Fantasy
12/21/23
8 min read
2023 NFL Week 16 Fantasy Football Projections
At The 33rd Team, we use machine learning to project player performance and fantasy production week-to-week to help you make well-informed decisions about your lineups.
In last week’s article, we were notably higher than the consensus on Jake Browning (finished QB8) and Juwan Johnson (finished TE10). At the same time, we were lower than the consensus on Tua Tagovailoa (finished QB23) and A.J. Brown (finished WR41). One of the alarming mishaps was ranking Antonio Gibson as the RB9; the Commanders could not get him involved effectively, and he finished as the RB36.
Below are the model’s projections for Week 16 by position. Each player is listed with relevant projected stats, their projected points in half-PPR and PPR leagues and their projected rank. Some short commentary is provided for some notable players for whom the model is well ahead of consensus.
Disclaimer: We do not recommend using these projections for the betting markets. The model regresses outlier predictions and performances back to an average. Though this model can aid in betting decision-making, it wasn’t modeled with that in mind.
Week 16 Projections
Quarterbacks
| Team | Player | Atts | Comp | Yards | TDs | Carries | Yards | TDs | Fantasy Points | Fantasy Points (PPR) |
| Buffalo Bills | Josh Allen | 36.9 | 25.8 | 294.4 | 2.4 | 5.2 | 27.2 | 0.3 | 24 | 24 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | Jalen Hurts | 32 | 21.8 | 243.8 | 1.7 | 10.7 | 49.7 | 0.7 | 23.9 | 23.9 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | Patrick Mahomes | 38.8 | 26.2 | 270.3 | 2.5 | 3.9 | 23.3 | 0.1 | 21.8 | 21.8 |
| Chicago Bears | Justin Fields | 36.7 | 23 | 266.8 | 1.6 | 7.6 | 44.2 | 0.4 | 21.9 | 21.9 |
| Los Angeles Rams | Matthew Stafford | 36.3 | 22.5 | 287 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 2 | 0.1 | 18.6 | 18.6 |
| Dallas Cowboys | Dak Prescott | 33.8 | 23.8 | 264.7 | 2 | 2.4 | 8.7 | 0.2 | 18.5 | 18.5 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | Jake Browning | 36.4 | 23.7 | 244.3 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 19 | 0.2 | 17.3 | 17.3 |
| Atlanta Falcons | Taylor Heinicke | 33.4 | 20 | 241.2 | 2 | 2.3 | 9.4 | 0.1 | 17.4 | 17.4 |
| Detroit Lions | Jared Goff | 35.6 | 24.2 | 272.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 1 | 0.1 | 17 | 17 |
| Minnesota Vikings | Nick Mullens | 38.5 | 23.1 | 238.4 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 5.1 | 0 | 16.8 | 16.8 |
| Green Bay Packers | Jordan Love | 33.2 | 20.9 | 232.2 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 15.5 | 0.1 | 16.9 | 16.9 |
| Washington Commanders | Sam Howell | 43.4 | 27.2 | 232.2 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 21.8 | 0.1 | 16.3 | 16.3 |
| Baltimore Ravens | Lamar Jackson | 28.3 | 18.4 | 185 | 1 | 8.2 | 42 | 0.5 | 17 | 17 |
| Denver Broncos | Russell Wilson | 31.3 | 22.7 | 206.9 | 2 | 3.6 | 17.5 | 0.1 | 16.6 | 16.6 |
| Miami Dolphins | Tua Tagovailoa | 33.5 | 20.9 | 246.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 0.1 | 16.4 | 16.4 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Baker Mayfield | 33.1 | 21.3 | 246.2 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 8.4 | 0.1 | 16.4 | 16.4 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | Easton Stick | 35.6 | 20.5 | 230.6 | 1.6 | 4 | 19.9 | 0.1 | 15.9 | 15.9 |
| Seattle Seahawks | Geno Smith | 32.3 | 20.2 | 237.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 6 | 0.1 | 15.8 | 15.8 |
| San Francisco 49ers | Brock Purdy | 30.2 | 21.2 | 236.9 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 3.4 | 0.1 | 15.9 | 15.9 |
| Arizona Cardinals | Kyler Murray | 29.9 | 18.7 | 197.3 | 1.1 | 5.1 | 27.4 | 0.4 | 15.9 | 15.9 |
| Cleveland Browns | Joe Flacco | 35.3 | 19.4 | 215.1 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 6.4 | 0.2 | 14.8 | 14.8 |
