- The Bengals are 4-8-1 on overs this season.
- Joe Burrow is 25-14 against the spread in his career.
- Joe Burrow is 18-19-2 on overs in his career.
- Zac Taylor is 35-27 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Zac Taylor is 27-33-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
- The Bengals are scoring 25.8 points per game, which is sixth in the league.
- Cincinnati is third in the league in yards passing per game and 24th in yards rushing.
- The Bengals are passing on 65% of their plays and running on 35% of plays, per Sports Info Solutions.
- Per the Edge, Joe Mixon is 18th in the league in yards rushing with 701 and he’s tenth among running backs in yards receiving.
- Samaje Perine is 13th among running backs in yards receiving.
- Ja’Marr Chase has a 29.4% target share and a 38.8% air yards share. Chase has double-digit targets in six of his nine games this season. Chase has 23 total targets in his two games since returning from injury.
- Tee Higgins has an 18.3% target share and a 27.6% air yards share this season.
- Tyler Boyd has a 14% target share with a 19.2% air yards share this season.
- Hayden Hurst’s fill-in, Mitchell Wilcox, has eight receptions on nine targets this season.
- The Buccaneers have allowed 19.5 points per game, which is ninth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Buccaneers have allowed the 15th-most yards rushing per game and the fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Tampa Bay has given up the 23rd-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Buccaneers have allowed the 12th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Buccaneers have allowed the second-most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot.
This Is What You’re Betting On in Buccaneers vs. Bengals
Considering the talent on Tom Brady’s offense this season, they have been atrocious. This team has scored less than 20 points in four of their last five games. Tampa scored 21 points against Seattle, which is the lone time they breached that number during that span. If you are betting on the Bucs in this spot you are betting on one of two core outcomes. The first is that Brady’s offense plays their best game of the season. I don’t really view Tampa’s 31 points against the Chiefs that all came in a negative game script as a good performance. Tampa’s next highest offensive output on the season came on Thursday Night Football in Week 8 against the Bucs, where they lost 27-22. If you’re betting on the Bucs, you’re betting on a 24-point or better type of game offensively. The other outcome is that Tampa Bay’s defense holds Joe Burrow’s Bengals under 20 points. Tampa will have to swing that while down their two best defensive linemen with four of their five secondary starters either already ruled out or listed as questionable. If I’m betting on the Bucs, I’m building that bet around the Brady angle.
When you bet on the Bengals you get to bet on Joe Burrow’s offense. In this particular instance, Burrow will face an injury ravaged Buccaneers defense that is down their two best linemen while four of their five secondary starters are either on the injury report or already ruled out. Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd could end up somewhere between limited or out for this contest, which would reduce the Bengals advantage in the air. Still, Joe Burrow is a top-five quarterback in the league in a potential smash spot here. Defensively, the Bengals will be without their lone difference making pass rusher in Edge Trey Hendrickson. Your biggest concern as a Bengals bettor is that Tom Brady is comfortable all day against Cincinnati’s injury reduced pass rush and that leads to a long overdue spike game from Tampa’s talented offense.
Awards Market Ramifications: Joe Burrow is an MVP contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’ll be Bengals heavy in winner pools, but I will play the Bucs at least once in that format. I will be right inline with consensus on this contest in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I will bet the Bengals or pass here. Not only is there a clear path to the Bengals covering in this contest, this game has some passing of the torch feel to it.
Survivor Pool: I would ideally avoid this game in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 43-22
Props 2022: 43-29
WATCH MORE: Bengals-Buccaneers Betting Preview