Fantasy & Betting
11/21/23
11 min read
2023 NFL Week 12 Fantasy Football Rankings
Below, you’ll find 2023 Week 12 fantasy rankings for points per reception (PPR) and half-PPR leagues. There are 32 ranked quarterbacks, 49 running backs, 67 wide receivers and 25 tight ends.
On Thursday, Matthew Hill and Kevin Wheeler’s rankings will be added, and positional rankings then will be ordered by averaging the rankings from the three of us.
There also are the top 12 defense rankings from Ryan Reynolds.
There are no teams on bye in Week 12.
For each player, you can view their ranking, matchup and implied team total according to Las Vegas sportsbooks. For example, the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans have a Vegas game total of 48.5, with the Jaguars favored by 1.5 points (25 points implied for the Jaguars, 23.5 points implied for the Texans). Seeing the implied point totals can help you understand which games (and teams) are projected to be high-scoring and filled with fantasy points.
Meanwhile, xPPR (expected PPR points) looks strictly at usage rather than a player’s ability. Think of this as each player’s average expected fantasy points per game based on the touches they get.
The “Proj.” column in the table (projected fantasy points, added Wednesday) is courtesy of our data scientist, Ben Wolbransky. His projections won’t fully align with my fantasy rankings, but it’s another good piece of the puzzle to consider.
Detailed player write-ups appear below each set of positional rankings for additional context and will be updated throughout the week as injuries and other news come out.
Be sure to check out our Week 12 Waiver Wire article here.
Join our FREE Discord for help with start-sits, trades and general fantasy advice each week. We’ll also drop player prop bets and DFS strategy throughout the season.
Week 12 Fantasy Rankings
Top 32 Quarterbacks
Rank | Player | Average | Larky Rank | Hill Rank | Wheeler Rank | Team | Opp | Team Total | xPPR | Proj |
1 | Jalen Hurts | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | PHI | BUF | 25.5 | 22.7 | 23 |
2 | Josh Allen | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | BUF | PHI | 22 | 17.7 | 20.7 |
3 | Lamar Jackson | 3.3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | BAL | LAC | 25.75 | 20.2 | 22.4 |
4 | Patrick Mahomes | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | KC | LV | 27 | 18.3 | 22.1 |
5 | Dak Prescott | 4 | 6 | 5 | 1 | DAL | WAS | 29.75 | 18.2 | 20.9 |
6 | C.J. Stroud | 6.7 | 5 | 6 | 9 | HOU | JAX | 23.5 | 18.6 | 20.6 |
7 | Kyler Murray | 7.3 | 8 | 7 | 7 | ARI | LA | 21.75 | 18.2 | 18 |
8 | Justin Fields | 7.7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | CHI | MIN | 20.75 | 18.2 | 20.5 |
9 | Brock Purdy | 8.7 | 11 | 9 | 6 | SF | SEA | 24.75 | 14.4 | 17.5 |
