Fantasy

10/10/22

14 min read

33 Fantasy Takeaways from Week 5

By Josh Larky

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Below, you'll find 33 fantasy takeaways from Week 5, organized by game/team.

Colts at Broncos (12 - 9)

• Matt Ryan took six sacks on Thursday night, and has now been sacked 21 times on the season. He is now on pace for 71 sacks, which would be well above his career-high from 2019 (48 sacks taken). Matt Ryan is unlikely to finish the season healthy at this pace. Michael Pittman has been affected by the Colts' weak offensive line, and his average depth of target has dropped from 9.7 (2021) to 6.4 yards (2022). His fantasy points per game have fallen just over two, as a result (14 to 12).
• With Javonte Williams out for the season, Melvin Gordon was the clear lead back in Week 5. Gordon and Mike Boone Week 5 stats below.

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Giants at Packers (27 - 22)

• Credit needs to be given to Giants head coach Brian Daboll and Daniel Jones. Despite throwing to Darius Slayton (seven targets), Daniel Bellinger (three), Marcus Johnson (three), Richie James (two), and David Sills (two), the Giants' offense was more than competent against Green Bay, as Daniel Jones completed 78% of his passes for 217 yards (season high). Wan'Dale Robinson and Kadarius Toney will hopefully return soon, but the biggest beneficiary of the offense's success has been Saquon Barkley. Barkley has ten red zone (four goal line) carries on the season, and three TDs through five games. He's averaging nearly 21 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues, and is a Top-3 RB option rest of season.
• The Giants came into this matchup as a bottom-10 pass defense via Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, but held Aaron Rodgers to under six passing yards per attempt. In addition to the passing offense sputtering, AJ Dillon saw season-low usage in Week 5. I'm not panicking yet, but if this happens again in Week 6, he will no longer be a start-able fantasy asset. Week 5 stats below.

Lions at Patriots (0 - 29)

• Josh Reynolds has seen at least eight targets in three straight games, averaging 17.3 PPR points per game during this stretch. The Lions have a Week 6 bye, and I'd recommend picking him up if he falls to waivers. DJ Chark likely returns Week 7, and Jameson Williams is waiting in the wings, but Jared Goff and Reynolds were teammates with the Rams, and clearly have solid chemistry. Think of him as a handcuff WR, like Tyler Boyd or Josh Palmer. Anytime there's an injury to the starters, Reynolds looks like a plug-and-play WR2 type.
• If Jakobi Meyers is sitting on waivers, he needs to be a high priority add. He has at least six targets in all three games this season, and 95 or more yards in two of three. He is now averaging nearly 18 PPR points per game, and has had a 38% target share in each of his past two games.

Chargers at Browns (30 - 28)

• Mike Williams has officially broken free of his deep threat-only label. Williams has led the team in targets each of the past two weeks, and his 24 targets in that span is more than double that of second place Austin Ekeler (11). Anytime Keenan Allen is out, Williams is a mid-range WR1 for fantasy purposes, and now has back-to-back games with double digit targets and at least 120 receiving yards. Williams remains a great buy-high in fantasy football, who only has two TDs through five games, despite six red zone (four end zone) targets and at least 100 air yards in four of five games.
• The Chargers are the premier defense to target for RBs, and play the Broncos in Week 6. Prepare to fire up both Melvin Gordon and Mike Boone for that matchup. Below are five notable fantasy RB performances against the Chargers from Week 3 onward.

Texans at Jaguars (13 - 6)

• Dameon Pierce now has at least 16 combined carries/targets in each of the past four games, and has gone over 18 fantasy points in three of those four contests. He's a high-end RB2 moving forward, who has 13 red zone carries (six goal line) during this stretch.
• Travis Etienne may be overtaking James Robinson as the JAX RB1. Average stats over the past two weeks.