| Carolina Panthers | Bryce Young | 38.9 | 21.4 | 197.9 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 15.3 | 0.1 | 14.6 | 14.6 |
| New Orleans Saints | Derek Carr | 35 | 22.8 | 229.7 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 4.7 | 0.1 | 14.7 | 14.7 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | Trevor Lawrence | 35.4 | 21.2 | 227.9 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 10.3 | 0.1 | 14 | 14 |
| Indianapolis Colts | Gardner Minshew | 34.7 | 21.7 | 219.7 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 8.9 | 0.1 | 13.9 | 13.9 |
| Houston Texans | Case Keenum | 33.9 | 19.5 | 189.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 6.3 | 0 | 13.5 | 13.5 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | Mitch Trubisky | 34.7 | 19.9 | 227.8 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 3.2 | 0.2 | 13.2 | 13.2 |
| Tennessee Titans | Ryan Tannehill | 33.3 | 20 | 218.8 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 9.2 | 0.1 | 13.1 | 13.1 |
| New York Jets | Zach Wilson | 30 | 18.8 | 183.4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 8.7 | 0.1 | 12.9 | 12.9 |
| New York Giants | Tommy DeVito | 30.9 | 19.3 | 201.9 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 8.7 | 0.2 | 12.7 | 12.7 |
| New England Patriots | Bailey Zappe | 35.8 | 20.6 | 182.4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 5.3 | 0.1 | 11.7 | 11.7 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | Aidan O'Connell | 30 | 18.8 | 185.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4.7 | 0.1 | 12 | 12 |
Taylor Heinicke (QB8)
The Atlanta Falcons have swapped their starter at quarterback multiple times this season and reverted back to the better option in Taylor Heinicke. Atlanta will be in its indoor home against a lackluster Indianapolis Colts defense.
Heinicke's track record suggests a solid game coming for Atlanta’s offense, but it is his rushing upside making him a fantasy start, ranking in the top 10 for Week 16. In his one start (Week 9), Heinicke threw for 268 yards, and despite only one touchdown, he finished as QB14.
Nick Mullens (QB10)
In his first start for the Minnesota Vikings, Nick Mullens threw two interceptions but finished as the fantasy QB11 in Week 15. He did so on the back of 303 passing yards and two passing touchdowns.
With his big three of Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson and Jordan Addison healthy again in Week 16, Mullens’ flaws should be mitigated against a Detroit Lions defense that has been lackluster lately. Detroit has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
Running backs
| Player | Carries | Yards | TDs | Targets | Rec | Yards | TDs | Fantasy Points | Fantasy Points (PPR) |
| Christian McCaffrey | 18.8 | 91.2 | 1.1 | 6 | 4.6 | 46.8 | 0.2 | 23.5 | 25.8 |
| Kyren Williams | 16.5 | 78.4 | 0.4 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 29.7 | 0.5 | 18.1 | 19.8 |
| Travis Etienne | 20.9 | 82.4 | 0.9 | 4.4 | 2.9 | 26.6 | 0.1 | 18 | 19.5 |
| Alvin Kamara | 15.9 | 54.5 | 0.4 | 7 | 5.9 | 49 | 0.2 | 16.9 | 19.8 |
| Breece Hall | 16.8 | 60.4 | 0.7 | 6 | 4.5 | 38.2 | 0.1 | 16.8 | 19 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 23.9 | 96 | 0.7 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 12.2 | 0.1 | 16.3 | 17.2 |
| D'Andre Swift | 16.6 | 90.4 | 0.5 | 3.2 | 2.5 | 16.4 | 0.2 | 16.2 | 17.4 |
| Bijan Robinson | 15 | 70.9 | 0.4 | 5 | 3.1 | 25.8 | 0.3 | 15.6 | 17.2 |
| Rachaad White | 17 | 65.8 | 0.6 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 28.6 | 0.1 | 15.3 | 16.9 |
| Derrick Henry | 17.5 | 73.3 | 0.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 13.2 | 0 | 14.4 | 15.3 |
| Jahmyr Gibbs | 11 | 48.8 | 0.5 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 29.9 | 0.3 | 14.3 | 16.3 |
