After 4 full weeks of football, we now have a relatively clear picture of what the 2021-22 NFL season will look like. It’s hard to say that the Cardinals are not legit contenders or that Jacksonville is still a sleeper team. A month of football has proved otherwise. Now that we know what’s real and what was simply a one-week outlier, it’s time to stop trading based on overreactions and start trading based on value. Trading for players who are undervalued by the public is one of the key ways to go far in your fantasy league.
Last Week Recap:
Last week was my first big miss of the season. I said to buy low on Allen Robinson and Brandon Aiyuk and to sell high on Tyler Lockett. One of my fans told me that my Robinson pick would either make me look like “a genius or a schmo.” After Week 4 I have to admit that I’m a schmo for believing in Robinson. My reasoning for why I liked Robinson was that I thought Fields would do much better than people expected, which he did. Unfortunately, however, he decided to throw most of his passes to Darnell Mooney. Robinson finished the game with 3 receptions on 3 targets for 63 yards. He played efficiently, he just didn’t put up great numbers.
I also recommended buying low on Brandon Aiyuk, who managed to play even worse than Robinson with only 1 reception for 15 yards. Aiyuk frustrates me. He has so much potential but he just can never seem to get consistent targets. It looks like Deebo Samuel is truly the number one option on the 49ers. On the bright side, Tyler Lockett did prove to be a good player to sell high, finishing his game with only 4 receptions for 24 yards.
Buy Low: Trey Lance
I will admit that Trey Lance’s value is much higher than last week after he played very well on Sunday. However, Lance has the potential to be a Top 5 QB in the league for fantasy when he actually gets the opportunity to play. Even if Jimmy Garoppolo does end up returning for a few games, the 49ers want Lance to play and he should be starting soon enough. Once he does, he will have one of the best receiving corps in the NFL at his disposal, and one of the best offensive lines protecting him. Lance is in one of the most ideal situations imaginable. If Garoppolo is out again this week and Lance shows out, he could earn himself the starting role permanently. The best part about trading for Lance is that he won’t be very expensive. He is low risk, high reward. With the potential that Lance has, I don’t see any reason not to attempt to trade for him.
Acquire: Trey Lance, Tyler Higbee
Sell High: Cordarrelle Patterson
Over the past 3 weeks, Cordarrelle Patterson has had outstanding fantasy production seemingly from out of nowhere. He wasn’t even supposed to be the starting running back on the Falcons. This situation reminds me of when Devonta Freeman scored 25+ fantasy points for four weeks straight in 2015. After the fourth week, Freeman played out the rest of the season as an average to subpar running back. I expect the same thing to happen with Patterson. I don’t think he will completely fall off the face of the earth and get 0 touches per game or anything like that. However, his production for the rest of the season will be no better than that of an RB3 on an average fantasy team. It would be smart to trade Patterson while his value is still really high. One bad week and his trade stock will plummet.
Trade Away: Cordarelle Patterson, Jaylen Waddle
Buy Low: Marquise Brown
After three horrendous drops in Week 3, Marquise Brown responded to the criticism he received all week by making an excellent touchdown catch in the Ravens win over the Broncos. For the first two seasons of his career, Brown was recognized as a deep threat who did not put up consistent numbers and was therefore not a viable fantasy option. However, he now leads his team in receptions. If Brown can continue to be a deep threat while also maintaining the reception pace he is on now, he will start to look a lot like Tyreek Hill. Brown has shown flashes of what he can be throughout the first four weeks, but it is essential to trade for him before he has that one breakout week that skyrockets his value.
Acquire: Marquise Brown, Kenyan Drake
As we get deeper into the season, you need to adjust your strategies for making trades. It is easiest to trade at the beginning of the season when everyone tends to overreact. As we transition towards the middle of the season, people aren’t going to make trades based on one week performances. That’s why it is essential to be able to recognize which players are over and undervalued and trade accordingly.