Vikings' Priorities: Extensions for Justin Jefferson, Danielle Hunter
Analysis 6/13/23
As of last week, the Minnesota Vikings had three prominent players absent from voluntary OTAs. After Pro Bowl running back Dalvin Cook was released as a cap casualty last Friday, the defending NFC North champs are still missing their best offensive player — Justin Jefferson — and their best defensive player — Danielle Hunter — from full-scale on-field practices as they seek lucrative extensions while under contract.
Jefferson reported to this week’s mandatory minicamp, is attending meetings and hit the field for warm-ups and some non-contact drills. Still, he’s unlikely to practice fully until the two sides reach an agreement. He made the wise decision to attend minicamp, thus creating a better feeling as negotiations continue.
Hunter took the opposite approach by skipping the minicamp and is subject to fines totaling around $50,000 for missing the two-day camp. It’s a mistake for a player under contract, such as Hunter, not to at least show up and “hold in” by attending meetings but not practicing until their contract is extended. Teams rarely fine a player who takes that approach.
With Cook’s release saving $11 million against the 2023 salary cap, the Vikings now have more than $19 million of cap room. This is a sufficient amount — even after all players count in September vs. the top 51 now — to extend Jefferson and Hunter without having to do another extension with quarterback Kirk Cousins (as 2023 is his final year under contract) while the Vikings decide if they want to commit to him long term.
The Jefferson and Hunter deals should not be too difficult to negotiate, which I usually felt was the case with our best players since the market is well-defined. And the team has the cap space in 2023 to handle their extensions once they reach an agreement.
Jefferson Priority No. 1
Jefferson is a three-time Pro Bowler and the reigning NFL Offensive Player of the Year. He is priority No. 1 for Vikings general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah. The Vikings run a passing-dominant offense under Coach Kevin O’Connell (sixth-ranked pass offense last season vs. 28th-ranked run game), leading to Cook's release, who carried a $14.1 million cap number.
Jefferson is clearly the main man for O’Connell and Cousins after a 2023 season with 128 receptions for 1,809 yards (both tops in the league) and nine touchdowns (eight receiving and one rushing). He has the most receiving yards (4,825) for any player in his first three seasons.
Jefferson turns 24 this week and has been a durable player who works hard to improve his craft. The Vikings exercised his fifth-year option in April, so he has two years left on his rookie contract with salaries of $2.4 million this season and $19.743 million (guaranteed) in 2024.
After being traded from the Kansas City Chiefs to the Miami Dolphins last year, Tyreek Hill became the league's highest-paid receiver with his four-year, $120 million extension. Hill is scheduled to earn $28.1 million annually, including his final year before the extension.
Davante Adams is in that same $28 million per year ballpark on the new contract he signed with the Las Vegas Raiders last year after the Green Bay Packers traded him.
The Vikings surely will make Jefferson the highest-paid receiver. And to take him over Hill, they would have to pay Jefferson $36.75 million per year in new money on top of the $22.1 million he has coming under the last two years of his current contract. On a four-year extension which puts Jefferson under contract for six years, the total of $169.1 million averages $28.2 million annually.
Teams never want to rip up contract years, but nearly $37 million per year in new money sounds enormous and would be the most ever (in new money) for a non-quarterback. So for cosmetic reasons, the Vikings could say Jefferson has far outperformed his rookie deal (as the No. 22 overall pick in the 2020 draft). Therefore the team is giving him a brand new contract for $150 million over five years ($30 million per year) with a guarantee of around $100 million, which would surpass Hill’s $72 million in guarantees and a $30 million signing bonus that would jump the $25.5 million Hill received upfront.
If Jefferson continues to perform at a superstar level, they may add incentives and escalators to ensure he remains among the top receivers in terms of future salary. Regardless of the approach taken, it would be highly surprising if they do not extend or sign Jefferson to a new deal before the opening of training camp next month.