| Josh Jacobs | 18.5 | 79.9 | 0.5 | 3 | 2.1 | 16.8 | 0.1 | 13.9 | 15 |
| Kenneth Walker III | 18.9 | 76.4 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 4.8 | 0.1 | 13.8 | 14.3 |
| Austin Ekeler | 13.4 | 55.2 | 0.3 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 34.9 | 0.2 | 13.6 | 15.2 |
| Gus Edwards | 16.4 | 67.5 | 0.7 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 17 | 0 | 13.4 | 14.2 |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 18.4 | 82.2 | 0.3 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 18.7 | 0 | 13.3 | 14.6 |
| Aaron Jones | 15.2 | 49.8 | 0.5 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 26.7 | 0.1 | 13.2 | 14.6 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 15.5 | 71.4 | 0.3 | 2.9 | 2 | 17 | 0.2 | 12.8 | 13.7 |
| Raheem Mostert | 14.5 | 71.6 | 0.5 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 10.2 | 0.1 | 12.8 | 13.4 |
| Joe Mixon | 13 | 50.6 | 0.4 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 26.3 | 0.2 | 12.6 | 13.9 |
| Saquon Barkley | 18.1 | 73.7 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1 | 5.7 | 0.1 | 12.4 | 12.9 |
| Tony Pollard | 19.2 | 65 | 0.5 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 9.8 | 0.1 | 12.4 | 13.4 |
| Jaylen Warren | 9.4 | 53.1 | 0.4 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 23.1 | 0.1 | 11.7 | 13.1 |
| David Montgomery | 16.1 | 62.8 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 11.6 | 12.1 |
| James Cook | 14.4 | 69 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 2 | 16.5 | 0.1 | 11.5 | 12.5 |
| James Conner | 15.4 | 63.1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 0.1 | 11.1 | 11.7 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 16.2 | 55.1 | 0.2 | 4.1 | 3 | 15.1 | 0.1 | 10.5 | 12 |
| Javonte Williams | 11.9 | 37.9 | 0.2 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 18.4 | 0.3 | 10.3 | 11.9 |
| Najee Harris | 9.4 | 39.8 | 0.5 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 13 | 0.1 | 9.8 | 10.7 |
| Devon Achane | 7.9 | 41.7 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 20.3 | 0.1 | 9.8 | 10.9 |
| Jerome Ford | 14.6 | 49.7 | 0.4 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 10.5 | 0 | 9.6 | 10.4 |
| Antonio Gibson | 9.8 | 38.7 | 0.3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 19.3 | 0.2 | 9.6 | 10.8 |
| Ty Chandler | 14.3 | 50.6 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 11.6 | 0.1 | 9.3 | 10 |
| Tyjae Spears | 7.3 | 36.6 | 0.2 | 4.2 | 3 | 23.6 | 0 | 8.6 | 10.1 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 7.6 | 34.6 | 0.4 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 13.8 | 0 | 8.5 | 9.9 |
| Devin Singletary | 11 | 43.7 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 9.5 | 0.1 | 8.4 | 9 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 9 | 38.1 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 8.3 | 0.1 | 8.1 | 8.7 |
| Samaje Perine | 4.1 | 12.9 | 0 | 3.9 | 3.4 | 32 | 0.2 | 7.4 | 9.1 |
| Khalil Herbert | 5.5 | 25.7 | 0.4 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 11.6 | 0 | 6.9 | 7.7 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 5.2 | 22.5 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 12.3 | 0.3 | 6.6 | 7.3 |
| Kareem Hunt | 6.6 | 20.2 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 8.6 | 0.1 | 6.4 | 7 |
| Roschon Johnson | 5.5 | 20.8 | 0.2 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 12.2 | 0.1 | 5.9 | 6.7 |
| A.J. Dillon | 5.1 | 16.6 | 0.1 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 21.4 | 0 | 5.8 | 6.9 |
| Royce Freeman | 3.8 | 15.3 | 0.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 7.1 | 0.1 | 5.6 | 6.1 |
| Justice Hill | 6.6 | 24.2 | 0.2 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 11 | 0 | 5.5 | 6.3 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | 3.9 | 18 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 6.5 | 0.1 | 5.3 | 6.2 |
