NFL Analysis
11/17/24
6 min read
Time to Take Pittsburgh Steelers Seriously as AFC Contenders
It's time for the rest of the NFL to take the Pittsburgh Steelers seriously.
The Steelers came away with a dramatic 18-16 win against the Baltimore Ravens, widely considered a Super Bowl contender, to move to 8-2 on the year. The victory extended Pittsburgh's win streak to five games while giving it some cushion and an outright lead in the AFC North.
For a team that was unsure of its quarterback situation before the start of the season, the Steelers have settled in as legitimate playoff contenders with a competent offense and a downright dominant defense.
The Russ Effect
The Steelers were finding ways to win games with Justin Fields, but the decision to have Russell Wilson take over as their starting quarterback unlocked so much for a team scrambling for answers earlier in the season.
It's not like Wilson had a great game on Sunday. He averaged just 5.7 yards per pass attempt for 205 yards and a costly interception in the red zone. He was also sacked four times, and according to RBSDM, he generated a concerning -0.32 EPA per play.
However, Wilson and the offense did just enough to keep getting into field goal range, allowing Chris Boswell to take over for a perfect 6-for-6 day on field goal attempts.
Wilson hasn't been to be an off-script playmaker like earlier in his career for the Seattle Seahawks. Instead, he's been more focused on getting his teammates the ball and letting them operate after the catch. Sunday's passing chart was the perfect example of what the Steelers have been asking of him.
Wilson is 20-of-23 passes behind the line of scrimmage or fewer than 10 yards downfield. Ascending young star WR George Pickens has caught 14 of Wilson's 20 completions in that area of the field and has been a much more effective weapon in Pittsburgh's offense with Wilson under center.
It was a frustrating start to the season for Pickens, who had zero touchdowns and just one game with more than 60 receiving yards in the six games with Fields as his starting quarterback. That's completely changed in the last four games, with Wilson throwing him the ball, catching 22 passes for 365 yards and two touchdowns.
What's helped unlock Pickens at an even higher level is how efficient he has been on targets 20-plus yards downfield. According to PFF, Pickens has caught an impressive 60 percent of his deep targets for 407 yards and a touchdown, averaging 20.35 yards per deep route run.
For reference, the most efficient route runner in the NFL this season, Nico Collins, has averaged 3.50 yards per route run.
George Pickens is the perfect Russell Wilson moon ball receiver pic.twitter.com/xaqOaDkXl4
— Bobby Football (@Rob__Paul) November 17, 2024
The Steelers never expected to have an explosive, high-flying offense, but Wilson is doing a good job of getting his top playmaker more involved. The result is an efficient version of Wilson, who has limited his mistakes, throwing just two interceptions in four games.
According to NFELO, heading into Sunday, Wilson ranked fifth out of 46 qualified quarterbacks in EPA per dropback, and third in adjusted net yards per pass attempt.
Those numbers are likely to drop after the team's outing on Sunday, but they're still a testament to Wilson's efficiency.
A Suffocating Defense
The Steelers' defense was ranked in the top 10 by DVOA heading into Sunday. That ranking could climb after they stifled an offense featuring the most intimidating two-headed monsters in the league, Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry.
Jackson has held to exactly 0.0 total EPA on Sunday despite throwing for 207 yards and a touchdown. Henry scored a touchdown and had another 31-yard run but was entirely held in check outside of those two plays. In fact, taking out the 31-yard run, Henry averaged less than 3.0 yards per carry, generating 34 yards on his other 12 carries.
The pass rush completely changed the game for the Steelers, which shouldn't be a surprise for a team that features the likes of T.J. Watt and Cam Heyward. It was a group effort this week, as 10 players generated at least one pressure, equaling a 41.7 percent pressure rate on Jackson’s dropbacks.
When Jackson felt pressure, he was completely unable to generate any big plays. On 15 dropbacks where he was under pressure, Jackson generated just two first downs while averaging a brutal 2.8 yards per pass attempt.
The Steelers are completely loaded with linebacker and EDGE depth this season. Even rookie Payton Wilson has had an impact in his first NFL season, but no play of his early career was as impressive as his interception, ripping the ball away from the intended target.
The one and only @genesteratore breaks down an INCREDIBLE play by Payton Wilson pic.twitter.com/VfkLLkzgzk
— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 17, 2024
During Pittsburgh's five-game winning streak, the defense has held opponents to fewer than 20 points in four of them. In fact, in their eight wins, the Steelers have allowed just 13.4 points per game.
What's even scarier for future opponents is that the Steelers weren't even at full strength in their shutdown win against the Ravens. Star pass rusher Alex Highsmith was out with an ankle injury, yet the Steelers still consistently pressured Jackson in the pocket.
This unit is clicking at the right time, and it's generating a reputation as one of the best defenses in the NFL.
The Path Forward
The Steelers don't have the easiest upcoming schedule, but an 8-2 record puts them firmly in the driver's seat for another playoff appearance.
According to Tankathon, the Steelers are right in the middle of the league for remaining strength of schedule. They have upcoming games against the back-to-back Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, a rematch against the Ravens, and an in-state showdown against the Philadelphia Eagles. Their easiest opponents are four games against the Bengals and Browns, but divisional games are never guaranteed.
Still, the Steelers had an 85 percent chance of making the playoffs prior to Sunday's win, and those chances are likely to have skyrocketed after a win against their top competition in the division.
As long as Wilson can keep the offense moving while the defense suffocates opponents, this team could make a serious playoff run.
