Analysis
8/29/23
7 min read
2023 NFL Betting: Guide to NFL Reception Leader Market
This article will help narrow your focus in the “most receptions” betting market. More than 25 players will be discussed with quick-hitting advice on handling them with their current odds.
All betting odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook. The “most receptions” menu is found by clicking NFL → League Leaders → Receptions in the mobile app.
In addition to the odds, implied percentage odds for each bet are included to provide context. A bet listed at +500 implies a 16.7 percent chance of hitting.
Market History
In the past 30 years, 29 wide receivers have led the league in receptions. In 2004, Tony Gonzalez became the only tight end to win. His 102 receptions remain the lowest league leader in the past 30 years.
No running back has led the NFL in receptions in the past 30 seasons. You should remove all running backs and tight ends from consideration. That means some stay-away players include Travis Kelce (+1100, 8.3 percent) and Austin Ekeler (+2000, 4.8 percent).
Join our FREE Discord to chat fantasy football all offseason. In season, we’ll drop player prop bets each week, DFS showdown AMAs and start-sit help.
2023 WR Options
Every wide receiver with odds between +500 and +6500 will have a quick write-up. There are a few bets worth considering.
Cooper Kupp (+500, 16.7 percent)
Cooper Kupp led the NFL in receptions in 2021 with 145 (8.5 per game) before averaging a league-leading 8.3 per game in 2022. He should be a favorite in this market, but this isn’t a bet we are strongly considering due to the state of the Los Angeles Rams’ offense and his lengthy injury history.
Ja’Marr Chase (+600, 14.3 percent)
Ja’Marr Chase finished last season with 87 receptions through 12 games, a pace of around 125 in 17 games. He should be a favorite in this market, but like Kupp, Chase isn’t a player we are rushing to bet on.
>> READ: Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet | Strategy Guide
Justin Jefferson (+650, 13.3 percent)
Last year’s receptions leader Justin Jefferson (128) should be among the favorites in this market. But his enhanced target competition (an entire season for the Minnesota Vikings of TE T.J. Hockenson and Round 1 rookie WR Jordan Addison) makes his chances to repeat murky.
Davante Adams (+750, 11.8 percent)
Davante Adams has never led the NFL in receptions and will be playing with the worst quarterback of his career: Jimmy Garoppolo.
Tyreek Hill (+800, 11.1 percent)
Tyreek Hill had 111 and 119 receptions in the past two seasons and should be one of the favorites in this market. If Tua Tagovailoa were guaranteed to stay healthy, Hill’s odds would be closer to Chase and Jefferson’s.
Stefon Diggs (+1200, 7.7 percent)
Stefon Diggs led the NFL in receptions and receiving yards in 2020, his first year with the Buffalo Bills. He hasn’t topped 108 receptions since, but the team hasn’t added much target competition. He is appropriately priced in this market.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (+1800, 5.3 percent)
In the past 20 games Amon-Ra St. Brown hasn’t left early due to injury, he’s been on pace for 129 receptions per 17 games. The Detroit Lions still don’t have much target competition, so he should probably be priced with or slightly ahead of Diggs.
CeeDee Lamb (+2000, 4.8 percent)
CeeDee Lamb had 107 receptions last year after failing to crack 80 in his first two seasons. He’s appropriately priced in this market.
Garrett Wilson (+2500, 3.9 percent)
Aaron Rodgers has operated the slowest-paced offense in the past two seasons, which probably prevents Garrett Wilson from leading the NFL in receptions. Adams never led the NFL in this market playing with Rodgers, either.
Jaylen Waddle (+3000, 3.2 percent)
Jaylen Waddle set the NFL rookie receptions record (104) in 2021 before taking on a high-volume field stretcher role in 2022. If Hill misses a large portion of 2023 due to injuries, Waddle would live in this market.
Chris Olave (+3500, 2.8 percent)
Assuming Chris Olave’s high target depth from last year carries over, it’s tough to see him leading the league in receptions. Olave will need a Michael Thomas injury and a role change to be considered. Plus, the New Orleans Saints’ league-easiest schedule could result in a run-heavy attack.