| Chase Brown | 4.3 | 18.4 | 0.1 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 14.4 | 0.1 | 5 | 6 |
| Joshua Kelley | 6.7 | 25.8 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 9.3 | 0.1 | 5 | 5.7 |
| Miles Sanders | 4.8 | 19.1 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 5 | 0.2 | 4.9 | 5.5 |
| Zach Charbonnet | 3.8 | 14.4 | 0.1 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 10.8 | 0.1 | 4.7 | 5.8 |
| Rico Dowdle | 8 | 27.4 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 3.3 | 0 | 4.6 | 4.9 |
| D'Ernest Johnson | 2.9 | 12.1 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 9 | 0.1 | 4.5 | 5 |
| Jaleel McLaughlin | 3 | 11.7 | 0.1 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 10.1 | 0.1 | 4.4 | 5.6 |
| Latavius Murray | 3.9 | 14.9 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 2.7 | 0 | 4 | 4.3 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 3 | 12.7 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 7.1 | 0.1 | 3.4 | 4 |
| Dameon Pierce | 3.2 | 10.3 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 7.7 | 0.1 | 3.4 | 4.1 |
| Dalvin Cook | 2.5 | 11.1 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 4.5 | 0.1 | 3.3 | 3.7 |
| Alexander Mattison | 5.5 | 23.1 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 3.2 |
| Matt Breida | 2.6 | 10.5 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 7.9 | 0 | 3.1 | 3.9 |
| Jamaal Williams | 5.1 | 17.9 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1.5 | 0 | 3.1 | 3.2 |
| Ameer Abdullah | 1.9 | 9.9 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 8.2 | 0.1 | 2.9 | 3.5 |
| Salvon Ahmed | 2 | 7.9 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 4.9 | 0.1 | 2.9 | 3.2 |
| Pierre Strong Jr. | 3.3 | 12.5 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 3.7 | 0 | 2.8 | 3.1 |
| Leonard Fournette | 1.3 | 4.2 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 4.3 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 2.7 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 2.4 |
| Zamir White | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 6.6 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 |
| Elijah Mitchell | 2.3 | 7.8 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 4.2 | 0 | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| Kendre Miller | 0.7 | 2.6 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 3.8 | 0.1 | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Isaiah Spiller | 1.3 | 5.7 | 0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 2.7 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Boston Scott | 1.1 | 5 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 2.8 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Breece Hall (RB5)
The New York Jets are still unsure who they will start at quarterback in Week 16, but regardless of the outcome, they should be heavily reliant on their star running back, Breece Hall.
In Week 16, they face a Washington Commanders defense that has been one of the worst in the NFL, giving Hall elite usage and scoring upside. He's an auto-start in all formats.
Hall has finished as a top-12 running back six times this season; do not let last week's blowout script fool you.
Gus Edwards (RB15)
The Baltimore Ravens have dealt with losses due to injury all season long and most recently have been struck by a season-ender to RB Keaton Mitchell. The rushing mix for Baltimore is now down to QB Lamar Jackson and RBs Gus Edwards and Justice Hill.
In Week 15, following Mitchell's injury, Baltimore reverted to a two-man rotation of Edwards on early downs and Hill on passing downs. Edwards earned four of the game’s five running back goal-line carries. In a projected competitive game against the San Francisco 49ers, Edwards is worth a start as a high-end RB2.
