Analysis
10/5/23
5 min read
2023 NFL Week 5 Betting Preview: Green Bay Packers at Las Vegas Raiders
Packers (2-2) at Raiders (1-3)
Spread: Raiders +1
Total: 45
Weather: Indoor venue
Line Report
The spread for this contest opened as Raiders +2.5. As of Thursday morning, this line has moved to Raiders +1.
The total for this contest opened at 44 points. It has since moved up to 45 points, which has coincided with the line movement to the spread in this matchup.
Raiders Offense vs. Packers Defense
The Green Bay Packers have allowed the fifth-most rushing and receiving yards to running backs this season. Josh Jacobs is off to a slow start after leading the league in rushing and opportunities last year. So far, Jacobs is averaging just 2.7 yards per carry.
Jacobs is 11th in the league with 62 carries, but he leads all running backs in targets (26) and receiving yards (173). Jacobs still has an exceptional role, and his Monday night matchup with the Packers will be among his best of the season.
Jimmy Garoppolo missed last week because of a concussion. Assuming he’ll be a full go for Monday, he’ll take on Green Bay’s above-average pass defense. Davante Adams leads the league in target share (37.9 percent) and air yards share (55.4 percent). Adams continues to have an absolutely massive role in his second season with the Raiders.
Jakobi Meyers has already missed a game, but he’s second on the Las Vegas Raiders in target share (25 percent) and air yards share (28.9 percent). Meyers has seen 22 of his 26 targets during his two games with Garoppolo. Every other Raiders’ wide receiver or tight end has a target share below 5.4 percent.
Packers Offense vs. Raiders Defense
The Raiders’ pass defense has been better than expected through the first four games. Their run defense has been more exploitable, as they’ve allowed the eighth-most rushing yards to running backs. The Packers’ running game has been among the most disappointing units in the entire league.
Aaron Jones has only played in two games, but he has just 59 rushing yards on 14 carries. He caught a 51-yard pass on opening day but otherwise has three receptions for 31 receiving yards. A.J. Dillon is averaging 2.7 yards per carry on his 44 rushing attempts. When Jones returned to action last Thursday night, Dillion only saw five carries and one target.
Jordan Love is having an interesting season; his eight passing touchdowns are fifth in the league. He’s added another two scores on the ground so far. Love’s 901 passing yards are 15th in the league, and his 56.1 percent completion percentage is 40th.
Christian Watson missed the season's first three games and only saw four targets last week. Watson is Green Bay’s most dynamic pass catcher, so expect his role to grow. Romeo Doubs leads the team in targets, receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, target share and air yards share. Rookie Jayden Reed is second in each of those categories. It’s only been one game, but Reed’s role was negatively impacted by Watson’s return.
Rookie TE Luke Musgrave has been a factor so far, but he suffered a concussion last Thursday night. The long week gives Musgrave a better chance to return to action against the Raiders.
What You’re Betting On
If you’re betting on the Raiders, you’re building that bet around Jacobs and Adams driving this offense. Jacobs is in a plus matchup, while Adams faces his former team for the first time. Las Vegas might have taken down the Los Angeles Chargers last week if Garoppolo was active, so his return is an obvious positive.
Maxx Crosby is an elite pass rusher and Las Vegas' best defensive player by a mile. If you’re betting on the Raiders, you’re building that bet around their offensive stars playing up in prime time, but you likely need Crosby to end a few Packers’ drives.
If you’re betting on Green Bay, you are betting on the more talented roster. Las Vegas has a strong core, but the Packers’ defense is a far more complete group. If you’re betting on Green Bay, you can build that bet around its talented defense.
You still don’t want to build your bet around Love’s offense. He’s had his moments through the first four games, but his production has been touchdown-dependent. Love can be the driving force behind a Green Bay win, but that’s not something you want to bank on just yet. The Packers’ running game will almost certainly see better days, but you don’t want to count on that happening this week.
Score Prediction: Raiders 27, Packers 24
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
ATS 2023: 10-10
Props 2022: 60-40
Props 2023: 7-7
Ryan is the associate director of fantasy and betting at The 33rd Team. Ryan has been covering NFL betting markets for five years. Follow Ryan @RyanReynoldsNFL on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook.