DK Metcalf (+3500, 2.8 percent)
DK Metcalf had a career-high 90 receptions across 17 games last year and is not a serious threat in this market.
Keenan Allen (+3500, 2.8 percent)
Keenan Allen has reached 100 receptions in four seasons but has yet to top 106. Allen was hurt for much of 2022 but was healthy the final eight games and was on pace for 128 receptions during that span. The Los Angeles Chargers are projected to lead the NFL in pass attempts, so you’re betting on the 31-year-old’s health if you like Allen in this market.
Jerry Jeudy (+4500, 2.2 percent)
Jerry Jeudy likely misses a couple of games early in the season while recovering from a hamstring injury and should be entirely off your board in this market.
DeVonta Smith (+5000, 2.0 percent)
The Philadelphia Eagles don’t pass enough with Jalen Hurts for DeVonta Smith to be a serious contender. Although he set the Eagles’ record for single-season receptions, his 95 grabs are still underwhelming.
>> READ: Offensive Rookie of the Year Betting Advice
Calvin Ridley (+5000, 2.0 percent)
Calvin Ridley was on pace for 103 receptions per 17 games when looking at his 2020 and 2021 output. The Jacksonville Jaguars should have significant passing volume, but concerns arise due to his target competition and long layoff from football.
A.J. Brown (+5000, 2.0 percent)
A.J. Brown is a potential threat to lead the NFL in receiving yards after putting up 1,496 last season. His career-high in receptions is only 88, and the big-play receiver is a thin play for this market.
Diontae Johnson (+5000, 2.0 percent)
Diontae Johnson caught 107 passes in 2021 with Ben Roethlisberger before journeyman Mitchell Trubisky and rookie Kenny Pickett limited him to only 86 catches last year. Johnson has at least 144 targets each of the past three seasons. He’ll need a significant step forward from Pickett and a change in offensive game plan to be a contender in this market.
Michael Pittman (+5000, 2.0 percent)
Michael Pittman caught 99 passes last year, benefitting from the Indianapolis Colts throwing the eighth-most times in the NFL. The team now has mobile rookie QB Anthony Richardson, and the Colts project to be bottom-five in pass attempts for the 2023 season.
Tyler Lockett (+6500, 1.5 percent)
Tyler Lockett reached 100 receptions in 2020, but that was his only season with 85 or more. His team has too much target competition to consider him in this market.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (+6500, 1.5 percent)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba should miss time early in the season after undergoing wrist surgery and has an uphill battle to even reach 90 receptions.
Amari Cooper (+6500, 1.5 percent)
Amari Cooper’s career-high in receptions is 92 from 2020. He’s had less than 80 catches in 2018, 2019, 2021 and 2022. He’s not a long shot to consider unless you believe the Cleveland Browns will dial up 40 or more pass attempts per game from Deshaun Watson.
Chris Godwin (+6500, 1.5 percent)
Since 2021, Chris Godwin has been on pace for 118 receptions per 17 games. This stretch includes a miraculously quick recovery from an ACL tear in late 2021. Without Tom Brady, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will likely dial back the passing with Baker Mayfield.
Tee Higgins (+6500, 1.5 percent)
Injuries have kept Tee Higgins from reaching 75 receptions in any season, but he’s still never been on pace for 100 grabs. An injury to Chase and a role change are needed for Higgins to enter consideration.
Drake London (+6500, 1.5 percent)
Drake London went on a tear in the final five games of 2022 when Kyle Pitts was injured. London’s 6.2 receptions per game would equate to 105 in 17 games. The Atlanta Falcons won’t have the requisite pass volume for London to make a run at this market.
Favorite Bet
Amon-Ra St. Brown at +1800 is a bet both Josh Larky and Ryan Reynolds have taken.
Favorite Long Shots
Keenan Allen and Jaylen Waddle are the most attractive options, with odds of 30:1 or longer.
Follow The 33rd Team Podcast Network on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.
