Analysis
10/24/23
9 min read
2023 NFL Week 7 High-Value Touch Report: Rushing and Receiving Data
I find it helpful to look at team-level data to provide context. And this week, we'll look at the raw red zone rushing attempts and targets through Week 7.
The visual below shows the top teams sorted by their combined red zone rushes and targets.
The Dallas Cowboys, Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs make sense high on this list. However, the Las Vegas Raiders and Indianapolis Colts might be a surprise within the top 10. We also find the Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints a little farther down the list of team leaders in red zone rushes and targets, making them both intriguing offenses to monitor.
We used the raw numbers for red zone data, but the sample becomes smaller for goal-to-go (GTG) opportunities. The Miami Dolphins have the most GTG drives at 23, but the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans are tied for last with five. Because teams run more in GTG situations, the visual below shows the leaders in rush percentage.
The Seattle Seahawks are initially a surprise until we digest their lead running back's usage. Though the Cleveland Browns have a higher rush percentage in GTG situations, they only have six drives, indicating a noisy, smaller sample. We want to look at team-level data before diving into player analysis, especially when considering potential backup running backs or bench stashes. Use the team-level red zone and GTG usage as a tiebreaker for players to stash.
Below, we’ll examine red zone GTG touches and opportunities. The context for these touches is important, so we’ll consider the potential game script that led to the usage. This information helps identify which players might be on the verge of scoring more touchdowns and fantasy points — and which players aren’t.
Given the small sample size, we sometimes find that players don’t regress quickly or that the data becomes more noisy than meaningful. The information will be broken down by red zone and GTG rushing and receiving data to find usage patterns and expected fantasy points.
Red Zone Rushing
Thursday night, Alvin Kamara had a record-setting level of volume. Since he entered the league in 2017, Kamara has been one of two running backs with at least 15 rushes and 12 or more targets in multiple games. The other back is Melvin Gordon; each has had two games reaching that threshold since 2017.
Kamara logged six red zone carries, four of which came in GTG opportunities. The Saints’ offense ran through Kamara and Chris Olave, with Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed contributing in spurts. Though Kamara's career-worst -4.0 fantasy points over expectation (FPOE) before Week 7 suggests inefficiency, he garners an elite volume. His efficiency could regress, and the touchdowns should come soon.
The New England Patriots beat the Bills in Week 7 after concerns about New England's offense. Ezekiel Elliott tied for first with six red zone carries, three of which came in GTG opportunities. Though neither Elliott nor Rhamondre Stevenson ran well against the Bills. Still, Elliott the veteran scored a two-yard touchdown in the first quarter.
The graphic below shows the red zone rushing leaders in Weeks 6 and 7, including the Patriots’ duo.
This was the second game in a row where Elliott matched or bested Stevenson in red zone rush share. In Week 6, Stevenson and Elliott tied at 50 percent, but the veteran edged him in Week 7 (75 percent vs. 25 percent).
Hopefully, it's more noise than actionable news for Stevenson, especially because he bests Elliott in season-long rush share (50.9 percent vs. 35.1 percent) and target share (12.3 percent vs. 7 percent). It's worth noting Stevenson dealt with an ankle injury earlier in the week, which could be related to his usage.
The Atlanta Falcons’ Fantasy Frustrations
On social media, there have been tons of memes about Falcons coach Arthur Smith establishing the run and hardly using his most talented players. But the team still wins close games. Bijan Robinson hardly played in Week 7, but reports surfaced that was because of a headache.
That's real life and not the frustrating part. What is frustrating is the Falcons running the ball 38 times (second-most in Week 7) against a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that ranks 11th in defensive rush success rate and 12th in explosive rush percentage.
When the game is within seven points (behind or ahead), the Falcons rank sixth in rushing attempts per game. That aligns with the sixth-highest neutral game script rush rate at 47 percent in Weeks 1-6. With that data, it's unsurprising to find RB Tyler Allgeier with six red zone carries and QB Desmond Ridder with four. Allgeier only had one carry in GTG situations, and Ridder had three, including a short-yardage rushing score.
Hopefully, Robinson's headaches and health issues won't linger. However, the Falcons' usage without him gave us a quick view of Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson, as seen above. Allgeier garnered a 55.3 percent rush share and a 13.6 percent target share in Week 7, while Patterson had a 26.3 percent rush share and zero targets. Look to acquire Allgeier or Robinson because the Falcons have the second-most-favorable schedule from Weeks 14 to 18.
Red Zone Receiving
Terry McLaurin led Week 7 with four red zone targets, and Thomas, Mark Andrews and Drake London tied for second with three. Andrews scored two touchdowns on three targets as Lamar Jackson dominated in Week 7. Though we didn't cover Jackson in the red zone rushing leaders, he had four in Week 7, including one score, boosting him to 18 red zone carries in 2023.
In Week 7, London led the Falcons with seven targets (28 percent target share), while Kyle Pitts had four. After consecutive 300-yard passing games for Ridder, he passed efficiently for 250 yards and 10 yards per attempt this past week.
