NFL Analysis
9/24/24
6 min read
Trevor Lawrence Is Salvagable, But Jaguars Must Complete Total Overhaul
Trevor Lawrence is trending in the wrong direction.
On the heels of signing a five-year, $275 million contract extension, Lawrence is having his worst season since his rookie year in 2021. Monday night's 47-10 blowout loss to the Buffalo Bills has the Jaguars reeling with a 0-3 record and the second-worst point differential in the NFL.
Lawrence's numbers are disappointing for one of the league's highest-paid quarterbacks. He's completing a career-low 52.8 percent of his passes with two touchdowns and an interception. His passer rating of 75.1 ranks 26th out of 31 qualified quarterbacks, sitting behind QBs including Skylar Thompson and Will Levis through three weeks.
The Jaguars look like a team ready to fire its head coach after (or during) this season, but not all blame should rest on Doug Pederson.
Lawrence is struggling to live up to his contract and hype as a former No. 1 pick. The Jaguars are on an eight-game losing streak dating back to last season, but there's still a path for Lawrence to salvage his NFL career before it's too late.
Lawrence Is Only Getting Worse Right Now
One of the first things that stands out for Lawrence statistically is his regression as an intermediate passer.
Early in his career, Lawrence found a good amount of success throwing between 10 and 19 yards downfield. What was once his "sweet spot" as a passer is now an area where he's struggling. On 24 intermediate pass attempts in 2024, Lawrence has completed just eight of them for 133 yards, one touchdown, and one interception, per Pro Football Focus.
Lawrence is also regressing when it comes to facing extra pass rushers. A quarterback with 53 career starts in the regular season should be able to be better at identifying the blitz to set protections pre-snap and pick coverages apart after the snap.
Instead, Lawrence looks completely unprepared to handle the blitz. In 2023, his passer rating dropped from 95.9 against a standard pass rush to 68.2 against the blitz. This season, his passer rating dropped from 77.9 to 66.2,
Lawrence's pressure-to-sack rate of 54.5 percent against the blitz this year is unacceptable. That's the second-worst rate in the NFL this season, with Andy Dalton being the only quarterback being sacked more frequently against the blitz.
Whether it's easier "hot" routes or check downs against the blitz, or simply better decision-making from Lawrence, the Jaguars can't afford to struggle this much against extra pressure. The clip below shows a backside drag route that would be an easy throw to replace the rusher underneath on first down, but instead, Lawrence is caught staring at the blitzer before trying to escape the pocket.
The Jaguars (and Lawrence) need to be better prepared for the blitz.
— Tyler Brooke (@TylerDBrooke) September 24, 2024
An extra rusher comes from depth, and instead of finding his checkdown (the drag), Lawrence stares at the rush before trying to escape the pocket. pic.twitter.com/b83SCgWnmR
These signs of regression are disappointing for most quarterbacks but unacceptable for one who's making $55 million a year. Not all of this is Lawrence's fault, however, as the coaching staff isn't doing him many favors.
The Jaguars offense is currently too one-dimensional. Despite their run game ranking 12th in DVOA by FTN Fantasy, they have the fourth-fewest rushing attempts in the NFL. Their 5.4 yards per rushing attempt is also the third-best mark in the league, but the Jaguars aren't leaning enough on their talented backfield duo of Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby.
Some of the situational play-calling also seems flat-out unacceptable. Just look at what the Jaguars "drew up" on a fourth-and-goal situation on Monday night.
Doug Pederson and his staff were supposed to turn things around for Lawrence after the Urban Meyer situation went south in a hurry for Jacksonville. Instead, Pederson is firmly in the hot seat, not halfway through his third season with the team.
Still, some of the blame must fall on Lawrence, who simply needs to avoid taking steps backward in key areas after signing such a massive contract extension this offseason.
Jaguars Need To Take Reins, Force change
Things may not get much better in 2024, but there's still a path for Lawrence to be a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback again in the near future.
A coaching staff overhaul is needed, even if it means Lawrence will have a third different coaching staff in five seasons. Pederson and offensive coordinator Press Taylor simply aren't doing enough to set Lawrence up for success.
The Jaguars could pursue a number of high-profile head coach candidates. Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is expected to be one of the hottest options after turning down offers last season to return to Dan Campbell's coaching staff. His offensive scheme has helped revive Jared Goff's career, which included Pro Bowl honors in 2022 and a trip to the NFC Championship last season.
Other candidates include New Orleans Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, who is reviving Derek Carr's career, and Houston Texans OC Bobby Slowik.
The Jaguars can also work on developing Brian Thomas Jr. into a true No. 1 receiver for Lawrence. The first-round rookie has shown serious flashes in his first three career games, catching 11 passes for 189 yards and a touchdown. His 6-foot-4 frame and dangerous vertical speed make him a legitimate deep threat.
Brian Thomas Jr. is on pace for:
— Daniel Griffis (@DanDGriffis) September 23, 2024
51 RECs, 1199 Yards, 9 TDs#Jaguars Rookie Receiving Records
- RECs: 64 (Justin Blackmon)
- Yards: 865 (Justin Blackmon)
- TDs: 6 (Allen Hurns)
pic.twitter.com/GLXkyHwpmj
The front office will also need to sign, draft, and develop quality offensive linemen to keep the franchise quarterback upright. Pro Football Focus currently has the Jaguars at 27th in pass-blocking grade in the league, with the starting five linemen being credited with 36 pressures and eight sacks allowed.
All of this should help Lawrence return to form, but it won't be an overnight change. The struggles in recent seasons have resulted in some bad habits, particularly against pressure, and he'll need to get back to some basics before he can go back to being viewed as one of the best young quarterbacks in the league.