Wide Receivers
| Player | Targets | Rec | Yards | TDs | Fantasy Points | Fantasy Points (PPR) |
| Stefon Diggs | 10.1 | 7 | 91.7 | 0.7 | 17 | 20.5 |
| Amon-Ra St. Brown | 10.7 | 7.8 | 93 | 0.6 | 16.9 | 20.8 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 10.1 | 7.4 | 88.5 | 0.6 | 16.7 | 20.4 |
| Tyreek Hill | 10.9 | 7.6 | 81.4 | 0.7 | 15.9 | 19.7 |
| Cooper Kupp | 9.1 | 5.1 | 90.4 | 0.5 | 14.8 | 17.4 |
| Mike Evans | 9.1 | 5.3 | 90.1 | 0.5 | 14.8 | 17.5 |
| DJ Moore | 10.1 | 7.1 | 72.1 | 0.6 | 14.5 | 18 |
| Justin Jefferson | 10.6 | 7.4 | 78 | 0.5 | 14.5 | 18.2 |
| A.J. Brown | 8.8 | 5.9 | 75 | 0.5 | 13.6 | 16.5 |
| Jaylen Waddle | 8.4 | 5.6 | 80.6 | 0.4 | 13.4 | 16.2 |
| DK Metcalf | 8.9 | 4.7 | 73.7 | 0.5 | 12.8 | 15.2 |
| Nico Collins | 8.5 | 5.5 | 77.4 | 0.4 | 12.8 | 15.6 |
| Amari Cooper | 9.7 | 5.5 | 64.8 | 0.6 | 12.6 | 15.4 |
| Tee Higgins | 9.1 | 5.5 | 70.9 | 0.4 | 12.3 | 15.1 |
| Courtland Sutton | 7.8 | 5.4 | 58.2 | 0.6 | 12.1 | 14.8 |
| Puka Nacua | 8.2 | 4.7 | 70.6 | 0.4 | 12 | 14.3 |
| Adam Thielen | 9.7 | 6.1 | 60.3 | 0.5 | 11.9 | 14.9 |
| Terry McLaurin | 9.8 | 6.7 | 62.5 | 0.4 | 11.9 | 15.2 |
| Noah Brown | 7.6 | 5.4 | 70.6 | 0.3 | 11.8 | 14.5 |
| Chris Godwin | 8.3 | 5.3 | 62 | 0.4 | 11.7 | 14.3 |
| DeVonta Smith | 7.4 | 5.2 | 67.6 | 0.4 | 11.7 | 14.2 |
| Rashee Rice | 8.1 | 5.7 | 54.8 | 0.5 | 11.4 | 14.2 |
| Deebo Samuel | 6 | 4.4 | 40.6 | 0.2 | 11.4 | 13.6 |
| Diontae Johnson | 9.5 | 5.5 | 68.2 | 0.3 | 11.1 | 13.8 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | 6 | 4.6 | 61.2 | 0.4 | 11 | 13.3 |
| Josh Palmer | 7.1 | 4.6 | 65.3 | 0.3 | 10.9 | 13.3 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | 9.2 | 4.6 | 64.3 | 0.4 | 10.9 | 13.2 |
| Curtis Samuel | 8.7 | 6.2 | 56.4 | 0.3 | 10.8 | 13.9 |
| Calvin Ridley | 7.2 | 4.8 | 63.5 | 0.3 | 10.7 | 13.2 |
| Tyler Lockett | 6.8 | 4.8 | 53.2 | 0.5 | 10.6 | 13 |
| Drake London | 7.5 | 5.1 | 52.2 | 0.4 | 10.4 | 13 |
| Garrett Wilson | 9 | 5 | 54.4 | 0.4 | 10.4 | 12.9 |
| Chris Olave | 8.8 | 4.8 | 55.2 | 0.4 | 10.2 | 12.6 |
| Davante Adams | 8.3 | 4.3 | 48.9 | 0.4 | 9.8 | 12 |
| Demarcus Robinson | 6.4 | 3.6 | 63.3 | 0.3 | 9.7 | 11.5 |
| Josh Downs | 8.7 | 4.8 | 56.6 | 0.3 | 9.6 | 12 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 6.8 | 4.4 | 57.9 | 0.3 | 9.6 | 11.8 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 6.1 | 3.7 | 57.4 | 0.2 | 9.5 | 11.4 |
| Brandin Cooks | 5.1 | 3.8 | 54.4 | 0.3 | 9.2 | 11.1 |
| Jordan Addison | 6.7 | 4.1 | 50.6 | 0.3 | 9.1 | 11.2 |
