Analysis
10/7/23
11 min read
2023 NFL Week 5 DFS Main Slate Tournament Analysis
If you are new to DFS, check out our introductory pieces, such as DFS 101, Contest Selection, Stacking, Rostership and Lineup Construction.
Below, we will take a look at some of the double stacks, single stacks, and mini stacks I will be looking to take advantage of this weekend. If you have any questions, ask them on our 33rd Team Discord.
If you haven’t already, check out the Cover 5 show on YouTube.
More Week 5 DFS: Top Plays | How to Handle Chalk
Week 5 DFS Slate Analysis
Double Stacks
- Stack: QB Patrick Mahomes; RB Isiah Pacheco; TE Travis Kelce
- Runback: WR Justin Jefferson
Approaching the chalkiest game on the slate, I'm taking a unique path by pairing Patrick Mahomes with Isiah Pacheco. A running back has had over 50 yards receiving both times that Mahomes and Minnesota Vikings DC Brian Flores have played each other. I'm banking on this trend continuing in our matchup, with Pacheco set to exploit the Minnesota Vikings’ aggressive approach. Mahomes, as we know, is most potent when connecting with Travis Kelce, and I'm confident the Vikings' defense won't have the answers to contain him.
I am keeping it simple on the Vikings side and believe the Chiefs will not be able to contain Justin Jefferson. The Chiefs haven’t faced a wide receiver at his level this season, and Jefferson is dominating. This season, he has a huge target share against every coverage; the Chiefs love to play Cover 2 man and try to press; and Jefferson averages 4.86 yards per route run against man coverages.
- Stack: QB Lamar Jackson; WR Zay Flowers; TE Mark Andrews
Lamar Jackson is flying under the radar as one of the least-rostered quarterbacks this weekend, making him an intriguing choice for large-field contests. The Baltimore Ravens' offensive line is on the upswing with health, and recent performances by other quarterbacks against the Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense indicate vulnerability in their coverage. Notably, wide receivers Brandon Aiyuk, Nico Collins and Davante Adams each notched over 35 DK points with two touchdowns against Pittsburgh. Anticipating the Steelers' reliance on Cover 3 and Cover 4, it's worth highlighting that Jackson averages an impressive 9.2 yards per attempt against these coverages. The main catalysts for success will be Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers, and leaning on them will be pivotal in unlocking Jackson's fantasy ceiling.
In light of Kenny Pickett's injury, I'm steering clear of the Steelers' side of the ball. Nonetheless, a Jackson stack has the potential to reach a winning total while also offering a unique lineup construction, enhancing its appeal for fantasy football enthusiasts.
- Stack: QB Joshua Dobbs; WR Marquise Brown; TE Zach Ertz
- Runback: RB Joe Mixon; WR Ja’Marr Chase
This game has all the makings of a potential shootout, and the focal point of my strategy is targeting Joshua Dobbs. Dobbs has demonstrated a knack for making the right reads and distributing the ball effectively to his play makers this season, despite top-level competition. The Cincinnati Bengals' secondary is dealing with the absence of key personnel, and their replacements are unlikely to effectively fill the void. In particular, pairing Dobbs with Marquise Brown is a strong play. Brown commands an impressive 40 percent target share and boasts a robust 3.10 yards per route run against the primary coverage looks presented by the Bengals. I will also play Zach Ertz or James Conner with him, because I want to lock into the touchdowns here.
The Bengals are somewhat limited due to Joe Burrow's calf injury, and their path to a big game hinges on their star players creating opportunities with the ball in their hands. I anticipate a heavy workload for both Joe Mixon and Ja'Marr Chase in this matchup. While Chase is a popular choice, this full-game stack approach provides a unique twist. Without Tee Higgins in the mix, Chase is set for a significant share of targets, making him a central figure in this high-scoring affair.
Single Stacks
- Stack: QB Anthony Richardson; WR Michael Pittman Jr. or WR Alec Pierce
- Runback: RB Derrick Henry and/or WR DeAndre Hopkins
The total projection for this game seems lower than it should be, making it an enticing opportunity for a big game stack, anchored by Anthony Richardson. The Tennessee Titans are poised to stifle the run game, forcing Richardson to make plays downfield. In this scenario, two primary options stand out: Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce. While Pittman Jr. provides a safer choice, Pierce is an intriguing option, running routes on a whopping 90 percent of plays and serving as the deep threat in the offense. The Titans won't allow Richardson to break containment and run, but near the red zone, they can’t stop the quarterback power.
Derrick Henry showcased his dominant form last weekend, and with this game expected to be closely contested, he's set to shine once again. The Indianapolis Colts had trouble containing him last season, and there's no reason to believe they'll fare any better this year. The Colts often employ Cover 3 coverage, and when facing this scheme, DeAndre Hopkins commands a massive 36 percent target share. This presents a significant advantage for Hopkins out wide against the Colts' defensive backs. I love running both of Henry and Hopkins when attacking this game environment.
