Analysis
8/10/23
6 min read
2023 NFL Betting: 6 Receiving Yards Futures Bets To Consider
Below, you’ll find six receiving yards futures bets to consider. All six were from DraftKings Sportsbook and involved a receiver leading their respective division in yardage. To find these bets within the DraftKings Sportsbook app, go to Division Specials → Rec Leaders.
For added context, all bets will include an implied percentage chance of hitting based on the betting odds. If we recommend a +500 bet, we expect it to hit more often than the implied 16.7 percent of the time.
If you haven’t already, join our FREE Discord, the best place to view futures bets during the off-season and player prop bets during the season. Discord had these six bets first, and we’ll also be active there in-season for fantasy football start-sits/trades, along with DFS showdown AMAs.
Three Best Bets
Amon-Ra St. Brown Most Receiving Yards in NFC North
Odds: +500 (16.7%) on DraftKings
No Chicago Bears receiver looks like a threat to win this after the team had historically low pass volume in 2022. Even if they pass more, QB Justin Fields’ rushing ability should cap the ceiling of DJ Moore. Christian Watson is the Green Bay Packers’ only candidate, but he now catches passes from Jordan Love, not Aaron Rodgers. Even extrapolating Watson’s insanely efficient eight-game pace to close out last year only gets you to 1,111 yards.
Justin Jefferson is the leader in this market, but if he misses two or three games, Amon-Ra St. Brown can usurp him. St. Brown had 1,161 yards last year despite missing almost all of Weeks 4-7 due to injury. There’s also some chance St. Brown is competitive with Jefferson now that Jefferson will compete with rookie Jordan Addison and TE T.J. Hockenson for a full season.
Marquise Brown Most Receiving Yards in NFC West
Odds: +1400 (6.7%) on DraftKings
Through six games of 2022, Marquise Brown was pacing for 181 targets, 122 receptions and 1,374 receiving yards. That was with QB Kyler Murray and without DeAndre Hopkins. While Murray is unlikely to play the first month of 2023, there’s a good chance QBs Colt McCoy or Clayton Tune funnels targets to Brown to keep him live. When Murray returns, the same conditions from early last season are in place: no Hopkins, no other major target competition and a terrible defense that forces Arizona to throw.
The Seattle Seahawks now have a big three with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and there’s a good chance those three cannibalize each other. The San Francisco 49ers should once again spread the ball around, and Brandon Aiyuk led the team last year with just 1,015 yards. The clear favorite is Cooper Kupp, though he only played in nine games (812 receiving yards) due to injury last year, is currently rehabbing a hamstring injury, and just turned 30. Any missed games from Kupp and Brown will become one of the favorites in this market.
Jaylen Waddle Most Receiving Yards in AFC East
Odds: +1000 (9.1%) on DraftKings
The AFC East appears stacked with talent at first glance. While we can eliminate all New England Patriots from contention, the Buffalo Bills have Stefon Diggs, the New York Jets have Garrett Wilson and Jaylen Waddle has his Miami Dolphins teammate Tyreek Hill.
The path for Waddle is quite simple: Hill misses a few games due to injury. Waddle set the rookie receptions record in 2021 (104) then put up 1,356 receiving yards last season while playing with three different quarterbacks. The Dolphins were the NFL’s most efficient passing offense by a decent margin last year, so we just need Hill to miss a couple of games to thread this +1000 bet.
>>READ: Top 68 Fantasy Wide Receivers
Three Other Bets To Consider
Chris Godwin Most Receiving Yards in NFC South
Odds: +550 (15.4%) on DraftKings
It’s tough to envision any Carolina Panthers receiver ruining this bet. Looking at the Atlanta Falcons, pass volume is a big concern, and Kyle Pitts’ injury heavily skewed Drake London’s 866-yard rookie season. London averaged 37 yards per game with Pitts, and that jumped to 70 per game for the 10 contests that Pitts was inactive.
The New Orleans Saints’ Chris Olave is the clear front-runner here, but he’s playing with a new quarterback in Derek Carr, and there’s a real chance Michael Thomas is healthier than last season. Thomas was pacing for nearly 1,000 yards prior to his injury.
Chris Godwin has his own new quarterback in Baker Mayfield, but he out-targeted the soon-to-be 30-year-old Mike Evans in 2022, despite coming off a late-season 2021 ACL tear.
Evans is the aging player, while Godwin, 27, is ascending. Godwin had 104 receptions in 15 games last year, and while much of that was due to Tom Brady, he should be the preferred option for Mayfield, given his high percentage routes from the slot, closer to the line of scrimmage.
Godwin’s odds are being dragged down by Evans (roughly +200) as the clear second-favorite behind Olave, even though Godwin really should be second-most likely for this division.
Jerry Jeudy Most Receiving Yards in AFC West
Odds: +900 (10%) on DraftKings
Davante Adams and Travis Kelce should be the favorites in this market. However, Adams is nearly 31 and will be playing with the worst quarterback of his career. Kelce turns 34 soon, too. The Los Angeles Chargers’ trio of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and rookie Quentin Johnston could very well cannibalize each other, and while Allen is the top target in this offense, he hasn’t reached 1,200 yards in the past five seasons and is also 31.
Behind Adams and Kelce, Jerry Jeudy should be the next most-likely option. While he appeared in 15 games last year, he barely played in three due to injury. Looking at his stats from his 12 healthy games, he averaged 75 yards per game — a 1,275-yard full-season pace. And that was on the Denver Broncos, who were the NFL’s most dysfunctional offense. New coach Sean Payton should provide much-needed stability for this group. Jeudy is a sneaky contender in what initially appears to be a crowded AFC West.
Garrett Wilson Most Receiving Yards in AFC East
Odds: +600 (14.3%) on DraftKings
While Waddle at +1000 is the preferred option, Wilson has some value at +600. The Dolphins could be in for some regression in the passing efficiency department after Tua Tagovailoa averaged a sublime 8.9 yards per pass attempt. Stefon Diggs turns 30 in November, and if Gabe Davis didn’t suffer a high ankle sprain early last season, Diggs’ full-season numbers wouldn’t have been as high.
Wilson had more than 1,100 yards as a rookie, playing with three different — and bad — quarterbacks in Joe Flacco, Zach Wilson and Mike White. Now, he gets 17 games with Aaron Rodgers on a team with no other difference-making receiver to take away targets from him.
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