| Elijah Moore | 8.8 | 4.7 | 43.6 | 0.3 | 9 | 11.4 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 5.5 | 4.1 | 49.6 | 0.3 | 8.9 | 11 |
| Zay Flowers | 7.1 | 5.1 | 48.8 | 0.2 | 8.8 | 11.4 |
| George Pickens | 6.1 | 3.2 | 48.5 | 0.3 | 8.6 | 10.2 |
| Romeo Doubs | 5.8 | 4 | 41.8 | 0.4 | 8.6 | 10.6 |
| Tyler Boyd | 7.3 | 4.4 | 37.8 | 0.4 | 8.2 | 10.4 |
| Jakobi Meyers | 6 | 3.3 | 43.1 | 0.2 | 7.8 | 9.5 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 6.4 | 3.9 | 46.1 | 0.2 | 7.7 | 9.6 |
| Gabe Davis | 4.6 | 2.8 | 41.1 | 0.4 | 7.7 | 9.1 |
| Wan'Dale Robinson | 6.2 | 3.9 | 35.6 | 0.3 | 7.4 | 9.4 |
| Marquise Brown | 6.6 | 3.4 | 41.7 | 0.3 | 7.4 | 9.1 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 7.8 | 4.1 | 38.6 | 0.2 | 7.1 | 9.1 |
| Dontayvion Wicks | 5 | 3 | 39.1 | 0.3 | 7 | 8.5 |
| Parker Washington | 5.8 | 4.1 | 35.1 | 0.2 | 7 | 9 |
| Robert Woods | 5.9 | 3.4 | 34.3 | 0.3 | 6.7 | 8.4 |
| DeVante Parker | 5.4 | 3.1 | 37.1 | 0.2 | 6.5 | 8.1 |
| Rondale Moore | 5.2 | 3.2 | 29.6 | 0.1 | 6.5 | 8.1 |
| DJ Chark | 3.9 | 2.5 | 37 | 0.3 | 6.5 | 7.7 |
| Darius Slayton | 4.6 | 3.1 | 38.3 | 0.2 | 6.4 | 7.9 |
| Quentin Johnston | 5.3 | 3.1 | 36.7 | 0.2 | 6.2 | 7.7 |
| Jahan Dotson | 4.3 | 2.8 | 29.1 | 0.3 | 6.1 | 7.5 |
| Justin Watson | 5.8 | 3 | 29.8 | 0.3 | 6 | 7.5 |
| Trey Palmer | 4 | 2.6 | 25.1 | 0.3 | 5.9 | 7.2 |
| Khalil Shakir | 3.5 | 2.1 | 34.5 | 0.2 | 5.6 | 6.7 |
| Alec Pierce | 3.5 | 2.3 | 33.7 | 0.2 | 5.5 | 6.7 |
| Greg Dortch | 4.5 | 3.2 | 32.2 | 0.1 | 5.3 | 6.9 |
| Josh Reynolds | 3.6 | 2.2 | 28.7 | 0.2 | 5.3 | 6.4 |
| Darnell Mooney | 3.7 | 1.8 | 27 | 0.2 | 5 | 5.9 |
| K.J. Osborn | 3.9 | 2.3 | 16.2 | 0.3 | 5 | 6.1 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 4.5 | 3 | 25.1 | 0.1 | 4.8 | 6.4 |
| Jalin Hyatt | 3.9 | 1.8 | 31.6 | 0.1 | 4.6 | 5.5 |
| Jalen Tolbert | 4.2 | 2.4 | 23.8 | 0.2 | 4.6 | 5.8 |
| Kalif Raymond | 3.4 | 2.1 | 28 | 0.1 | 4.4 | 5.5 |
| Trenton Irwin | 2.7 | 1.9 | 23.7 | 0.2 | 4.3 | 5.3 |
| Michael Gallup | 2.5 | 1.8 | 28.4 | 0.1 | 4.2 | 5.1 |
| Rashod Bateman | 2.8 | 1.9 | 22.5 | 0.1 | 4.1 | 5 |
| Skyy Moore | 2.9 | 1.7 | 18.1 | 0.1 | 4.1 | 4.9 |
| Brandon Powell | 3.9 | 2.5 | 19.9 | 0.1 | 3.7 | 5 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 2.5 | 1.3 | 22.9 | 0.1 | 3.7 | 4.4 |
| Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | 2.5 | 1.2 | 15.7 | 0.2 | 3.6 | 4.2 |
| D.J. Montgomery | 3.5 | 1.9 | 13.7 | 0.2 | 3.4 | 4.3 |
