Analysis
9/29/23
4 min read
2023 NFL Week 4 Betting Preview: Seattle Seahawks at New York Giants
Seahawks (2-1) at Giants (1-2)
Spread: Giants +1
Total: 47
Weather: No current concerns
Line Report
The spread for this contest has bounced around throughout the week. The line opened as Giants +1 before moving all the way to Giants -1.5 midweek. Thursday evening, the line was back to Giants +1.
The total opened at 45 points but gradually rose to its current mark of 47.
Giants Offense vs. Seahawks Defense
The New York Giants scored 31 points in the second half of their Week 2 game in Arizona. New York has only scored 12 points outside of that surge over their other 10 quarters.
Saquon Barkley returned to practice on Thursday despite missing Week 3 with a sprained ankle. Even if Barkley can go, he won’t be at full strength. In his absence, Matt Breida and Gary Brightwell each had four carries against the San Francisco 49ers. If Barkley suits up Monday night, expect Breida and Brightwell to supplement him. If Barkley misses the game, expect Breida and Brightwell to split opportunities against Seattle.
Against the Dallas Cowboys and 49ers, Daniel Jones threw for fewer than 150 passing yards. Against the Arizona Cardinals, he had 321 passing yards. The Seattle Seahawks have given up the second-most passing yards to wide receivers this season.
Darius Slayton is the only Giants receiver with more than 100 receiving yards this year. Rookie Jalin Hyatt has the second-most receiving yards among Giants’ receivers with 89. Hyatt has reached that number on just two receptions.
Seattle has particularly struggled against slot receivers this year. Parris Campbell leads the Giants in slot snaps, where he has 47 receiving yards on 11 receptions. Wan’Dale Robinson returned to action last week, where he saw five targets on just 11 snaps. Expect Robinson to cut into Campbell’s slot-heavy role as the season progresses.
Tight end Darren Waller leads the Giants in targets (20), receptions (12), and receiving yards (132). Waller is effectively New York’s primary receiver, seeing roughly a third of his snaps in the slot.
Seahawks Offense vs. Giants Defense
After a brutal showing on opening day against the Los Angeles Rams, Seattle scored 37 points in each of its past two games. The Seahawks can beat you in the air or on the ground. Kenneth Walker III is 12th in the league in rushing, while the Giants have allowed the fourth-most rushing yards to running backs.
DK Metcalf leads the team in receiving yards (234) and receptions (15). Tyler Lockett is second on the team in both categories, but he’s Seattle’s targets leader with 22. Rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba has nine catches on 14 targets for 57 receiving yards.
The Giants have allowed the second-most receiving yards to tight ends. Noah Fant has caught eight of nine targets for 97 receiving yards. Will Dissly has caught all five of his targets for 52 receiving yards.
What You’re Betting On
If you’re betting on the Giants, you are betting on two core concepts. The first is that Jones carries the offense against a Seahawks pass defense that has struggled early this season. Jones is third among quarterbacks in rushing yards, and you could argue that’s his most difference-making trait.
The second is that the Giants’ underachieving pass rush plays their best game of the season against Seattle’s banged-up offensive line. If New York can achieve consistent pressure, Geno Smith struggles in muddy pockets.
If you’re betting on the Seahawks, you have a few paths to success. The first is that Seattle has a very talented offense that can beat New York on the ground or in the air. In particular, the Seahawks' talented wide receiver trio could be a real problem for New York.
As long as Smith plays well, Seattle is well-positioned to meet expectations on offense. The Seahawks' pass defense has struggled so far this season, but it gets a manageable opponent in the Giants. New York has a below-average group of wide receivers, which could help Seattle’s secondary get back on track.
Score Prediction: Giants 26, Seahawks 24
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 48-32
ATS 2023: 7-8
Props 2022: 60-40
Props 2023: 5-4
Ryan is the associate director of fantasy and betting at The 33rd Team. Ryan has been covering NFL betting markets for five years. Follow Ryan @RyanReynoldsNFL on Twitter, Instagram or Facebook.