Falcons at Buccaneers (15 - 21)

• Despite a bad fantasy performance (4.5 PPR points), Tyler Allgeier had encouraging usage in Cordarrelle Patterson's absence. I expected Allgeier to handle work between-the-20s, with Caleb Huntley mixing in near the goal line. Instead, Allgeier had 13 carries to Huntley's eight and Avery Williams' three. Allgeier also had three red zone attempts, while Huntley and Williams only had one each. Allgeier should be flex-viable in the right matchup as the early down workhorse for ATL.
• Leonard Fournette finally found the end zone in 2022, scoring twice in Week 5. The usage was there all along, and his 35.9 PPR points now bring him up to over 18 per game on the season. Fournette handled 14 of 19 RB carries, including the two red zone carries (one at the goal line). Also, he was targeted 11 times on 28 routes, bringing in ten of them for 83 yards and a TD. He is a high-end RB1 moving forward, despite Rachaad White's emergence as a change of pace back. Fournette and White have averaged over 39 fantasy points per game over the past two weeks.

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Steelers at Bills (3 - 38)

• The Steelers have a well below average defense and offensive line, which is forcing them to pass early and often. There is potential for all three Steelers WRs to have some type of fantasy relevance each week, though I still only view Diontae Johnson as a confident weekly start. George Pickens is approaching that territory, and Chase Claypool showed signs of life in Week 5. Pat Freiermuth suffered a concussion in this contest, and if he can't go in Week 6, all three PIT WRs are interesting Week 6 options against Tampa Bay.

• The Buffalo Bills have won three games by at least 21 points, and the other two games were both decided by three points or fewer. Devin Singletary is clearly being saved for the close games, and I provided his per game usage splits below. Buffalo faces Kansas City on the road in Week 6, and I'm expecting Singletary to play a workhorse role in that contest.

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Dolphins at Jets (17 - 40)

• Chase Edmonds can be dropped in shallow leagues. Per game stats from the past two weeks below.

• Breece Hall is an RB1 rest of season, as the bell cow in a surprisingly competent NYJ offense. Hall's playing time has increased the past three weeks, and he's averaging nearly 20 fantasy points per game during this span, with at least 92 yards or a TD in each contest. He has 165 receiving yards over this stretch, too. I would flip Derrick Henry or Dalvin Cook for Breece Hall+ in redraft, since I view all three roughly equally moving forward.

Bears at Vikings (22 - 29)

• Justin Fields has attempted 22 and 21 passes the past two weeks, the only two times he's been over 17 pass attempts this season. Darnell Mooney (13.4, Week 4) and Dante Pettis (12.1, Week 1) are the only two CHI pass catchers to surpass 10 PPR points in a game. Do not start any CHI players, and even Darnell Mooney is borderline droppable, even in deeper formats. I do not see the pass-catching upside of anyone in this run-heavy, below average offense.
• Justin Jefferson has at least 11 targets in four of five games this season. I mentioned last week that Justin Jefferson was a buy-high in redraft, and that remains heading into Week 6. He faces the Dolphins, Cardinals, and Commanders the next three weeks, and all are bottom-10 defenses against the pass.

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Titans at Commanders (21 - 17)

• Derrick Henry's receiving run continued, as he now has at least 30 receiving yards in three straight. He's only run 32 total routes during this span, but his 13 targets indicate the Titans are clearly scheming his touches in space, a very good development for his fantasy stock. Henry will continue to a prisoner to the Titans offense, which has underwhelmed this season. However, his weekly floor has risen with the added pass-catching.
• Brian Robinson was shot less than two months ago. He returned to game action in Week 5 and officially nuked any fantasy value that Antonio Gibson was clinging to. Week 5 RB usage below. No WAS RB is fantasy viable when all three are healthy.

Seahawks at Saints (32 - 39)

• Geno Smith has thrown for at least 268 yards and at least two touchdowns each of the past three games. The Seahawks have dialed up the play volume and it's paying dividends for Geno, along with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Per game numbers below for Metcalf and Lockett during this stretch, who both look like WR2 types going forward.

• I mentioned Alvin Kamara multiple times as a redraft buy after his Week 3 game. He missed Week 4, but those who stayed patient were more than rewarded in Week 5. Always chase usage. Week 3 and Week 5 gamelogs below.