10 | Justin Herbert | 10.7 | 9 | 13 | 10 | LAC | BAL | 21.25 | 19.2 | 18.6 |
11 | Tua Tagovailoa | 12.3 | 10 | 14 | 13 | MIA | NYJ | 25 | 16.4 | 17.8 |
12 | Joshua Dobbs | 12.3 | 13 | 12 | 12 | MIN | CHI | 24.25 | 17.1 | 18.1 |
13 | Trevor Lawrence | 12.3 | 15 | 11 | 11 | JAX | HOU | 25 | 16.4 | 17.4 |
14 | Jared Goff | 12.7 | 14 | 10 | 14 | DET | GB | 27.5 | 14.2 | 17.3 |
15 | Sam Howell | 14 | 12 | 15 | 15 | WAS | DAL | 18.75 | 16.6 | 18.1 |
16 | Gardner Minshew | 16.3 | 17 | 16 | 16 | IND | TB | 23 | 13.4 | 16.3 |
17 | Matthew Stafford | 17.7 | 16 | 18 | 19 | LA | ARI | 22.75 | 15.3 | 17.6 |
18 | Derek Carr | 18.7 | 18 | 20 | 18 | NO | ATL | 21.5 | 14.5 | 13.8 |
19 | Baker Mayfield | 19.3 | 20 | 17 | 21 | TB | IND | 20.5 | 18.2 | 16 |
20 | Jordan Love | 19.3 | 22 | 19 | 17 | GB | DET | 20 | 17.6 | 15.6 |
21 | Russell Wilson | 21.7 | 21 | 21 | 23 | DEN | CLE | 19 | 16.5 | 17.5 |
22 | Desmond Ridder | 22 | 19 | 23 | 24 | ATL | NO | 20.5 | 13.4 | 17.1 |
23 | Kenny Pickett | 23.3 | 24 | 26 | 20 | PIT | CIN | 17.75 | 12.7 | 14.1 |
24 | Geno Smith | 24 | 25 | 22 | 25 | SEA | SF | 18.25 | 15.7 | 13.2 |
25 | Will Levis | 24 | 26 | 24 | 22 | TEN | CAR | 20.25 | 14.6 | 13.4 |
26 | Bryce Young | 24.7 | 23 | 25 | 26 | CAR | TEN | 16.75 | 13.8 | 15.6 |
27 | Dorian Thompson-Robinson | 28.7 | 30 | 28 | 28 | CLE | DEN | 16.5 | 11.3 | 13.4 |
28 | Mac Jones | 29 | 27 | 30 | 30 | NE | NYG | 18.5 | 12.6 | 14.3 |
29 | Jake Browning | 29 | 29 | 31 | 27 | CIN | PIT | 16.75 | 4.9 | 14 |
30 | Aidan O'Connell | 29.3 | 28 | 29 | 31 | LV | KC | 17 | 12.7 | 12 |
31 | Tommy DeVito | 29.3 | 32 | 27 | 29 | NYG | NE | 15 | 12.4 | 11.7 |
32 | Tim Boyle | 31.7 | 31 | 32 | 32 | NYJ | MIA | 15 | 4.3 | 11.5 |
- Dak Prescott faces a Commanders defense that’s arguably the worst unit in football right now.
- Justin Fields ran 18 times for 104 yards in his Week 11 return against the Lions. The Vikings' defense has played well of late, but no team is capable of shutting down Fields’ dual-threat ability when he’s on. Minnesota has been difficult to run against this season, so expect more of Fields’ passing abilities in Week 12.
- Tua Tagovailoa has struggled against above-average defenses this year, and his floor is lowered against the Jets during the first-ever Black Friday game.
- Gardner Minshew is a top streamer this week against a Buccaneers defense allowing 8.0 yards per pass attempt (second-highest) and 20.2 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (third-highest). The Buccaneers are yet to allow a rushing touchdown to running backs all season, so expect a more pass-centric game plan in the red zone and at the goal line for the Indianapolis Colts.
Top 49 Running Backs
Rank | Player | Average | Larky Rank | Hill Rank | Wheeler Rank | Team | Opp | Team Total | xPPR | Proj |
