NFL Analysis
11/26/23
5 min read
C.J. Stroud, Trevor Lawrence Is NFL's Next Great Rivalry
The Trevor Lawrence vs. C.J. Stroud rivalry is everything we hoped for and more.
With division title rights on the line, Lawrence and Stroud went blow for blow in Week 12. For every nifty play Lawrence made outside the pocket, Stroud did one better. Every strike down the seam by Stroud was answered by Lawrence unloading a missile to Calvin Ridley.
Both quarterbacks even found the end zone with their legs: Lawrence with a goal-line sneak and Stroud with some improvisation on a broken play-action pass inside the five.
It was a kaiju battle between two of the league's heaviest hitters for four quarters.
In a literal sense, Lawrence won this round. The Jacksonville Jaguars held on for a 24-21 win, likely securing the division title.
We are the real winners, though — fans, analysts and general football enjoyers alike. Everyone who loves plopping down on their couch to relish in our modern-day gladiator sport is better off for this budding rivalry between two ascending quarterbacks.
Why Lawrence vs. Stroud Is Special
Lawrence vs. Stroud is primed to be a heated divisional battle for the next decade.
The NFL needed one of those. It's so rare that the NFL gets two rising quarterback stars in the same division on teams with equally optimistic outlooks for deep playoff contention. So many stars have to align.
Think about the other hotly contested quarterback rivalries of the past 10-20 years. Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning was a battle of the GOATs.
To a lesser extent, Brady and Ben Roethlisberger were always in each other's way towards the AFC title. Patrick Mahomes vs. Joe Burrow and Josh Allen now serves as the updated version of that quarterback triangle.
None of those guys played, or play, in the same division. You expect them to meet in January, but they aren't duking it out twice a year for a division title.
The closest we have to that dynamic are Burrow and Lamar Jackson in the AFC North, Mahomes and Justin Herbert in the AFC West and Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott in the NFC East.
Jackson vs. Burrow — electric as it should be — is clouded by Jackson missing three of the nine battles between the two teams over the years. Jackson is also 5-1 in the games he has gotten to play. That stat has as much to do with Jackson as it does the Ravens’ defense having Burrow's number.
Mahomes vs. Herbert barely has any juice because the Los Angeles Chargers will always be little brother to the Chiefs.
Even Hurts vs. Prescott doesn't bring the same excitement, perhaps because of the constant ire directed at whoever plays quarterback for the Cowboys at any given time.
The Lawrence-Stroud battle just feels different. It's an all-out brawl between two fearless, young quarterbacks trying to pull their franchise out of the muck. There's something about both teams and quarterbacks being on a journey to earn their keep in the AFC that adds a unique spice to the matchup.
Comparing Lawrence, Stroud
Even beyond the "phoenix from the ashes" vibes these teams emanate, the stylistic differences between Lawrence and Stroud make it a compelling fight. They're cut from the same cloth in many ways — tough, creative, aggressive — but how it manifests on the football field is different.
Lawrence has mastered the art of chipping away at defenses to set up for the haymaker. Lawrence's pre-snap ability, quick trigger and ample arm strength are the perfect blend of traits for Doug Pederson's West Coast offense.
Tedious as it is at times, Lawrence is patient enough to nickel-and-dime defenses with RPOs and quick passes all the way down the field, carefully setting up for shot plays later. It's not always a given for young quarterbacks to play with that level of maturity.
When Pederson calls on Lawrence to uncork it down the field, he does. Lawrence excels at pushing the ball into tight windows and firing the ball outside the numbers. He is fearless when making big throws when his team needs it most.
The Jaguars haven't always unlocked their offense to attack down the field this year, but they can do it. Lawrence found four 40-plus yards completions in this game alone, something that hadn't been done by any quarterback since 2020, according to the broadcast.
If the Jaguars’ offensive line could pass protect, there's no doubt we would see more of that than we have for most of the season.
For Stroud, it's almost the opposite. He can play the dink and dunk game when asked to, but that's not the Texans' plan for him most of the time. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik instead unleashes Stroud to be a three-point shooter.
According to TruMedia, Stroud's 9.09 average depth of target is fourth in the NFL, trailing only the two play-action merchants in Tennessee and Deshaun Watson in Cleveland.
Stroud is chucking it all over the intermediate and deep portions of the field as often as he can, and the Texans’ offensive line gives him a fortress to do so.
Still More to Come
Neither of these players is at the peak of their powers. Lawrence could still clean up the occasional misfires and some of his ball security issues.
Stroud should only sharpen his game further the more he plays. Both players are top-10 quarterbacks with room left to grow.
As long as Lawrence and Stroud are around, this matchup will be an appointment viewing. Their two yearly meetings will define the division for a decade, if not the conference at large.
