Fantasy & Betting

12/27/24

4 min read

Fantasy Football 2024: NFL Week 17 Rankings & Start-Sit Picks

By C.H. Herrmann

Fantasy Writer

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This is it — the matchup for all the marbles. 

NFL Week 17 marks the end of the fantasy season in many leagues. It’s the championship game that settles the debate among your coworkers, family, or friends as to which one of you is the sharpest football mind this year, and the importance of this contest is obvious.

No do-overs. Once the title game happens, there’s no rewind button. You either win or you don’t.

Are you ready to become the champion? Allow me to help you by breaking down Week 17 position-by-position rankings and giving some of the best starts and sits picks.

NFL Week 17 Fantasy Football Rankings

Week 17 Quarterback Rankings

Week 17 Quarterback Starts

• Bo Nix, Denver Broncos (@ CIN)
• Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs CAR)
• Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (@ SF)

Trusting a rookie in the fantasy finals? Yep, it’s a solid plan if you’ve got someone like Bo Nix around. His Week 17 matchup features a Bengals secondary that ranks 27th in pass defense DVOA, per FTN and allows the sixth-highest touchdown rate (5.1 percent) and the seventh-most passing yards (231.6) per game to opposing quarterbacks, according to Pro Football Reference.

A similarly good matchup exists for Baker Mayfield this week, as the Panthers rank 30th in pass defense DVOA and allow the sixth-most fantasy points per game (19.8) to opposing quarterbacks in 2024, per FantasyPros. The emergence of rookie wideout Jalen McMillan has paid dividends in Tampa Bay, and all should feel comfortable rolling with Mayfield on their quest for fantasy gold.

As for Goff, the Lions have been throwing considerably more often of late. In fact, Goff hasn’t had a game with fewer than 30 pass attempts since early November. He ranks as the QB4 in points per game (26.3) over the last month and should be trusted in any matchup at this point.

Week 17 Quarterback Sits

• Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers (@ MIN)
• Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (@ LAR)
• Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (@ NYG)

The fact here is that Love just isn’t throwing the ball a lot. The young signal-caller is averaging 23.8 attempts per game over the past six weeks, and the Packers have been significantly run-heavy with a Pass Rate Over Expectation (PROE) of -3.8 percent in that span, according to Fantasy Points Data. Try and shoot a little higher on someone who’s expected to see greater volume.

Murray has averaged a mere 246 passing yards per game with a 2:3 ratio of interceptions to touchdowns over the past five weeks. The Rams' defense has allowed fewer than 200 passing yards in three out of their last five contests, and aside from a monster performance from Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen in Week 14, opposing quarterbacks have averaged just 11.6 fantasy points per game against this defense, per 4for4.

It’s a tougher draw than meets the eye and not exactly the right quarterback to buck the trend.

Richardson is a tempting option. Through the past five weeks, the 6’4 quarterback has averaged 51.4 rushing yards and one touchdown per game on the ground alone. Whatever he adds with his arm is just a bonus. He’s got a stellar matchup against the New York Giants (29th in pass defense DVOA, 17.3 fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks this season). 

The issue here is with trust. While Richardson has been great as a runner, he’s only achieved greater than 200 passing yards once in this span. I think Superflex managers can feel good about rolling with the second-year signal-caller, but Richardson being trusted in this big of a fantasy week in 1-QB feels too risky.

Week 17 Running Back Rankings

Week 17 Running BAck Starts

• Jerome Ford, Cleveland Browns (vs MIA)
• Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings (vs GB)
• James Conner, Arizona Cardinals (@ LAR)

Ford predictably carried the load for the Browns in their first game since Nick Chubb broke his foot, toting the ball a total of 16 times for 131 scrimmage yards. This week, he’ll go up against a Miami Dolphins defense that has allowed an average of 65.5 rushing yards per game and 19.4 PPR points per game to opposing backfields in the last month. 

It’s true that the Green Bay Packers are a tough matchup, having allowed 80 or fewer rushing yards in four of their past five games. Even so, Jones Sr. is seeing a ton of volume of late. During the past three weeks, the veteran is averaging 19.6 touch opportunities (carries + targets) per game and 94.3 scrimmage yards.

Plus, those who like a spicy revenge game narrative can feel good about this one, too.

This one’s a little tricky, considering Conner has been limited in practice all week with a knee injury. As such, we’re operating under the assumption he plays here. Managers could look to rookie Trey Benson for a quality pivot, but at any rate, Conner is playing absolutely lights out. The veteran is averaging 105.7 rushing yards per game through the past three weeks and ranks as the RB1 in PPR points per game with 26.5.

More than anything, this is a reminder of the old adage of “start your studs.”

Week 17 Running BAck Sits

• Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs TEN)
• Kendre Miller, New Orleans Saints (vs LV)

Since winning the lead back duties over teammate Travis Etienne Jr. in Week 14, Tank Bigsby has only averaged 49 rushing yards per game on 13.7 carries per.

