Analysis

12/9/22

6 min read

NFL Week 14 Offensive Efficiency Rankings

The Kansas City Chiefs appear to have just about locked in the distinction of being the top offense in the 2022 NFL regular season. They are creating an extra 8.4 points per 60 offensive plays (about a game’s worth) compared to an average offense, while the next best Eagles are creating an extra 4.8 points per 60.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, there is a race to the bottom where two AFC South rivals are battling it out. The Texans are currently in pole position, creating 11.4 fewer points per 60 offensive plays than average, but the Colts are also more than 10 points per 60 below average. Unfortunately for their fanbases, the team that has the worst offense at the end of the year will not be awarded Victor Wembanyama.

Offensive Efficiency Rankings Explained

This season, we’ve taken a weekly temperature on the efficiency of each offense and defense. This article will once again check in on how each NFL offense ranks in EPA/Play. If you’re unfamiliar with EPA, it stands for expected points added and is simply a way to measure whether or not a play brought a team closer to scoring.

For example, it’s easy to understand that a gain of five yards on fourth-and-4 is good, whereas a gain of five yards on fourth-and-6 is bad, and EPA can contextualize that in a way that net yards cannot.

To put into context the worth of a big turnover, another example would be a quarterback throwing a pick-six on first-and-goal from the opponent’s 1-yard line. Conventional wisdom would say that was a 14-point swing – because we expected the offense to score a touchdown in that situation – and EPA would reflect roughly that.

1. Kansas City Chiefs

EPA/Play = 0.14

Last Week = 1

There are some surprising and some not surprising things when you look at how the specific aspects of Kansas City’s offense have performed in terms of Total Points.

It will stun nobody that Patrick Mahomes is the league’s top passer and that KC’s rushers have been middle-of-the-road, but despite losing Tyreek Hill in the offseason, the Chiefs have maintained a top 3 receiving group on the strength of Travis Kelce. The scary part is that they rank just 30th in blocking despite having remade the offensive line before last season. Mahomes has been so good that even if for some reason he were to miss the rest of the regular season (I hope he doesn’t), he would still be my top choice for MVP. Lock it in.

2. Philadelphia Eagles

EPA/Play = 0.08

Last Week = T-2

3. Buffalo Bills

EPA/Play = 0.06

Last Week = T-2

T-4. Cincinnati Bengals

EPA/Play = 0.03

Last Week = T-6

T-4. Las Vegas Raiders

EPA/Play = 0.03

Last Week = 5

T-6. Detroit Lions

EPA/Play = 0.02

Last Week = T-12

Despite its historically bad defense, Detroit’s offense has quietly been solid all year and have now jumped into a tie for the sixth spot on the list. Amon-Ra St. Brown has had “Boom” plays (creating at least 1 EPA) on 31% of his targets, and all five of their starting linemen have performed above average. The Lions advantage in the trenches is a big part of the reason why they are favored against the 10-2 Vikings. In terms of the quarterback matchup, Goff ranks 16th and Cousins is 19th in terms of Total Points per play this season.

T-6. Seattle Seahawks

EPA/Play = 0.02

Last Week = T-6

T-8. Dallas Cowboys

EPA/Play = 0.01

Last Week = T-9

T-8. Miami Dolphins

EPA/Play = 0.01

Last Week = 4

A rough performance against the Niners has taken the Dolphins out of the top 5, and it has become clear that one of the most important supporting cast members in Mike McDaniel’s Tua-Tyreek-Waddle extravaganza is left tackle Terron Armstead, whose contract defies the notion that the best ability is availability. Tagovailoa’s completion percentage is 70% with Armstead on the field and 58% with him out. Miami has been 23 points per 60 offensive plays (about a game’s worth) better with him on the field compared to without him. Per 60 pass plays, that number is a whopping 32. If you are a smart-aleck like me, you will surely point out that much of Armstead’s missed time coincides with Tua, so now I will proceed to blow your mind:

Since Week 7 (when Tua returned from injury), the Dolphins are 33 points better per 60 offensive plays with Armstead compared to without him and 44 points better per 60 pass plays. Miami hopes that he can return from injury on Sunday night.

T-10. Baltimore Ravens

EPA/Play = -0.01

Last Week = T-6

T-10. Jacksonville Jaguars

EPA/Play = -0.01

Last Week = T-12

The Jaguars are a surprise on the edge of the top 10, and on closer inspection this is to the credit of the strengths of Jacksonville’s passing game and offensive line. On an offense without a ton of firepower, Trevor Lawrence has quietly worked his way up to 11th in the NFL in Total Points amongst QBs and he plays behind the fourth ranked overall blocking unit.

T-10. San Francisco 49ers

EPA/Play = -0.01

Last Week = T-9

13. Cleveland Browns

EPA/Play = -0.02

Last Week = T-9

After one week with the quarterback with the most fully guaranteed money in NFL history, the Browns have dropped four spots in the rankings. Meanwhile, Jacoby Brissett is amazingly still eighth amongst QBs in Total Points.