Fantasy
12/27/23
8 min read
2023 Fantasy Football Week 17: Players To Start, Sit
Josh Larky and Ryan Reynolds present The 33rd Team’s start-sit column for Week 17.
Full fantasy rankings can be found here.
Quarterback
Start: C.J. Stroud (QB8) vs. Titans
C.J. Stroud should return in Week 17 after a two-week absence (concussion) to face a Tennessee Titans pass defense that has struggled all season. Stroud has averaged 8.2 yards per pass attempt on the season, third behind only Brock Purdy (9.7) and Tua Tagovailoa (8.5). The Titans' secondary has yielded 7.4 yards per attempt (ninth-highest).
Tennessee star defensive lineman Jeffery Simmons is out for the game, and two weeks ago, the Titans cut DT Teair Tart cut due to attitude issue. The only way the Titans' secondary was ever protected was via their pass rush — Tennessee's 36.1 percent pressure rate ranks 13th in the league.
With the Titans mathematically eliminated from the playoffs and with the Texans on the fringes of contention at 8-7, expect Stroud to have a big game in his return from the concussion. Prior to the concussion game, he had passed for at least 274 yards in five straight games. We’re expecting another similar effort in Week 17.
Sit: Jordan Love (QB16) vs. Vikings
Jordan Love has reached 18 fantasy points in six of his past seven matchups. Unfortunately, his receiving corps appears to be heavily depleted this week. Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks all likely miss Week 17.
If news changes and one or two of them are on track to suit up, Love will join the low-end fantasy QB1/streaming conversation. However, if Romeo Doubs is his clear-cut WR1 against a blitz-heavy Vikings defense, Love has a terrifying floor.
Reed’s practice participation status will be most important, as he was limited mid-week, but a turf toe-type injury often takes close to a month to fully heal. Reed has been the team’s best target earner closer to the line of scrimmage in the past couple of months. Should Reed suit up, Love rises to QB14, just ahead of Jared Goff in the rankings.
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Running Back
Start: Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB10) vs. Bengals
Isiah Pacheco suffered a concussion Monday and is almost certainly unable to suit up Sunday for the Kansas CIty Chiefs. Jerick McKinnon was placed on injured reserve last week. That all sets up Clyde Edwards-Helaire for a major workload against a Bengals defense that has quit the past few weeks.
In Weeks 14 and 15 (absent Pacheco), Edwards-Helaire averaged 12 carries, four targets, 85 total yards and nearly 15 fantasy points per game. However, that was when he was splitting work with McKinnon, who averaged four carries and three targets per game in that span, vulturing a rushing and receiving touchdown in those games.
Despite the Chiefs’ offensive struggles, they have the third-highest implied team total in betting markets (behind only the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys). Edwards-Helaire should score in this one, and he has 125-total-yard upside here.
Start: Kenneth Walker (RB14) vs. Steelers
Kenneth Walker split work with Zach Charbonnet when he returned from injury in Week 14. In Weeks 15 and 16, Walker pulled ahead, relegating Charbonnet to just three carries and 1.5 targets per game. In that two-game span, Walker averaged 17.5 carries, 2.5 targets and 84 total yards per game.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have ranked as a slightly above-average fantasy matchup for running backs this year, but that’s mainly because they’ve shut down pass-catching running backs. Pittsburgh has ceded 101 rushing yards per game (seventh-most) to the position, and Walker is a big-play threat any time he has the ball in his hands. He’s a safe bet to flirt with 20 carries, and this matchup is one to target for his archetype.
Sit: Javonte Williams (RB33) at Chargers
Russell Wilson has been benched for Jarrett Stidham, and Courtland Sutton suffered a concussion in Week 17. We are looking at backup quarterback play and a passing attack that has Jerry Jeudy and not much else. Javonte Williams has been under 13 fantasy points in 11 of 14 games this year (79 percent), so Williams' ceiling games have been few and far between — even with Wilson under center.
