Fantasy & Betting

12/18/24

11 min read

2024 Fantasy Football: Week 16 Rankings For Every Position

By C.H. Herrmann

Fantasy Writer

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If you’re reading this, chances are your fantasy football team is either in the semi-finals or the beginning of a two-week championship. Regardless of structure, welcome to the hard part.

You’ve reached the part of the schedule that only a fraction of the millions of managers who play fantasy annually even get to. The title is within sight. Every choice between now and Christmas weekend can be the difference between bragging rights and tucking your tail.

We’ve got plenty of injury news to go over and interesting research to discuss, so let’s not delay any further.

Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings

Week 16 Quarterback Rankings

Quick Takeaways

• Patrick Mahomes II is dealing with a high ankle sprain and is officially considered "week-to-week." The fact that the Chiefs are set to play in two games on short weeks, including a Saturday contest vs. the Houston Texans and again on Christmas Day against the Pittsburgh Steelers, makes projecting his availability tough. It’s conceivable that coach Andy Reid and company opt to have backup Carson Wentz shoulder Week 16 responsibilities to preserve Mahomes. I think it’s safe to operate under the assumption that managers will be without the former NFL MVP for the semi-finals.
• The Seattle Seahawks are reportedly "optimistic" about QB Geno Smith’s knee testing results following Sunday night’s contest vs. the Green Bay Packers. Coach Mike MacDonald shared after the game that the veteran may be able to practice this week and suit up for Week 16, leaving the disaster that was backup Sam Howell to remain on the bench. You’re probably not starting Smith outside of Superflex formats, but this is excellent news for the Seattle pass-catchers like Jaxon Smith-Njigba or DK Metcalf.

Trending Up

• Don’t worry, everyone. The x-rays that Josh Allen had on his shoulder following Week 15’s victory against the Detroit Lions came back clean. He will be available to play and has been boasting Herculean-like efforts through the past two weeks, averaging 352 passing yards and 75 rushing yards per game, according to FantasyData. The perhaps soon-to-be NFL MVP should keep up his string of domination in Week 16 against a New England Patriots secondary that ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA in 2024, per FTN. The reality of this semi-final round is that unless you’re the Allen manager, luck will need to help you pull off an improbable disadvantage.
• Since Week 12, Baker Mayfield ranks sixth among all quarterbacks in EPA per dropback, according to TruMedia. The veteran is slinging the ball well of late, posting an average of 278 passing yards per game (sixth among quarterbacks) with a 101.9 passer rating in that same span. A relatively decent matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (19th in pass defense DVOA) colors a solid opportunity for Mayfield to continue his impressive streak and help managers through to the next round.
• Those who felt nervous about Jalen Hurts entering the playoffs ought to be pleased by the results he’s put up during the past two games. The dual-threat speedster is recording 199 passing yards per game with an average of two passing scores, and he's contributed as a rusher (52 yards per game). Here’s to hoping you never benched Hurts and that he’s continuing to be trusted this deep into December.

Trending Down

• The Pittsburgh Steelers offense has not been the same without WR George Pickens (hamstring) in the lineup. Granted, last week’s contest against a stout Eagles secondary didn’t help matters, but Russell Wilson is averaging just 24 pass attempts for 149 yards during the past couple of weeks sans Pickens. The offense as a whole ranks 28th in Offensive Pass EPA (-4.26) in this span and sorely needs the return of its WR1 to be functional for fantasy purposes. It’s best that managers keep an eye on the injury reports this week to see if Pickens can return for Saturday’s contest against the Baltimore Ravens.

Week 16 Running Back Rankings

Quick Takeaways

• David Montgomery suffered a torn MCL in Week 16’s loss to the Bills. This absence will leave some room for a player to step in and receive touches, but the likeliest outcome is that we see Jahmyr Gibbs take on a substantial role for the remainder of the season. 
• Nick Chubb, who sustained a broken foot in Week 16, is effectively done for the season. We’ll talk more about Jerome Ford in a bit, but he will be the presumed starter for the rest of the way.
• Alvin Kamara left Week 15 with a groin injury in the third quarter and did not return. Backup Kendre Miller shouldered the workload for the remainder of the game and looks like a league-winning gem if he’s still on your waiver wire.