1 | Christian McCaffrey | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | SF | SEA | 24.75 | 21.1 | 24.9 |
2 | Alvin Kamara | 3.7 | 2 | 4 | 5 | NO | ATL | 21.50 | 20.6 | 17.4 |
3 | Travis Etienne | 4.3 | 9 | 2 | 2 | JAX | HOU | 25.00 | 16 | 20.3 |
4 | Austin Ekeler | 5.3 | 3 | 3 | 10 | LAC | BAL | 21.25 | 18.9 | 18.2 |
5 | Jonathan Taylor | 7.3 | 14 | 5 | 3 | IND | TB | 23.00 | 15.1 | 18.2 |
6 | Tony Pollard | 7.7 | 6 | 9 | 8 | DAL | WAS | 29.75 | 15.9 | 13.5 |
7 | Jahmyr Gibbs | 7.7 | 8 | 6 | 9 | DET | GB | 27.50 | 15.8 | 18.7 |
8 | D'Andre Swift | 8 | 5 | 8 | 11 | PHI | BUF | 25.50 | 14.9 | 18 |
9 | Derrick Henry | 10.7 | 17 | 11 | 4 | TEN | CAR | 20.25 | 12.2 | 17.2 |
10 | Josh Jacobs | 11 | 10 | 7 | 16 | LV | KC | 17.00 | 16.6 | 12.6 |
11 | Breece Hall | 11.7 | 7 | 13 | 15 | NYJ | MIA | 15.00 | 11.6 | 16.1 |
12 | Bijan Robinson | 12 | 4 | 15 | 17 | ATL | NO | 20.50 | 13.1 | 16 |
13 | Rachaad White | 12 | 11 | 12 | 13 | TB | IND | 20.50 | 14.9 | 16.7 |
14 | Saquon Barkley | 12.3 | 21 | 10 | 6 | NYG | NE | 15.00 | 18.4 | 16.1 |
15 | Isiah Pacheco | 13.3 | 12 | 14 | 14 | KC | LV | 27.00 | 12.5 | 14.9 |
16 | Raheem Mostert | 13.7 | 16 | 18 | 7 | MIA | NYJ | 25.00 | 14.8 | 10.6 |
17 | Kyren Williams | 14 | 13 | 17 | 12 | LA | ARI | 22.75 | 17.8 | 6.3 |
18 | David Montgomery | 17 | 15 | 16 | 20 | DET | GB | 27.50 | 15.5 | 13.9 |
19 | James Conner | 19 | 18 | 20 | 19 | ARI | LA | 21.75 | 10.5 | 13.3 |
20 | Joe Mixon | 20.3 | 20 | 19 | 22 | CIN | PIT | 16.75 | 14.9 | 13.7 |
21 | Javonte Williams | 22.3 | 22 | 24 | 21 | DEN | CLE | 19.00 | 12 | 12.6 |
22 | Jaylen Warren | 22.7 | 19 | 23 | 26 | PIT | CIN | 17.75 | 9.9 | 14.5 |
23 | Rhamondre Stevenson | 23.3 | 23 | 22 | 25 | NE | NYG | 18.50 | 12.8 | 14.3 |
24 | Brian Robinson | 24 | 24 | 21 | 27 | WAS | DAL | 18.75 | 11.9 | 16.2 |
25 | Gus Edwards | 24.7 | 28 | 28 | 18 | BAL | LAC | 25.75 | 10.5 | 12.9 |
26 | AJ Dillon | 25.7 | 25 | 29 | 23 | GB | DET | 20.00 | 9.7 | 14.6 |
27 | Zach Charbonnet | 25.7 | 27 | 26 | 24 | SEA | SF | 18.25 | 7.2 | 14 |
28 | Jerome Ford | 26.7 | 26 | 25 | 29 | CLE | DEN | 16.50 | 11.4 | 9.6 |
29 | Devin Singletary | 28.3 | 30 | 27 | 28 | HOU | JAX | 23.50 | 8.7 | 10.7 |
30 | James Cook | 30 | 29 | 30 | 31 | BUF | PHI | 22.00 | 11.3 | 11.3 |
31 | Khalil Herbert | 32.3 | 31 | 32 | 34 | CHI | MIN | 20.75 | 11.4 | 9.4 |
32 | Alexander Mattison | 32.3 | 33 | 31 | 33 | MIN | CHI | 24.25 | 13.4 | 6.3 |
33 | Najee Harris | 32.7 | 35 | 33 | 30 | PIT | CIN | 17.75 | 10.6 | 13.5 |
34 | Ty Chandler | 33.7 | 32 | 37 | 32 | MIN | CHI | 24.25 | 4.1 | 5.8 |
35 | Chuba Hubbard | 34.3 | 34 | 34 | 35 | CAR | TEN | 16.75 | 9.4 | 10.3 |
36 | Kareem Hunt | 36 | 36 | 35 | 37 | CLE | DEN | 16.50 | 9.3 | 7.9 |
37 | Keaton Mitchell | 38.7 | 38 | 36 | 42 | BAL | LAC | 25.75 | 5.3 | - |