Mini-Stacks
- NYG @ MIA
- WR Tyreek Hill or RB De’Von Achane; WR Wan’Dale Robinson
The New York Giants' defensive strategy heavily relies on Cover 0 and Cover 1, and in this particular matchup, Tyreek Hill stands out as the primary target. Hill boasts an impressive 33 percent target share and averages a remarkable 2.90 yards per route run when facing these coverages. Additionally, the Giants' struggling run defense opens the door for a significant role for De’Von Achane, who appears to have solidified his position. Considering Raheem Mostert's recent ball security issues, Achane is expected to continue delivering exceptional performance. While Achane might be a popular choice, it's entirely justified given the dynamics of this game.
On the flip side, Wan'Dale Robinson presents an excellent value opportunity in this matchup, and his price tag is notably attractive. He has quickly surpassed Parris Campbell and Sterling Shepard in just two weeks, establishing himself as a reliable option for the Giants. Robinson is priced at $3,000 and not only offers a solid floor but provides the flexibility to incorporate some top-tier players into your lineup.
- HOU @ ATL
- WR Tank Dell; RB Bijan Robinson
The Atlanta Falcons frequently employ man coverage schemes, and it's quite likely that A.J. Terrell will be tasked with covering Nico Collins, which leaves a favorable matchup for Tank Dell.
Houston Texans coach DeMeco Ryans faced off against Arthur Smith's offense when Ryans was the defensive coordinator for the San Francisco 49ers and Smith was the offensive coordinator of the Titans. In that game, Smith's team managed to amass 168 rushing yards. This year, with Smith at the helm of the Falcons and featuring Bijan Robinson in the run game, there's a strong possibility of witnessing a game-altering performance. Despite Robinson not yet securing a rushing touchdown this season, he remains one of the most dominant running backs in the league.
- PHI @ LAR
- WR A.J. Brown; WR Tutu Atwell
The Los Angeles Rams predominantly rely on Cover 3 and Cover 4 as their primary coverages. When it comes to these two coverages, A.J. Brown stands out with an impressive 35.9 percent target share and averages 2.30 yards per route run. With his expected volume — provided the Rams' offense remains competitive — we can anticipate another standout performance from Brown.
On the flip side, the Philadelphia Eagles have favored man coverage extensively in recent weeks. Against man coverage, the Rams' go-to target has been Tutu Atwell, who ranks 12th in the NFL in target share and boasts an impressive 2.90 yards per route run against man coverage. Given his exceptional speed, it's challenging to envision the Eagles' corners keeping up with him. While Cooper Kupp's return will have an impact, I believe that role in the offense is now Puka Nacua's. The key factor here is the Rams' offensive line holding up long enough to provide Atwell with the opportunity for deep targets.
- CAR @ DET
- WR Adam Thielen; RB David Montgomery
Brian Branch's absence from the Detroit Lions’ lineup is a significant factor contributing to the defensive revamp. This creates a favorable scenario for Adam Thielen, who is poised for a winning matchup in the slot. Thielen offers a dependable floor for your fantasy lineup. In this situation, there's no need to force a runback option, making it suitable to align with the popular choice of playing David Montgomery.
The Carolina Panthers have shown vulnerabilities in their run defense over the past two weekends, with both Alexander Mattison and Kenneth Walker surpassing 90 rushing yards. Montgomery, with ample touches expected, is in a prime position to exploit these weaknesses. Notably, he's had a substantial 10-day rest period following his 30-carry performance against the Packers.
- NYJ @ DEN
- RB Breece Hall; WR Courtland Sutton
Breece Hall's season performance hasn't seen him shouldering a full workload yet, but it's increasingly evident that he's the most reliable option for the New York Jets. He's been averaging an impressive four more yards per carry than RB Dalvin Cook, despite carrying the ball more frequently. Adding to his appeal, the Denver Broncos have been struggling defensively against running backs, conceding over 25 DraftKings points to opposing running backs for three consecutive weeks, with some of those backs not even logging 60 percent of the snaps. Hall is poised for a boost in touches in this game, which could significantly benefit fantasy managers.
On the other side of the field, the New York Jets' secondary is dealing with missing key players such as CBs D.J. Reed and Sauce Gardner, who won't be traveling with the team. Their absense creates a favorable situation for Courtland Sutton. While a game stack isn't necessary, Sutton represents a valuable option on the slate, and this matchup suggests he has the potential to provide the explosive performance needed to win GPPs.
Defenses
New England Patriots
Derek Carr is playing through an AC joint sprain and did not look like he could push the ball down the field. The New England Patriots' defense is going to be putting a lot of pressure on him, and at home, I believe they win this game.
New York Jets
The Jets' defense plays coverages Russell Wilson does not throw well against, and the Broncos have been a mess offensively. I will be playing Hall in any build I play the Jets defense.
Pittsburgh Steelers
In lineups where I am not attacking the Steelers' defense, I will consider playing them at the cost, knowing opposing QB Jackson can be stacked and fumble plenty in this matchup. The Steelers were embarrassed by the Texans but are now at home against their biggest rival.