Williams has struggled with efficiency all season, and he has failed to reach four yards per carry in a game since Week 7. He’s caught more than three passes just once since Week 2. He’s had just six goal line carries on the season, scoring only two rushing touchdowns.
Williams is a sluggish back without an elite role — on an offense that should be lethargic all game. Stay away from this game in fantasy football.
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Wide Receiver
Start: Stefon Diggs (WR7) vs. Patriots
Stefon Diggs has been under nine PPR fantasy points in five of his past six games. He’s ruined many fantasy teams to this point, and many have asked us in our FREE Discord whether they should bench the star receiver in Week 17. Our answer is a resounding no.
Diggs has posted target shares of at least 31 percent in three straight games. He’s had at least 86 air yards in three of his past four. Even last week when Gabe Davis exploded for 130 yards, Diggs still had 33 percent more targets.
Expect Diggs’ production to stabilize sooner rather than later. Plus, he’s reached 15 fantasy points in six of his seven games against the New England Patriots since joining the Buffalo Bills.
Start: Nico Collins (WR15) vs. Titans
Nico Collins struggled in his return from injury last week, catching just four of six targets for 18 yards and a score. However, that came with a mixture of Case Keenum and Davis Mills at quarterback. This week, Collins gets Stroud back, and the wide receiver has massive upside against a pass-funnel Titans defense.
Collins, prior to his Week 14 calf strain, averaged 7.7 targets, 90 receiving yards and 17.6 PPR fantasy points per game. With Tank Dell (broken leg) out, Collins should get funneled double-digit targets from Stroud, and Collins has one of the better chances to crack 100 yards on Sunday.
Sit: Tee Higgins (WR26) at Chiefs
Tee Higgins caught four of eight targets for 61 yards and two scores (22.1 PPR) in Week 15. He then followed that up with five receptions on eight targets for 140 yards and a touchdown (25 PPR). However, those two games were against the Vikings and Steelers, two beatable pass defenses.
This week, Higgins faces the Chiefs, who rank as the fifth-hardest matchup for opposing fantasy receivers. Just eight receivers have reached six receptions against Kansas City, and only four have hit 80 receiving yards against the team.
Last week, the Chiefs held Aidan O’Connell to 62 passing yards, and Jake Browning finally looked like a mediocre backup quarterback in last week’s loss to Pittsburgh. There are better fantasy starts than Higgins this week.
Sit: Garrett Wilson (WR32) at Browns
Last week, Garrett Wilson had nine catches (on 15 targets) and 76 yards. However, that was against the NFL’s worst secondary, the Washington Commanders. Trevor Siemian dropped back 49 times against the Commanders in that matchup and averaged just 4.4 yards per pass attempt.
Against a Browns team that’s a bottom-five matchup for fantasy quarterbacks, the entire New York Jets offense should struggle, and Wilson probably has an even less efficient (and lower volume) version of last week’s game.
Full fantasy rankings can be found here.
Tight End
Start: Gerald Everett (TE8) vs. Broncos
Easton Stick has been in at quarterback for the Los Angeles Chargers over the past three games, and he’s clearly been having breakfast with Gerald Everett each morning. Everett has eight targets in all three games, catching at least five balls in all of them.
He’s become a sneaky bet for volume in this new-look Chargers offense, and the Broncos are the best matchup for fantasy tight ends. When adjusting for opponents faced, tight ends score 3.3 more fantasy points than expected against Denver.
Sit: Dalton Kincaid (TE14) vs. Patriots
When Dawson Knox returned after Buffalo’s Week 13 bye, Dalton Kincaid didn't appear to be affected. He led the team with 42 routes run, getting targeted eight times. Unfortunately, that was probably the ramp-up game for Knox.
In Week 15, Kincaid ran a route on just 68 percent of Josh Allen’s dropbacks, failing to bring in either of his targets. Last week, Kincaid ran just 12 routes to Knox’s 11, even though Allen dropped back 23 times. Kincaid brought in one of two targets for seven yards in that contest.
With dwindling route participation numbers and minimal target volume, Kincaid is a fantasy sit in a tough matchup against the Patriots.
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