38 | Ezekiel Elliott | 38.7 | 40 | 38 | 38 | NE | NYG | 18.50 | 7.8 | 9.1 |
39 | Tyler Allgeier | 39 | 42 | 39 | 36 | ATL | NO | 20.50 | 10.5 | 10.7 |
40 | Miles Sanders | 39.7 | 37 | 41 | 41 | CAR | TEN | 16.75 | 8.8 | - |
41 | Antonio Gibson | 41.5 | 39 | - | 44 | WAS | DAL | 18.75 | 6.2 | 9 |
42 | Dameon Pierce | 41.7 | 41 | 45 | 39 | HOU | JAX | 23.50 | 12.3 | - |
43 | Tyjae Spears | 42.3 | 47 | 40 | 40 | TEN | CAR | 20.25 | 7.3 | 11 |
44 | Latavius Murray | 45.7 | 46 | 46 | 45 | BUF | PHI | 22.00 | 6.2 | - |
45 | Zack Moss | 46.7 | 44 | 48 | 48 | IND | TB | 23.00 | 13 | 9.1 |
46 | Kenneth Gainwell | 48.7 | 48 | 51 | 47 | PHI | BUF | 25.50 | 6.6 | 7.2 |
47 | Royce Freeman | 49.3 | 43 | 44 | 61 | LA | ARI | 22.75 | 10.1 | 10.7 |
48 | Joshua Kelley | 53 | 45 | 54 | 60 | LAC | BAL | 21.25 | 5.7 | - |
49 | Elijah Mitchell | 53.7 | 49 | 53 | 59 | SF | SEA | 24.75 | 3.6 | - |
- Travis Etienne has begun to cede more work to backup RB D’Ernest Johnson, and without elite volume, he’s not a high-end fantasy RB1.
- Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are strong starts on Thursday against a Packers defense allowing the seventh-most rushing yards per game this season. Green Bay also gives up the 11th-most receptions to the position. Gibbs and Montgomery can finish inside the top 12 this week.
- Kyren Williams is ranked with the assumption he’ll return to his workhorse ways before the injury, with Royce Freeman receiving a few breather back touches. Williams had at least 15 combined carries and targets in all six games to begin the season, reaching 17 fantasy points in four of six and averaging 18.5 PPR fantasy points per game during that span. The Cardinals allow 26.6 points per game to the position, the third-highest in the league.
- Javonte Williams is borderline monopolizing the running back carries in Denver, and the Browns' defense has been lockdown against passing attacks this season but much softer against running games, relatively.
- Jaylen Warren has back-to-back games of more than 100 yards, and with offensive coordinator Matt Canada’s firing earlier this week, he could out-touch Najee Harris in Week 12 against the Bengals.
- Zach Charbonnet should handle close to 20 touches for the Seattle Seahawks on Thanksgiving due to Kenneth Walker’s oblique injury. Unfortunately, the game script and the 49ers defense are not in his favor. Charbonnet should get by in fantasy through check downs in the passing game, though.
- Devin Singletary has at least 22 carries, 112 rushing yards and a touchdown in back-to-back games, but Dameon Pierce returns from injury. Additionally, the Jaguars' defense has held up well against running backs, allowing just 61 rushing yards per game to the position at 3.6 yards per carry.