The Falcons struggle to convert red zone drives into touchdowns, evidenced by the red zone efficiency chart below.
On the season, the Falcons rank 23rd in red zone efficiency, meaning they score touchdowns on 47.8 percent of their red zone drives. While London possesses the talent for more, his 11.9 expected points per game (EP/G) ranks 34th before Week 7, aligning with his rookie season (11.8). That indicates a similar usage for London, meaning the frustrations will stick around unless we start valuing him as a WR3 with some upside.
Goal-to-Go Rushing
Jalen Hurts continues to dominate and steal goal-line opportunities from D'Andre Swift, although Kenneth Gainwell scored once on his three GTG rushes.
Hurts led Week 7 with six GTG carries and ranks second (16) behind Kenneth Walker (20) in 2023. Walker and Hurts keep scoring at a high rate of their GTG rushes, with 2.67 carries per touchdown for Hurts and 3.33 for Walker.
Among rushers with 10 carries in GTG situations, Hurts ranks third in rushes per touchdown, and Walker ranks fifth. While we might expect Hurts and Walker to slow down, they're talented players with tons of high-value touches. The Eagles have the highest goal-to-go rush percentage at 77.3 percent and the most red zone rushing attempts in 2023. Keep stashing Gainwell and consider Rashaad Penny or Boston Scott in deep leagues, given the high-value touches on the ground.
One of the wilder games in Week 7 involved the Browns and the Colts with a 77-point total. The betting totals hovered around a measly 40.5. Kareem Hunt had three GTG carries, scoring two touchdowns. Jerome Ford scored a 69-yard touchdown within the first minute but left with an ankle injury. Ford had 60 percent of the team's rush attempts, with Hunt at 33.3 percent in the first half. However, Pierre Strong bested Hunt in rush share in the second half (44.4 percent vs. 27.8 percent).
With Hunt rostered in most leagues, look at Strong via waivers because of his explosiveness. Strong has elite speed with a 92nd percentile Speed Score and an 81st percentile Explosion Score.
Christian McCaffrey played Monday night after early week concerns due to an oblique injury. He had four red zone carries, two of which came in GTG situations, and a rushing touchdown. He had the fifth-highest rush share at 68.2 percent, with a season-low 10.3 percent target share in Week 7.
With Brock Purdy rushing 22.7 percent of the time, McCaffrey's usage remained similar even with injury concerns, though his overall play volume dipped against the Minnesota Vikings. Due to three turnovers, the San Francisco 49ers ran 53 plays in Week 7, compared with 66 per game in Weeks 1-6.
Keep stashing Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason because the 49ers rank sixth in rushing success rate and because of the high-value touches via the ground game. However, it's noteworthy that Mitchell was the only other 49ers running back with a snap (4) in Week 7.
Goal-to-Go Receiving
Seven pass catchers had two GTG targets in Week 7: Chris Godwin, Thomas, David Njoku, Gerald Everett, Jakobi Meyers, Tyreek Hill and Jordan Addison. Only Everett and Meyers scored a touchdown on their GTG opportunities. Meyers moved into a tie for first with seven GTG targets in 2023, while Davante Adams sits second with six.
The Raiders rank second in red zone targets behind the Chiefs and have the fifth-most red zone carries plus targets, as seen in the visual below.
The above data says we want to attack the Raiders' passing game options given their red zone usage. The Raiders scored touchdowns on 50 percent of their GTG drives (No. 27) and ranked 25th in red zone efficiency (41.7 percent). Regardless of the inefficiencies, the Raiders remain one of the most consolidated offenses among Meyers, Adams and Josh Jacobs.
We’ll close with Addison’s explosion game on Monday night. Addison earned a 22 percent target share, with two explosive touchdowns of 20 and 60 receiving yards. In the past two weeks, Addison is averaging 33 routes per game, tied with T.J. Hockenson and behind K.J. Osborn.
Hockenson and Addison fared well in targets per route run, evidenced by Hockenson at 30.3 percent and Addison at 22.7 percent in Weeks 6 and 7. Meanwhile, Osborn sits at 14.5 percent.
The visual below shows the leaders in pass rate and explosive plays in Weeks 1-5.
Though a high-volume passing attack is not related to GTG touches, it’s worth noting for the Vikings. In Weeks 1-5, Minnesota averaged its highest pass rate at 70.5 percent and had the third-most explosive play percentage at 13 percent.
That ranked them behind the Dolphins (18.8 percent) and the 49ers (13.2 percent).
The visual above shows the leaders in pass rate plus explosive play percentage in Weeks 6 and 7.
In the past two weeks, the Vikings’ pass rate and explosive plays slightly dipped, as evidenced by the 64.5 percent pass rate (No. 5) and 10.7 percent explosive play rate (No. 16). It seems, Addison is providing a go-to target for Kirk Cousins without Justin Jefferson in the past two games. However, this could partly be small sample size noise.
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