49ers at Panthers (37 - 15)

• Jeff Wilson now has over 100 total yards in three of four starts this season, and continues to be a mid-high end RB2 until Elijah Mitchell returns. He has seven red zone carries (four goal line) during this span, and has topped 12 PPR points in all four games.
• Christian McCaffrey has surpassed 23 fantasy points each of the past two weeks, with at least nine targets in both contests. Baker Mayfield suffered a high ankle sprain, and the more mobile PJ Walker is likely a negative development for CMC's pass catching. At this point, CMC is a hold due to the swirling trade rumors, but he likely sees a substantial target decline in any future games with Walker at QB.

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Eagles at Cardinals (20 - 17)

• Dallas Goedert has an elite fantasy floor this season. He has 60 or more receiving yards in four of five games this year, along with a red zone target in four of five games. He has only found the end zone once this season, but is on pace for 82 catches and 1,139 receiving yards. He is a great trade target, as the TDs will come in this explosive Eagles offense.

• Rondale Moore officially slid into the Greg Dortch role in Week 5, and Rondale is now an every week starter in fantasy football. Rondale is an electric talent with the ball in his hands, and the 2.25 yard average target depth in Week 5 was passable given his eight targets, which he turned into 68 receiving yards. If the Cardinals continue to feed Rondale Moore in space, he should be a WR3 type in Week 6, and likely still flex viable even when DeAndre Hopkins returns in Week 7.

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Cowboys at Rams (22 - 10)

• Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard have similar stats, despite Elliott getting nearly twice the usage of Pollard. Hoping the Cowboys come to their senses and make this a merit-based committee, instead of deferring to the veteran. Per game averages below for 2022.

• This stat feels like a cruel riddle. Matthew Stafford is averaging 13.4 fantasy points per game. Cooper Kupp is doubling that, at 26.8 PPR points per game. This should not be possible, and Kupp truly is the Rams' offense at this point.

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Bengals at Ravens (17 - 19)

• Tee Higgins likely misses Week 6 against the Saints with a sprained ankle. The Saints pass defense has struggled heavily this season, and Tyler Boyd is a must-start assuming Higgins misses time. Despite being disappointing through five weeks, I would also send out some trade offers for Ja'Marr Chase. he just had his third game of the season with at least ten targets, and has the second-most red zone targets and seventh most end zone targets among all players on the season. The next two games after that are the Falcons and the Browns, two more below average secondaries. The Chase eruption game will happen soon.
• Go out and trade for JK Dobbins. John Harbaugh reiterated that Dobbins is still on a pitch count as he returns from a nasty ACL injury last season. Also, go out and try to trade for Lamar Jackson, after back-to-back games of only 15 fantasy points. Lamar has 23 combined rush attempts in this span, and Rashod Bateman has a chance to return this week. I struggle to see how Lamar doesn't bounce back when he's running so frequently.

Takeaways 31-33

• Falcons head coach Arthur Smith is officially in donkey territory, as Olamide Zaccheaus ran more routes than Drake London in Week 5 (27 - 23). I cannot remember seeing a situation like this before in fantasy football, where a career backup WR is running more routes than an elite rookie prospect with Top-10 draft capital. This usage makes me queasy for Kyle Pitts' rest of season outlook, as he was already seeing a disappointingly low amount of routes per game prior to the hamstring injury.
• Put out trade offers for Kyler Murray this week. He has been a massive disappointment in fantasy this year, averaging only 19 fantasy points per game. However, he gets a date with the Seahawks in Week 6, who have the NFL's worst secondary, and then DeAndre Hopkins returns in Week 7. He has a strong chance to join Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, and Lamar Jackson in the super elite tier of fantasy QBs rest of season.
• Kareem Hunt is a great trade target in fantasy football. Hunt is tied for second among all RBs with 20 combined red zone carries/targets. Despite this, Hunt is only the RB24 in PPR fantasy points per game. He was aggressively ranked in Week 5, and will get the same treatment again in Week 6.

We hope you enjoyed reading through our 33 fantasy takeaways from Week 5. Be on the lookout for Josh Larky's full Week 5 fantasy rankings, dropping tomorrow afternoon.

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Josh Larky

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Josh Larky is the Director of Fantasy and Gambling at The 33rd Team.  He joins us with a unique blend of educational and professional experience.