- Khalil Herbert should handle heavy volume for the Bears in Week 12 because of D’Onta Foreman’s ankle sprain. However, the Vikings have shut down every running game other than the Eagles’ this season
Top 67 Wide Receivers
Rank | Player | Average | Larky Rank | Hill Rank | Wheeler Rank | Team | Opp | Team Total | xPPR | Proj |
1 | CeeDee Lamb | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | DAL | WAS | 29.75 | 17.6 | 25.3 |
2 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | 3 | 4 | 3 | 2 | DET | GB | 27.50 | 16.4 | 22.1 |
3 | Stefon Diggs | 3.7 | 2 | 5 | 4 | BUF | PHI | 22.00 | 15.9 | 18.4 |
4 | A.J. Brown | 4.3 | 6 | 4 | 3 | PHI | BUF | 25.50 | 16.2 | 18.9 |
5 | Tyreek Hill | 4.7 | 7 | 2 | 5 | MIA | NYJ | 25.00 | 18.2 | 19.9 |
6 | Keenan Allen | 5 | 3 | 6 | 6 | LAC | BAL | 21.25 | 18.3 | 22.8 |
7 | Brandon Aiyuk | 8 | 9 | 8 | 7 | SF | SEA | 24.75 | 11.7 | 16.2 |
8 | Michael Pittman | 9.7 | 8 | 9 | 12 | IND | TB | 23.00 | 15.2 | 15.9 |
9 | DJ Moore | 10.7 | 13 | 11 | 8 | CHI | MIN | 20.75 | 13 | 24.4 |
10 | Mike Evans | 10.7 | 14 | 7 | 11 | TB | IND | 20.50 | 14.6 | 16.6 |
11 | Chris Olave | 12.3 | 11 | 13 | 13 | NO | ATL | 21.50 | 15.3 | 12.5 |
12 | Tank Dell | 12.3 | 12 | 16 | 9 | HOU | JAX | 23.50 | 13.6 | 16.1 |
13 | Puka Nacua | 14 | 18 | 14 | 10 | LA | ARI | 22.75 | 16.1 | 15.6 |
14 | Davante Adams | 14.7 | 16 | 10 | 18 | LV | KC | 17.00 | 16.1 | 13.9 |
15 | DeVonta Smith | 15.3 | 10 | 19 | 17 | PHI | BUF | 25.50 | 11 | 16.3 |
16 | Adam Thielen | 15.3 | 15 | 17 | 14 | CAR | TEN | 16.75 | 15.1 | 15.8 |
17 | Cooper Kupp | 15.7 | 5 | 12 | 30 | LA | ARI | 22.75 | 12.3 | 18.2 |
18 | Ja'Marr Chase | 16.3 | 19 | 15 | 15 | CIN | PIT | 16.75 | 17.5 | 14.9 |
19 | Jaylen Waddle | 20 | 21 | 18 | 21 | MIA | NYJ | 25.00 | 12.1 | 15.3 |
20 | Christian Kirk | 20.3 | 22 | 20 | 19 | JAX | HOU | 25.00 | 11.8 | 15.2 |
21 | DK Metcalf | 21.7 | 28 | 21 | 16 | SEA | SF | 18.25 | 13.4 | 13.5 |
22 | Nico Collins | 23 | 25 | 22 | 22 | HOU | JAX | 23.50 | 11.9 | 14 |
23 | DeAndre Hopkins | 23.7 | 17 | 26 | 28 | TEN | CAR | 20.25 | 13.8 | 13.9 |
24 | Zay Flowers | 23.7 | 20 | 25 | 26 | BAL | LAC | 25.75 | 10.8 | 13.8 |
25 | Calvin Ridley | 24.3 | 29 | 24 | 20 | JAX | HOU | 25.00 | 13.3 | 12.9 |
26 | Garrett Wilson | 24.7 | 23 | 28 | 23 | NYJ | MIA | 15.00 | 15.4 | 13.9 |
27 | Deebo Samuel | 24.7 | 27 | 23 | 24 | SF | SEA | 24.75 | 10.7 | 11.2 |
28 | Tyler Lockett | 28.7 | 30 | 29 | 27 | SEA | SF | 18.25 | 13.1 | 12.2 |
29 | Marquise Brown | 30.3 | 24 | 36 | 31 | ARI | LA | 21.75 | 12.2 | 10.1 |
30 | Chris Godwin | 31 | 26 | 30 | 37 | TB | IND | 20.50 | 13 | 10 |
31 | Terry McLaurin | 31.3 | 38 | 27 | 29 | WAS | DAL | 18.75 | 12 | 14.7 |
32 | Diontae Johnson | 32.7 | 32 | 31 | 35 | PIT | CIN | 17.75 | 12.4 | 15 |