| Jalen Guyton | 3.6 | 1.8 | 13.4 | 0.2 | 3.2 | 4.1 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. | 2.2 | 1.3 | 15.5 | 0.1 | 3 | 3.7 |
| Jameson Williams | 2.7 | 1.2 | 15.6 | 0.1 | 3 | 3.6 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 2.3 | 1.6 | 11.3 | 0.1 | 2.6 | 3.3 |
| Deonte Harty | 1.8 | 1.1 | 10.5 | 0.2 | 2.5 | 3.1 |
| Jauan Jennings | 1.8 | 1.2 | 14.8 | 0.1 | 2.4 | 3 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1.4 | 1 | 12.2 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 2.7 |
| Kadarius Toney | 1 | 0.6 | 4.3 | 0.1 | 2.1 | 2.5 |
| Allen Robinson | 1.7 | 1 | 10.1 | 0.1 | 2 | 2.5 |
| Xavier Gipson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 2.3 | 1.4 | 8.9 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 2.6 |
| Allen Lazard | 0.8 | 0.5 | 6 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| DeAndre Carter | 0.8 | 0.5 | 6.4 | 0.1 | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| Quez Watkins | 0.8 | 0.5 | 4.2 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Demario Douglas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Danny Gray | 0.8 | 0.5 | 5.5 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Calvin Austin III | 1.3 | 0.7 | 7.8 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Zach Pascal | 1.5 | 0.9 | 5.1 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Parris Campbell | 0.6 | 0.4 | 2.4 | 0 | 1 | 1.2 |
| Ben Skowronek | 0.9 | 0.6 | 4.2 | 0.1 | 1 | 1.3 |
| Michael Wilson | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 |
Amari Cooper (WR13)
Although Joe Flacco doesn’t instill confidence in fantasy managers for upside purposes, his top wideout, Amari Cooper, is a safe start. The Cleveland Browns will play in a projected competitive game in the indoor confines of Houston.
Cooper has earned 22 targets and recorded 186 receiving yards in his last two games. Week 15 was just his third week posting a top-14 week, but he projects to be a league-winning attribute this week.
Chris Godwin (WR20)
After posting a game with no receiving yards a few weeks ago, Chris Godwin re-emerged as an elite-upside asset. He recorded at least 11 targets in back-to-back games and has seen at least one red zone target in eight games.
In Week 16, they face a Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense that has declined. Since coming off its bye in Week 10, Jacksonville has allowed the 11th-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. This ceiling makes Godwin a low-end WR2 start this weekend.