The good news for the Vikings cap-wise is they can reduce Jefferson’s $2.4 million base salary this year to $1.010 million (the minimum for a player with three credited seasons) and give Jefferson a $30 million signing bonus that spreads over six years on a four-year extension if the final two years remain intact. That would make Jefferson's cap number $7.785 million in 2023 (including his pro-rated signing bonus from his rookie contract), an increase of $3.61 million over his current cap hit. That’s certainly manageable for this year, and the team will hope for significant increases in the cap as future league revenues climb to cover Jefferson when his cap numbers rise in the future (but he’ll always be a restructuring target).
Adofo-Mensah consistently said Jefferson and the Vikings will reach an agreement. In January, he said, “You got a special player, a special person. Those aren’t problems. Or at least those are champagne problems. We’ll work on solutions.” At the NFL Combine, Adofo-Mensah added, “I don’t want to be the Vikings GM without this guy on our team, so it’s a priority.”
Hunter's Situation More Complicated
However, Adofo-Mensah has not been as forthcoming with positivity on Hunter’s situation — complicated by his injury history (26 games missed over 2020 and 2021 with neck and pectoral injuries). The three-time Pro Bowl defender is coming off a bounce-back season in which he played every game for the first time since 2019 and produced 10.5 sacks, 22 QB hits, 65 tackles and 12 tackles for loss. If he stays healthy, he should be even more effective in future years since 2022 was his first season playing as a 3-4 edge player/outside linebacker after being a 4-3 defensive end in his first six seasons. He also should benefit from new defensive coordinator Brian Flores’ more aggressive scheme.
Hunter earned $20 million last year as part of his previously signed contract and then restructured a $14.4 million per year extension from 2018. They have scheduled him to earn only $5.4 million in base salary and roster bonuses in 2023 after moving significant money from his 2023 pay to 2022. That amount won’t fly for a top edge rusher who is only 28 years old.
The Vikings are counting on Hunter to be the 14.5 sack player he was in 2018 and 2019. They need him to play at or close to that level for the Vikings' defense under Flores to improve on last year’s poor performance (31st-ranked defense). Minnesota traded Za’Darius Smith and signed Marcus Davenport to replace him on the edge, but injuries plagued Davenport during his five years with the New Orleans Saints.
Now that Hunter has seemingly overcome his injury issues, the Vikings should sign him long-term. Minnesota can accomplish it with guarantees and roster bonuses that trigger year-to-year, a large signing bonus, and a per-year average in the league’s top tier. Last year’s sack leader Nick Bosa of San Francisco will soon surpass Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt ($28 million per year) as the top edge rusher. Hunter belongs in the $22-23.5 million per year new money range where Bradley Chubb (Dolphins), Khalil Mack (Chargers) and Maxx Crosby (Raiders) sit behind Watt, Joey Bosa (Chargers, $27 million per year) and Myles Garrett (Browns, $25 million per year).
The fascinating thing about Hunter’s contract situation is the Vikings can do a new contract with him that includes reducing his base salary to a minimum of $1.165 million. Then they can give him a signing bonus of $20 million on a four-year deal and, with his old signing bonus and restructures, he would have a 2023 cap number of $13.785 million which is only $665,000 more than his current cap hit. Even if the team included $1 million in roster bonuses, Hunter must stay on the field to maximize his deal. So a new contract is affordable, at least for this season.
The latest reports indicate there have been trade inquiries on Hunter (after they traded Smith for cap relief).
The Vikings released several veterans due to their high cap numbers, including Cook, wide receiver Adam Thielen and linebacker Eric Kendricks, while trading Smith and seeing cornerback Patrick Peterson and defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson leave in free agency.
With so many departures, Jefferson is a must-extend, and so is Hunter, who the Vikings can’t afford to trade since he is their best pass rusher and losing him would leave their pass rush very shaky.
The pressure is on the Vikings to finalize these deals by training camp or before the regular season, especially if they want to successfully defend their division title or return to the playoffs as a wild-card team.
Jeff Diamond is a former Vikings GM, former Tennessee Titans President and was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. He now works for the NFL agent group IFA based in Minneapolis. Follow him on Twitter at @jeffdiamondnfl.