33 | Josh Downs | 34 | 31 | 39 | 32 | IND | TB | 23.00 | 9.2 | 11.2 |
34 | Jordan Addison | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | MIN | CHI | 24.25 | 12.6 | 14.9 |
35 | Courtland Sutton | 35.7 | 37 | 32 | 38 | DEN | CLE | 19.00 | 11.3 | 16.1 |
36 | Amari Cooper | 36 | 40 | 35 | 33 | CLE | DEN | 16.50 | 13.8 | 12.8 |
37 | Gabe Davis | 38.7 | 35 | 45 | 36 | BUF | PHI | 22.00 | 9.7 | 10.2 |
38 | Brandin Cooks | 39.7 | 33 | 42 | 44 | DAL | WAS | 29.75 | 8.7 | 9.3 |
39 | Demario Douglas | 40 | 36 | 41 | 43 | NE | NYG | 18.50 | 8.2 | 9.4 |
40 | Rashid Shaheed | 40.3 | 42 | 40 | 39 | NO | ATL | 21.50 | 9.7 | 8.7 |
41 | Rashee Rice | 41.3 | 41 | 33 | 50 | KC | LV | 27.00 | 7.6 | 9.9 |
42 | Drake London | 42 | 47 | 38 | 41 | ATL | NO | 20.50 | 11.9 | 13.1 |
43 | Odell Beckham Jr. | 43 | 39 | 50 | 40 | BAL | LAC | 25.75 | 8.4 | 9.4 |
44 | Christian Watson | 43 | 43 | 44 | 42 | GB | DET | 20.00 | 10 | 7.3 |
45 | Jayden Reed | 44.3 | 49 | 37 | 47 | GB | DET | 20.00 | 9.6 | 11.6 |
46 | George Pickens | 45.3 | 48 | 43 | 45 | PIT | CIN | 17.75 | 11.7 | 12.4 |
47 | Jerry Jeudy | 45.7 | 44 | 47 | 46 | DEN | CLE | 19.00 | 9.2 | 12.9 |
48 | Romeo Doubs | 47.7 | 45 | 46 | 52 | GB | DET | 20.00 | 12.2 | 10 |
49 | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 51 | 56 | 48 | 49 | SEA | SF | 18.25 | 7.9 | 9.5 |
50 | Zay Jones | 51.7 | 46 | 58 | 51 | JAX | HOU | 25.00 | 9.7 | - |
51 | Jahan Dotson | 52.3 | 52 | 52 | 53 | WAS | DAL | 18.75 | 9.7 | 10.3 |
52 | Jakobi Meyers | 54 | 57 | 51 | 54 | LV | KC | 17.00 | 12.4 | 7.7 |
53 | Khalil Shakir | 54.7 | 62 | 54 | 48 | BUF | PHI | 22.00 | 3.9 | 6.1 |
54 | Rondale Moore | 55.3 | 59 | 49 | 58 | ARI | LA | 21.75 | 6.8 | 8.2 |
55 | Justin Watson | 58 | 58 | 59 | 57 | KC | LV | 27.00 | 7.9 | 7.2 |
56 | Tyler Boyd | 59 | 51 | 56 | 70 | CIN | PIT | 16.75 | 10.3 | 9.6 |
57 | Jonathan Mingo | 60.7 | 55 | 62 | 65 | CAR | TEN | 16.75 | 8.5 | 8.7 |
58 | Elijah Moore | 61.7 | 60 | 57 | 68 | CLE | DEN | 16.50 | 10.1 | 9.3 |
59 | Robert Woods | 62 | 63 | 63 | 60 | HOU | JAX | 23.50 | 11.2 | 9.3 |
60 | K.J. Osborn | 63 | 50 | 70 | 69 | MIN | CHI | 24.25 | 8.7 | 6.4 |
61 | Quentin Johnston | 63 | 53 | 69 | 67 | LAC | BAL | 21.25 | 6.5 | 8 |
62 | Jameson Williams | 64.7 | 67 | 64 | 63 | DET | GB | 27.50 | 5.8 | - |
63 | Michael Gallup | 66.3 | 54 | 67 | 78 | DAL | WAS | 29.75 | 7 | 6.4 |
64 | Wan'Dale Robinson | 66.3 | 65 | 72 | 62 | NYG | NE | 15.00 | 6.5 | - |
65 | Darnell Mooney | 68.3 | 66 | 65 | 74 | CHI | MIN | 20.75 | 6.2 | 6.6 |
66 | DJ Chark | 70.3 | 64 | 74 | 73 | CAR | TEN | 16.75 | 7.1 | - |
67 | Josh Reynolds | 71.7 | 61 | 68 | 86 | DET | GB | 27.50 | 6.7 | 6.3 |
- Only Tyreek Hill averages more fantasy points per game (25.7) than Keenan Allen (22.8) this season.