Trending Up

• In the past eight weeks, De’Von Achane has seen obscenely high receiving usage. Among wide receivers, he’d rank 11th in receptions (47) and 28th in targets (51) in that span, per Fantasy Points Data. His raw receiving production (catches + receiving yards) amounts to a 9.8 PPR point cushion. For context, that would be the equivalent of having an average game from New York Giants WR Wan’Dale Robinson automatically added to Achane’s weekly rushing totals. How’s that for a fun fantasy cheat code?
• I don’t have words to describe what Rico Dowdle has achieved in the past three weeks. The former UDFA leads all backs in rushing yards per game (130.7), third in carries per game (21.7), and ninth in snap share (73.1 percent). The Cowboys leaning on Dowdle this much, akin to how the Los Angeles Rams lean on Kyren Williams, is pure fantasy gold. Don’t let his ranking of RB19 dissuade you; this is a bonafide starter.

Potential Breakout

• As described in this week’s waiver article, Jerome Ford has averaged 13.5 touches per game with 62.6 scrimmage yards and 11.7 PPR points per game in 21 games without Nick Chubb since last year. This isn’t the first time fantasy managers have dealt with a prolonged Chubb absence; the results should be familiar. In case you’ve forgotten, these are the results managers should expect from Ford—a solid RB2/flex option for the stretch run.

Week 16 Wide Receiver Rankings

Quick Takeaways

• According to head coach Mike McDaniel, Jaylen Waddle (knee) isn’t considered to have a “major” injury and should be able to avoid surgery. A positive update indeed, and someone who’ll be worth monitoring ahead of Week 16 vs. the San Francisco 49ers.
• Xavier Legette is considered "week-to-week" with a groin injury and will likely miss Week 16, per head coach Dave Canales.

Trending Up

• It turns out Brian Thomas Jr. doesn’t need QB Trevor Lawrence in the lineup to be an impactful fantasy asset. Through the past month, the former LSU wideout ranks seventh among receivers in PPR points per game (20.4) with averages of 6.8 receptions and 87.2 receiving yards per game. He holds a 46.7 percent air yards share in this span, which ranks tied for third with fellow first-year pass-catcher Marvin Harrison Jr.
• Speaking of Harrison Jr. now feels like a good time to remind folks that he’ll be going up against the Carolina Panthers this weekend, a secondary that ranks 30th in pass defense DVOA this season and allows an average of 72 receiving yards per game to opposing teams’ WR1s. He and the rest of this Cardinals’ passing game have been disappointing, but the Week 16 draw is about as good as it gets.
• Jalen McMillan has balled out lately, averaging 6.5 targets, 4.5 catches, and 67 receiving yards per game during the past two weeks. Digging into the numbers a bit further, he’s registered a 76.9 percent route participation, 30.3 percent air yards share, and a 21.4 percent target share, ranking second on the team behind Mike Evans in each category. For context, no other Bucs player has a route participation of more than 70 percent during this period.

Trending Down

• Well, Jameis Winston got benched. The Cleveland Browns signal-caller has been plagued by turnovers of late and was replaced in Week 15 by backup Dorian Thompson-Robinson to end the contest against the Chiefs. What would a Thompson-Robinson offense look like compared to Winston?
• Across two seasons in the league, Thompson-Robinson has played substantial snaps in four games. In those contests, the ex-UCLA standout has averaged 125.5 passing yards per game on 33 attempts per game. The likelihood that this offense comes anywhere close to supporting viable pass-catchers is extremely low with Thompson-Robinson; hence, you’ll see names like Jerry Jeudy ranked so low. This section merely reminds managers that the fun-loving, charged-up Browns offense is likely behind us.

Week 16 Tight End Rankings

Quick Takeaways

• TE Zach Ertz is in the NFL concussion protocol, per coach Dan Quinn. Ertz's absence could open an opportunity for rookie Ben Sinnott. Still, the possibility of fantasy relevance might not be high enough to be trustworthy for the playoffs. However, this is interesting news for dynasty managers, as Ertz is 34 and in the final year of his contract. Even if you don’t pick him up and play him, at least keep an eye out for Sinnott.

Trending Up

• Here is a good opportunity to revisit why Brenton Strange could be your league-winning tight end. In five games without starter Evan Engram (Week 2-5, Week 15), Strange has posted an average of 4.6 receptions, 38.6 receiving yards, and 10.9 PPR points per game. For context, if we extrapolate those 10.9 points per game across the whole season, that would be enough for Strange to rank as the TE7 in 2024. Now that Engram is done for the year with a torn labrum, it’s time to get Strange into lineups.

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C.H. Herrmann

Fantasy Writer

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C.H. 'Herms' Herrmann is a fantasy writer for The 33rd Team, leveraging his extensive experience from previous roles as a fantasy analyst and NFL writer at Draft Sharks, FantasyPros, ClutchPoints, and SB Nation. A respected voice in the fantasy football community, Herms' insights and accuracy have earned them the distinction of being the No. 1 most accurate DST ranker in FantasyPros’ ECR Draft Rankings in the 2023 season. Herms has worked in media since 2020.