Carolina Panthers
This punt defense strategy is solid due to key factors: Amon-Ra St. Brown's absence weakens the Lions' passing game, and Jahmyr Gibbs' unexpected injury adds uncertainty to their offense. The Carolina Panthers are likely to focus on stopping the Lions' run, given the team's depleted receiving corps. As 9.5-point underdogs, the Panthers will go overlooked by many fantasy players, making them an attractive, underrated defense pick.
Player Pool
| Pos. | Name | Team | OPP | DK Salary | FD Salary |
| QB | Patrick Mahomes | KC | MIN | $8,200 | $9,200 |
| QB | Lamar Jackson | BAL | PIT | $7,800 | $8,400 |
| QB | Anthony Richardson | IND | TEN | $7,000 | $8,300 |
| QB | Joshua Dobbs | ARI | CIN | $5,200 | $6,600 |
| RB | Bijan Robinson | ATL | HOU | $7,700 | $8,200 |
| RB | Derrick Henry | TEN | IND | $7,500 | $9,000 |
| RB | David Montgomery | DET | CAR | $6,600 | $8,500 |
| RB | Joe Mixon | CIN | ARI | $6,400 | $7,000 |
| RB | Raheem Mostert | MIA | NYG | $6,200 | $8,000 |
| RB | De'Von Achane | MIA | NYG | $6,100 | $7,500 |
| RB | James Conner | ARI | CIN | $5,800 | $6,500 |
| RB | Isiah Pacheco | KC | MIN | $5,700 | $6,600 |
| RB | Breece Hall | NYJ | DEN | $5,400 | $6,500 |
| RB | Gus Edwards | BAL | PIT | $5,000 | $6,000 |
| WR | Justin Jefferson | MIN | KC | $9,400 | $9,200 |
| WR | Tyreek Hill | MIA | NYG | $9,000 | $9,400 |
| WR | Cooper Kupp | LA | PHI | $8,600 | $8,500 |
| WR | A.J. Brown | PHI | LA | $8,000 | $8,200 |
| WR | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | ARI | $7,900 | $8,700 |
| WR | Michael Pittman Jr. | IND | TEN | $6,400 | $6,600 |
| WR | DeAndre Hopkins | TEN | IND | $5,700 | $6,100 |
| WR | Nico Collins | HOU | ATL | $5,600 | $7,000 |
| WR | Zay Flowers | BAL | PIT | $5,500 | $5,900 |
| WR | Courtland Sutton | DEN | NYJ | $5,400 | $6,900 |
| WR | Jordan Addison | MIN | KC | $5,300 | $5,900 |
| WR | Tutu Atwell | LA | PHI | $5,300 | $5,800 |
| WR | George Pickens | PIT | BAL | $5,200 | $6,500 |
| WR | Adam Thielen | CAR | DET | $5,100 | $6,700 |
| WR | Marquise Brown | ARI | CIN | $5,000 | $6,400 |
| WR | Tank Dell | HOU | ATL | $4,800 | $6,000 |
| WR | Josh Reynolds | DET | CAR | $4,200 | $6,300 |
| WR | Darius Slayton | NYG | MIA | $4,100 | $5,900 |
| WR | Robert Woods | HOU | ATL | $4,000 | $5,000 |
| WR | Marvin Mims Jr. | DEN | NYJ | $4,000 | $5,500 |
| WR | Michael Wilson | ARI | CIN | $3,700 | $5,300 |
| WR | Josh Downs | IND | TEN | $3,700 | $5,300 |
| WR | Jalin Hyatt | NYG | MIA | $3,600 | $4,800 |
| WR | Rashee Rice | KC | MIN | $3,600 | $5,000 |
| WR | Calvin Austin III | PIT | BAL | $3,500 | $4,800 |
| WR | Alec Pierce | IND | TEN | $3,400 | $5,200 |
| WR | Kalif Raymond | DET | CAR | $3,300 | $4,800 |
| WR | Wan'Dale Robinson | NYG | MIA | $3,000 | $4,500 |
| TE | Travis Kelce | KC | MIN | $7,600 | $8,789 |
| TE | T.J. Hockenson | MIN | KC | $6,500 | $6,800 |
| TE | Mark Andrews | BAL | PIT | $5,500 | $7,600 |
| TE | Tyler Higbee | LA | PHI | $4,100 | $5,300 |
| TE | Zach Ertz | ARI | CIN | $3,500 | $5,100 |
| TE | Durham Smythe | MIA | NYG | $3,000 | $4,800 |
| TE | Adam Trautman | DEN | NYJ | $2,700 | $4,300 |
| DST | Patriots | NE | NO | $3,100 | $4,400 |
| DST | Jets | NYJ | DEN | $3,100 | $4,200 |
| DST | Steelers | PIT | BAL | $2,700 | $3,900 |
| DST | Panthers | CAR | DET | $2,200 | $3,200 |
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