- Seven wide receivers have topped 100 receiving yards and seven have topped 20 PPR fantasy points against Tampa Bay this year. Michael Pittman should reach double-digit targets in what projects to be a sneaky shootout.
- DJ Moore averages more than 22 fantasy points per game when Justin Fields starts and finishes the game, but just 10 points when it’s Tyson Bagent. Against a pass funnel Vikings defense, Moore is poised for a huge game.
- Tank Dell is quietly the WR10 in fantasy points per game, and he gets a Jacksonville defense that’s struggled against receivers.
- We’re playing wait-and-see with Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase in their first full games with backup quarterbacks this season. The expectation is a heavy target volume but decreased efficiency.
- Do not give up on Marquise Brown after two bad games with Kyler Murray. His average depth of target has been at least 17 yards in both games (incredibly high), and he could get more manufactured touches against the Rams to get him going this week.
- Zay Flowers and Odell Beckham Jr. should combine for around 50 percent of the Ravens' targets this week with Mark Andrews sidelined due to an ankle injury.
- Amari Cooper should not be started in fantasy with QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson (DTR) at the helm. DTR has thrown for fewer than 170 yards and four yards per pass attempt in both of his starts.
Top 25 Tight Ends
Rank | Player | Average | Larky Rank | Hill Rank | Wheeler Rank | Team | Opp | Team Total | xPPR | Proj |
1 | Travis Kelce | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | KC | LV | 27.00 | 14.6 | 16.8 |
2 | T.J. Hockenson | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | MIN | CHI | 24.25 | 13.5 | 17.1 |
3 | Dalton Kincaid | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | BUF | PHI | 22.00 | 8.6 | 15.5 |
4 | George Kittle | 4 | 6 | 4 | 2 | SF | SEA | 24.75 | 9.8 | 15.7 |
5 | Sam LaPorta | 4.7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | DET | GB | 27.50 | 9.9 | 12.5 |
6 | Trey McBride | 5.3 | 4 | 6 | 6 | ARI | LA | 21.75 | 7.9 | 13.2 |
7 | Dalton Schultz | 8 | 8 | 7 | 9 | HOU | JAX | 23.50 | 10 | 10.8 |
8 | Evan Engram | 8 | 9 | 8 | 7 | JAX | HOU | 25.00 | 9.5 | 11.9 |
9 | Jake Ferguson | 8.7 | 7 | 9 | 10 | DAL | WAS | 29.75 | 9.1 | 12 |
10 | David Njoku | 9.3 | 10 | 10 | 8 | CLE | DEN | 16.50 | 9.7 | 11.5 |
11 | Taysom Hill | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | NO | ATL | 21.50 | 9.1 | 10.9 |
12 | Cole Kmet | 12.7 | 12 | 12 | 14 | CHI | MIN | 20.75 | 9.7 | 12.6 |
13 | Kyle Pitts | 13.3 | 13 | 15 | 12 | ATL | NO | 20.50 | 9.4 | 10.6 |
14 | Isaiah Likely | 13.7 | 14 | 14 | 13 | BAL | LAC | 25.75 | 1.9 | 10.3 |
15 | Logan Thomas | 15 | 17 | 13 | 15 | WAS | DAL | 18.75 | 9.3 | 9.8 |
16 | Tyler Conklin | 18.3 | 16 | 18 | 21 | NYJ | MIA | 15.00 | 7 | 6 |
17 | Pat Freiermuth | 18.3 | 21 | 17 | 17 | PIT | CIN | 17.75 | 5.4 | - |
18 | Jonnu Smith | 18.7 | 19 | 19 | 18 | ATL | NO | 20.50 | 7.9 | 9 |
19 | Hunter Henry | 20 | 15 | 26 | 19 | NE | NYG | 18.50 | 7.7 | 8.4 |
20 | Tucker Kraft | 20.3 | 18 | 23 | 20 | GB | DET | 20.00 | 1.3 | - |
21 | Chigoziem Okonkwo | 22 | 20 | 24 | 22 | TEN | CAR | 20.25 | 6.8 | 7.2 |