Tight Ends
| Player | Targets | Rec | Yards | TDs | Fantasy Points | Fantasy Points (PPR) |
| Travis Kelce | 10.7 | 8.4 | 74.2 | 0.6 | 15.4 | 19.6 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 9.6 | 6.5 | 68.4 | 0.5 | 13.1 | 16.3 |
| Dalton Kincaid | 8.3 | 6.4 | 62.8 | 0.5 | 12.4 | 15.6 |
| Trey McBride | 8.2 | 6 | 68.6 | 0.3 | 11.4 | 14.4 |
| Sam LaPorta | 7.1 | 5.3 | 49.4 | 0.4 | 10 | 12.7 |
| Cole Kmet | 7.3 | 5.6 | 42.9 | 0.5 | 9.9 | 12.7 |
| George Kittle | 6 | 4.6 | 53.3 | 0.4 | 9.7 | 12.1 |
| Jake Ferguson | 6.8 | 4.3 | 46.7 | 0.5 | 9.5 | 11.7 |
| Kyle Pitts | 7.5 | 4.9 | 50.2 | 0.3 | 9.3 | 11.7 |
| David Njoku | 8.8 | 5.3 | 45.5 | 0.3 | 9.2 | 11.8 |
| Dallas Goedert | 5.6 | 4 | 51.1 | 0.3 | 8.9 | 10.9 |
| Evan Engram | 8.1 | 5.9 | 44.5 | 0.2 | 8.8 | 11.7 |
| Darren Waller | 6.9 | 4.8 | 46.9 | 0.3 | 8.8 | 11.2 |
| Dalton Schultz | 6.8 | 4.4 | 44.4 | 0.3 | 8.7 | 10.9 |
| Gerald Everett | 6.2 | 4 | 43.8 | 0.4 | 8.6 | 10.6 |
| Logan Thomas | 6.5 | 4.6 | 38.4 | 0.3 | 7.9 | 10.2 |
| Tucker Kraft | 5.8 | 2.9 | 34.8 | 0.4 | 7.3 | 8.8 |
| Jonnu Smith | 5 | 3.5 | 34.3 | 0.3 | 7 | 8.7 |
| Durham Smythe | 5.4 | 3.6 | 32.5 | 0.2 | 6.4 | 8.2 |
| Cade Otton | 5 | 3.3 | 31.3 | 0.3 | 6.3 | 8 |
| Juwan Johnson | 6.1 | 3.6 | 30.8 | 0.2 | 6.2 | 8 |
| Michael Mayer | 4.5 | 3.2 | 38.1 | 0.1 | 6.1 | 7.7 |
| Chigoziem Okonkwo | 5.8 | 3.8 | 29.9 | 0.2 | 5.9 | 7.8 |
| Isaiah Likely | 4.2 | 3.2 | 31 | 0.2 | 5.9 | 7.5 |
| Hunter Henry | 4.5 | 2.8 | 24.6 | 0.3 | 5.7 | 7.1 |
| Tanner Hudson | 4.6 | 3.4 | 29 | 0.2 | 5.6 | 7.3 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 4.5 | 2.8 | 28.9 | 0.2 | 5.3 | 6.7 |
| Tyler Higbee | 4.5 | 2.9 | 24.5 | 0.2 | 5.2 | 6.6 |
| Tyler Conklin | 3.8 | 2.7 | 29.9 | 0.1 | 5 | 6.4 |
| Noah Gray | 2.9 | 2.3 | 26.4 | 0.2 | 4.9 | 6.1 |
| Tommy Tremble | 3.9 | 2.3 | 13.9 | 0.2 | 3.9 | 5.1 |
| Hayden Hurst | 2.9 | 1.6 | 14.3 | 0.3 | 3.9 | 4.7 |
| Taysom Hill | 1.8 | 1.2 | 12.8 | 0.1 | 3.4 | 4 |
| Mike Gesicki | 2.7 | 1.5 | 16 | 0.1 | 3.2 | 3.9 |
| Noah Fant | 2.4 | 1.6 | 12.9 | 0.2 | 3.1 | 3.9 |
| Adam Trautman | 2.3 | 1.7 | 11.2 | 0.2 | 3.1 | 3.9 |
| Irv Smith Jr. | 1.8 | 1.3 | 7.6 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 3.1 |
| Kylen Granson | 2.6 | 1.3 | 9 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 2.9 |
| Daniel Bellinger | 1.5 | 1.1 | 12.1 | 0 | 1.9 | 2.5 |
| Will Dissly | 1.4 | 0.9 | 8 | 0.1 | 1.9 | 2.4 |
| Austin Hooper | 0.8 | 0.6 | 4.1 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| C.J. Uzomah | 0.3 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.7 |
| Zach Gentry | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 0 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Gerald Everett (TE15)
The Los Angeles Chargers have gotten flat-out embarrassed in back-to-back games. In Week 16, they are rightfully huge home underdogs to the Buffalo Bills. TE Gerald Everett has been Easton Stick’s favorite target through the struggles. Everett has seen eight targets in back-to-back games.
With Keenan Allen out of practice and Mike Williams still on the injured reserve, a negative game script should set up Everett for a high-ceiling game. That makes him one of the top streaming candidates in Week 16.
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