You could certainly do worse when looking for a flex option this week, but the fact that the second-year bruiser has been inefficient and the reality that Etienne Jr. still has a role as a pass-catcher (54.4 percent route participation in the aforementioned span) spells trouble. Look elsewhere for RB2-level help.

While many were excited to see what Miller could do in a full opportunity without Alvin Kamara (groin) in the lineup, the former TCU back accomplished very little last Monday night against the Packers. In fact, it was Miller’s teammate Jordan Mims who recorded the highest snap share (43.4 percent) of anyone in the New Orleans Saints backfield.

It’s just too much of a jumble in New Orleans right now to trust any particular back, even in a soft matchup against the Raiders (21st in run defense DVOA).

Week 17 Wide Receiver Rankings

Week 17 Wide REceiver Starts

• Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos (@ CIN)
• Jalen McMillan, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs CAR)
• Brian Thomas Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars (vs TEN)

For nearly all of the same reasons that you should feel good about starting Nix, Denver Broncos WR Courtland Sutton is an excellent play for Week 17. The Bengals’ secondary is soft and has allowed an average of 24.6 PPR points per game to opposing wide receiving corps in the past month. 

Since breaking out in Week 14, Buccaneers rookie Jalen McMillan has led the team with a 77.4 route participation rate with an average of 6.3 targets and 63.7 receiving yards per game. He’s in a great spot to go off again, going up against a Carolina Panthers defense that, throughout the previous four weeks, has allowed an average of 34.6 PPR points per game to the opponent’s wide receiver rooms.

There’s plenty of room for both McMillan and teammate Mike Evans to feast on Sunday.

Speaking of dominant rookies, have you seen how good Brian Thomas Jr. has been for the Jacksonville Jaguars?

In the past month, the former LSU standout led the team with 12.2 targets and 99.8 receiving yards per game, netting an average of 24.0 PPR points per game that stands fourth-best at the position in that span. No matter who the Jaguars are playing, the one thing we know is that the acronymous BTJ is going to get his.

Week 17 Wide REceiver Sits

• Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers (@ MIN)
• Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals (@ LAR)

On the surface, a player with a 15.2 percent target share during the past six weeks doesn’t sound that terrible. But when you remember all of the points from before about how Jordan Love and the Packers aren’t throwing the ball terribly often, you realize that Reed’s share of work every week in this span turns out to be 3.7 targets per game. 

Truthfully, you shouldn’t be starting any Green Bay pass-catcher in the fantasy title week, but Reed just happens to be the most noteworthy name to pick on and illustrate that point more.

Despite receiving a whopping 54.5 percent air yards share and 23.1 percent target share in the Cardinals’ offense through the past month, the rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. has done squat with his opportunities. The son of the Hall of Fame receiver of the same name is averaging just 3.8 receptions and 45 receiving yards per game in that span. 

A deeper dive into why Harrison Jr. hasn’t been good can be saved for another day, but for managers in title contention, that information is all you need to know.

Week 17 Tight End Rankings

Week 17 Tight End Starts

• Chigoziem Okonkwo, Tennessee Titans (@ JAC)
• Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions (@ SF)

In the past two weeks, with QB Mason Rudolph under center, TE Chigoziem Okonkwo has emerged as the favorite target in the Tennessee Titans offense. The ex-Maryland pass-catcher has seen an average of 10.5 targets per game and is netting 16.5 PPR points per game in this span.

Managers seeking help ought to look toward the big man going up against the Jacksonville Jaguars (32nd in pass defense DVOA).

LaPorta has been a key part of the Lions’ passing game through the past three weeks, averaging 5.3 receptions and 69.3 receiving yards per game. The second-year pass-catcher is in a great spot to repeat these efforts against a San Francisco 49ers defense that’s allowed an average of 10.5 PPR points per game to opposing tight ends in the past month.

Week 17 Tight End Sits

• Zach Ertz, Washington Commanders (vs ATL)
• Tucker Kraft, Green Bay Packers (@ MIN)

I’m not exactly sure how or why this has happened, but Zach Ertz has fallen completely out of relevance in the Commanders' offense through the past two games. In this stretch, the veteran has seen four targets on a 47.3 percent route participation rate.

We’re too deep into the game now to be relying upon flimsy production like this from Ertz.

As for Kraft, I think it’s well-established by this point why we’re not really down with the Green Bay Packers passing offense. But even so, here are some numbers to color in that context. Through the past six weeks, Kraft has seen 3.5 targets per game.

In the past three games, the Minnesota Vikings have largely been very effective against opposing tight ends, holding them to just 8.9 PPR points per game.

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C.H. Herrmann

Fantasy Writer

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C.H. 'Herms' Herrmann is a fantasy writer for The 33rd Team, leveraging his extensive experience from previous roles as a fantasy analyst and NFL writer at Draft Sharks, FantasyPros, ClutchPoints, and SB Nation. A respected voice in the fantasy football community, Herms' insights and accuracy have earned them the distinction of being the No. 1 most accurate DST ranker in FantasyPros’ ECR Draft Rankings in the 2023 season. Herms has worked in media since 2020.