22 | Tyler Higbee | 22.3 | 22 | 21 | 24 | LA | ARI | 22.75 | 6.8 | 7.6 |
23 | Michael Mayer | 22.7 | 23 | 20 | 25 | LV | KC | 17.00 | 4.5 | - |
24 | Juwan Johnson | 26.3 | 25 | 31 | 23 | NO | ATL | 21.50 | 6.8 | - |
25 | Daniel Bellinger | 27 | 24 | 30 | 27 | NYG | NE | 15.00 | 2.1 | - |
- T.J. Hockenson’s target share is in the mid 30s when Justin Jefferson is out, but just in the low 20s in games alongside him. However, QB Joshua Dobbs trusts Hockenson and has never thrown to Jefferson in game action before. At least for this week, Hockenson could be the lead target in Minnesota.
- George Kittle has at least 20 fantasy points in three consecutive games, and he appears to be ahead of Deebo Samuel in the receiving pecking order.
- David Njoku is the only Cleveland Browns receiver benefitting from their quarterback struggles. The team continues to manufacture touches for him, and his target share has crested 21 percent in five straight. This span has also seen him reach double-digit fantasy points in every game.
- Isaiah Likely has averaged just eight yards per game this season, and he should not be expected to take on the “Mark Andrews role” until we see it happen. Fortunately for him, the Chargers have given up the most passing yards per game to opponents at the highest yards per pass attempt.
- Hunter Henry is a viable tight end streamer against the Giants. Henry has averaged more than eight fantasy points per game in the three games since WR Kendrick Bourne’s ACL injury. The ceiling is low, but the floor is solid enough for those wanting something at the position.
Top 12 Fantasy Defenses
Rank | Name | Opp | Opp Total |
1 | Dallas Cowboys | WAS | 18.75 |
2 | Miami Dolphins | NYJ | 15 |
3 | San Francisco 49ers | SEA | 18.25 |
4 | Kansas City Chiefs | LV | 17 |
5 | Detroit Lions | GB | 20 |
6 | New England Patriots | NYG | 15 |
7 | Pittsburgh Steelers | CIN | 16.75 |
8 | Denver Broncos | CLE | 16.5 |
9 | Cleveland Browns | DEN | 19 |
10 | New York Giants | NE | 18.5 |
11 | Tennessee Titans | CAR | 16.75 |
12 | Philadelphia Eagles | BUF | 22 |
- Miami Dolphins defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s unit has been ascending while Jalen Ramsey is playing some of the best football of his career. You get to bet against Tim Boyle in Miami’s matchup against the New York Jets.
- You’re playing the San Francisco 49ers defense regardless of who starts at quarterback for the Seattle Seahawks. But if it’s Drew Lock, the chances of this becoming a slate-breaking option are abnormally high.
- With the New England Patriots defense, ultimately, you’re betting on Bill Belichick, coming off a bye, against a volatile rookie quarterback in Tommy DeVito. Belichick’s defenses have thrived in this type of situation over the years.
- Cincinnati’s offensive line is better today than it was on opening day. That said, you still get to bet against Jake Browning if you have the Pittsburgh Steelers defense.
- With the Tennessee Titans defense, you’re betting on their high-quality pass rush against struggling rookie QB Bryce Young.
- The Philadelphia Eagles defense doesn’t have a great matchup against the desperate Buffalo Bills, but Josh Allen is tied for the league lead in interceptions.
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